The COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures have put severe strains on the economy. The economic policy response has been strong and generally appropriate, helping counter the negative effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, as the international borders remain shut, the economic contraction is likely to deepen in FY2021. A slow recovery is expected for FY2022 driven by a gradual border reopening. The FSM is facing significant medium-term uncertainty, owing to the possible expiration of grants and other assistance provided under the Compact Agreement with the United States. The FSM is also highly vulnerable to climate change-induced natural disasters.

Economic growth has been volatile since the Covid-19 pandemic, and inflation reached decade-high levels mainly due to higher prices of imported food and energy. High vulnerability to climate change is also intensifying food security concerns. Despite the weak domestic economy, the fiscal and external current accounts posted large surpluses, partly thanks to foreign grants and taxes paid by foreign firms. The high uncertainty around medium-term external financing and economic prospects diminished significantly with the signing of a new Compact of Free Association (COFA) agreement between the FSM and the United States government, which includes larger grants for the next 20 years and will enable much needed public investment and reforms. However, the agreement still needs to be ratified by the US Congress.

Strong and timely containment measures have successfully prevented a domestic COVID-19 outbreak but have also weighed on economic activity. The real GDP is estimated to have contracted by 3.3 percent in FY2020 and is projected to further decline by another 1.5 percent in FY 2021 due to continued travel restrictions. Economic activity is expected to pick up in FY2022, as COVID-related restrictions will be relaxed gradually. The government is currently negotiating the renewal of Compact of Free Association (COFA) financial provisions with the United States, but terms remain uncertain. The government is considering to repeal the SOV Act and a bill on establishing a Digital Economic Zone was submitted to the Parliament recently.

The Pacific region is expected to grow by 4.7% in 2022 and 5.4% in 2023 as most economies emerge from the worst of the pandemic-induced downturn. This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor focuses on building and financing resilience to climate change and disasters. It also explores the impacts on the region of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, such as higher commodity prices.

This issue of the Pacific Economic Monitor explores how the region can reopen and rebuild. Besides safely resuming travel and protecting health, a resilient recovery will depend on promoting fiscal sustainability and strengthening economic management, including regional cooperation to revitalize tourism.

This issue explores how Pacific developing member countries can strengthen their post-pandemic social protection systems to help address long-standing development concerns and boost resilience to further shocks. It assesses individual countries’ economies and outlines ways they could improve their social protection systems, despite depleted resources. Exploring megatrends facing the subregion, including population ageing and migration, it shows how investing in universal social protection policies can have a long-term impact on reducing poverty, vulnerability, and social exclusion.

Nauru faces structural challenges due to its small size and remoteness, and is highly dependent on imports. The narrow revenue base comprises fishing license fees, residual phosphate processing, and revenue from the Regional Processing Center (RPC). Nauru is vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change, as the population inhabit in a narrow coastal area. The health and economic impact of the pandemic has been limited in Nauru, thanks to successful vaccination and containment strategies

Palau is a middle-income micro state in the Pacific (population: 18,000) that relies heavily on tourism and grants, and is exposed to natural disasters. The economy grew strongly at 9.4 percent in FY2015 led by robust tourism and construction activity, but the surge in tourist arrivals strained infrastructure and was tilted to low budget tourism. The fiscal position has improved, but further efforts are needed to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. The outlook is favorable although subject to significant downside risks. The discussions focused on

Although Timor-Leste has made considerable progress in many areas since its independence in 2002, it faces significant medium-term challenges. The nation has pressing development needs, young institutions, and is highly dependent on oil. Oil revenues from active fields, which have been the main source of funding for government spending, are drying up. The non-oil private sector economy remains underdeveloped and lack of good jobs and high youth unemployment are serious concerns.