This accessible course on a central player in modern statistical practice connects models with methodology, without need for advanced math.

First published by Wiley in 1978, this book is being re-issued with a new Preface by the author. The roots of the book lie in the writings of RA Fisher both as concerns results and the general stance to statistical science, and this stance was the determining factor in the author's selection of topics. His treatise brings together results on aspects of statistical information, notably concerning likelihood functions, plausibility functions, ancillarity, and sufficiency, and on exponential families of probability distributions.

During the past half-century, exponential families have attained a position at the center of parametric statistical inference. Theoretical advances have been matched, and more than matched, in the world of applications, where logistic regression by itself has become the go-to methodology in medical statistics, computer-based prediction algorithms, and the social sciences. This book is based on a one-semester graduate course for first year Ph.D. and advanced master's students. After presenting the basic structure of univariate and multivariate exponential families, their application to generalized linear models including logistic and Poisson regression is described in detail, emphasizing geometrical ideas, computational practice, and the analogy with ordinary linear regression. Connections are made with a variety of current statistical methodologies: missing data, survival analysis and proportional hazards, false discovery rates, bootstrapping, and empirical Bayes analysis. The book connects exponential family theory with its applications in a way that doesn't require advanced mathematical preparation.

The author explains the theoretical underpinnings of generalized linear models so that researchers can decide how to select the best way to adapt their data for this type of analysis. Examples are provided to illustrate the application of GLM to actual data and the author includes his Web address where additional resources can be found.

We live in a new age for statistical inference, where modern scientific technology such as microarrays and fMRI machines routinely produce thousands and sometimes millions of parallel data sets, each with its own estimation or testing problem. Doing thousands of problems at once is more than repeated application of classical methods. Taking an empirical Bayes approach, Bradley Efron, inventor of the bootstrap, shows how information accrues across problems in a way that combines Bayesian and frequentist ideas. Estimation, testing and prediction blend in this framework, producing opportunities for new methodologies of increased power. New difficulties also arise, easily leading to flawed inferences. This book takes a careful look at both the promise and pitfalls of large-scale statistical inference, with particular attention to false discovery rates, the most successful of the new statistical techniques. Emphasis is on the inferential ideas underlying technical developments, illustrated using a large number of real examples.

The twenty-first century has seen a breathtaking expansion of statistical methodology, both in scope and influence. 'Data science' and 'machine learning' have become familiar terms in the news, as statistical methods are brought to bear upon the enormous data sets of modern science and commerce. How did we get here? And where are we going? How does it all fit together? Now in paperback and fortified with exercises, this book delivers a concentrated course in modern statistical thinking. Beginning with classical inferential theories - Bayesian, frequentist, Fisherian - individual chapters take up a series of influential topics: survival analysis, logistic regression, empirical Bayes, the jackknife and bootstrap, random forests, neural networks, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, inference after model selection, and dozens more. The distinctly modern approach integrates methodology and algorithms with statistical inference. Each chapter ends with class-tested exercises, and the book concludes with speculation on the future direction of statistics and data science.

The core of this paper is a general set of variational principles for the problems of computing marginal probabilities and modes, applicable to multivariate statistical models in the exponential family.

This book develops the theory of probability and mathematical statistics with the goal of analyzing real-world data. Throughout the text, the R package is used to compute probabilities, check analytically computed answers, simulate probability distributions, illustrate answers with appropriate graphics, and help students develop intuition surrounding probability and statistics. Examples, demonstrations, and exercises in the R programming language serve to reinforce ideas and facilitate understanding and confidence. The book’s Chapter Highlights provide a summary of key concepts, while the examples utilizing R within the chapters are instructive and practical. Exercises that focus on real-world applications without sacrificing mathematical rigor are included, along with more than 200 figures that help clarify both concepts and applications. In addition, the book features two helpful appendices: annotated solutions to 700 exercises and a Review of Useful Math. Written for use in applied masters classes, Probability and Mathematical Statistics: Theory, Applications, and Practice in R is also suitable for advanced undergraduates and for self-study by applied mathematicians and statisticians and qualitatively inclined engineers and scientists.

Aimed at advanced undergraduates and graduate students in mathematics and related disciplines, this engaging textbook gives a concise account of the main approaches to inference, with particular emphasis on the contrasts between them. It is the first textbook to synthesize contemporary material on computational topics with basic mathematical theory.