This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation.

This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation. Forecasting has long been a challenge and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology and software should allow much better forecasting than transport ministries or regulatory agencies typically observe. Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More attention is paid to risk under privatization than when investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be able to judge traffic studies done by operators and to learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many governments and regulators avoid good demand modeling out of lack of conviction that theory and models can do better than the "old hands" of the sector. This is dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business. For projects amounting to investments of $100-200 million, a cost of $100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting firms are willing to sell guarantees or insurance with their forecasts to cover significant gaps between forecasts and reality. This paper - a product of the Governance, Regulation, and Finance Division, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to increase understanding of infrastructure regulation.

Modeling of Transport Demand explains the mechanisms of transport demand, from analysis to calculation and forecasting. Packed with strategies for forecasting future demand for all transport modes, the book helps readers assess the validity and accuracy of demand forecasts. Forecasting and evaluating transport demand is an essential task of transport professionals and researchers that affects the design, extension, operation, and maintenance of all transport infrastructures. Accurate demand forecasts are necessary for companies and government entities when planning future fleet size, human resource needs, revenues, expenses, and budgets. The operational and planning skills provided in Modeling of Transport Demand help readers solve the problems they face on a daily basis. Modeling of Transport Demand is written for researchers, professionals, undergraduate and graduate students at every stage in their careers, from novice to expert. The book assists those tasked with constructing qualitative models (based on executive judgment, Delphi, scenario writing, survey methods) or quantitative ones (based on statistical, time series, econometric, gravity, artificial neural network, and fuzzy methods) in choosing the most suitable solution for all types of transport applications. - Presents the most recent and relevant findings and research - both at theoretical and practical levels - of transport demand - Provides a theoretical analysis and formulations that are clearly presented for ease of understanding - Covers analysis for all modes of transportation - Includes case studies that present the most appropriate formulas and methods for finding solutions and evaluating results

There is a growing interest in Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), particularly in infrastructure and public services. Under the scope of PPPs, renegotiations are becoming more relevant, as empirical evidence suggests that most PPP projects are inevitably renegotiated, i.e., the original contract needs to be adapted to new and unforeseen circumstances. Renegotiations have a substantial impact on the contract and performance of a PPP and usually represent significant costs for users and taxpayers. However, very little is known about the management and, mainly, the process of renegotiating that will, very likely, occur. This book provides a set of case-studies of PPP renegotiations in the transport sector. The authors illustrate the Portuguese experience, a country that has been using PPP extensively, particularly in transport. The case studies provide an extensive and detailed analysis on each aspect of the project and the renegotiation. What drives renegotiations? Why are some projects more renegotiated than others? What are the results? How can the performance of renegotiation processes be improved? These and other questions provide the basis for the discussions in this book. The novelty and value of the book come mainly from the extent of information available. Each case-study deals with these questions in much more detail than what is common in the case-studies approach.

The EIB performs economic appraisals of the projects it considers for investment. Thereby, it ensures that projects add sufficient value to society to merit support. Beyond considerations of financial profitability to investors, the economic appraisal also addresses the wider value generated by the project to society. This comprises benefits and costs to project final users, the taxpayer and third parties, allowing for all applicable market failures, such as environmental externalities. Since the publication of the first edition of this document in 2013, the EIB has been transformed into the EU Climate Bank. The way it values carbon emissions has been updated, as have various other elements of economic appraisal, in keeping with developments in the specialist literature, policy and practice. This second edition of the document gives the reader an updated view of how economic appraisal is currently conducted at the Bank. It also mentions the areas on which the EIB is currently working to ensure that it is at the forefront of economic appraisal practice.

In 1990, the New Mexico State Highway and Transportation Department (NMSHTD) initiated an ambitious and long-term research project. The project was to define the process for and undertake the development of a statewide multimodal transportation forecasting model. The first activity was an intensive two-day knowledge-sharing and brainstorming session. This report documents the two-day session, and provides an overview of the recommended next steps.

This book aims to help governments and public authorities to establish effective light rail-light metro transit (LRMT) systems, and focuses on use of Public Private Participation (PPP) arrangements. Rather than identify a single approach, we present options and discuss practical issues related to preparing and implementing new LRMT PPP schemes. The approach is focused on providing information that can be used to make informed decisions, adapted to local policy and objectives. The material presented is intended as a practical guide to developing LRMT PPPs in both developed and developing countries. This work endeavors to provide answers to readers questions regarding how to successfully incorporate private sector participation in LRMT with a lesser emphasis on why LRMT and the private sector may be beneficial. The primary focus of this text is guiding the reader from design through to project implementation. It starts from the premise that underlying transport policy decisions will have already been made and that LRMT has already been identified as the appropriate transport solution. We have included some limited discussion of policy and technical issues where these directly impact the LRMT PPP approach. The approach is presented in nine sections, and in preparing it the author drew on current international LRMT PPP experience, through a series of interviews and case studies. The sections covered are: 1. Urban Transport and Light Rail/Light Metro Transit (LRMT) 2. Selected Technical Aspects 3. Incorporating Private Sector Participation in LRMT Initiatives 4. Understanding and Allocating Risk 5. Specifications, Oversight and Performance Management 6. Funding and finance 7. Developing a PPP Agreement 8. Procurement 9. Conclusions and Recommendations