"People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu

International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. - Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior - Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems - Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)

The widespread belief that tech-savvy, educated millennials are well positioned to handle the challenges of the fourth industrial revolution is unfounded. It does not fully grasp the reality of a flux society, where relevant technological skills and knowledge are continuously changing: no one is permanently tech-savvy. Millennials, like other generations, face the challenge of needing to continually reskill. This has compounded their struggle to begin their careers at a point when there is no longer any guarantee of lifetime employment or retirement at a set age. Shaping the Futures of Work is a timely sociological exploration of the impact of technological innovations on employment. Nilanjan Raghunath proposes that stakeholders such as states, enterprises, and citizens hold equally important roles in ensuring that people can adapt, innovate, and thrive within conditions of flux. A promising model focuses on collaboration and proactive governance. While good governance includes citizen engagement, proactive governance goes one step further, creating inclusive policies, roadmaps, and infrastructure for social and economic progress. This book reveals that lifelong learning and adaptability are imperative, even for well-educated professionals. Using Singapore and Singaporean millennials as a case study, Raghunath examines proactive governance and delivers research and analysis to elucidate career trajectories, pointing to a work ethic that aims to engage with technological futures. Looking at local and global sociological literature to confirm the need for proactive governance, Shaping the Futures of Work suggests that Singaporean millennials – and professionals around the world – need to better prepare themselves for flux, risk, failure, and reinvention for career mobility.

Building Global Infrastructure is the fourth in a series of volumes-Patterns of Potential Human Progress-that uses the International Futures (IFs) simulation model to explore prospects for human development: how development appears to be unfolding globally and locally, how we would like it to evolve, and how better to assure that we move it in desired directions. Earlier volumes addressed the reduction of global poverty, the advance of global education, and the improvement of global health. Volume 4 sets out to tell the story of the future of global infrastructure. The approach used in this book focuses on the question of whether individual societies will be able to meet future infrastructure demands. Related questions include the following: * What is the range of realistically conceivable futures for infrastructure, considering both demand and supply? * How are the demands for infrastructure balanced with the ability to meet these demands, thereby linking the physical and financial treatment of infrastructure? * What are the effects of providing for infrastructure on issues such as economic productivity and health?

What can the generative processes of dynamic ownership reveal about how the urban is experienced, understood and made in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia? Shaping Urban Futures in Mongolia provides an ethnography of actions, strategies and techniques that form part of how residents precede and underwrite the owning of real estate property – including apartments and land – in a rapidly changing city. In doing so, it charts the types of visions of the future and perceptions of the urban form that are emerging within Ulaanbaatar following a period of investment, urban growth and subsequent economic fluctuation in Mongolia’s extractive economy since the late 2000s. Following the way that people discuss the ethics of urban change, emerging urban political subjectivities and the seeking of ‘quality’, Plueckhahn explores how conceptualisations of growth, multiplication, and the portioning of wholes influence residents’ interactions with Ulaanbaatar’s urban landscape. Shaping Urban Futures in Mongolia combines a study of changing postsocialist forms of ownership with a study of the lived experience of recent investment-fuelled urban growth within the Asia region. Examining ownership in Mongolia’s capital reveals how residents attempt to understand and make visible the hidden intricacies of this changing landscape.

The World Cafe is a flexible, easy-to-use process for fostering collaborative dialogue, sharing mutual knowledge, and discovering new opportunities for action. Based on living systems thinking, this innovative approach creates dynamic networks of conversation that can catalyze an organization or community's own collective intelligence around its most important questions. Filled with stories of actual Cafe dialogues in business, education, government, and community organizations across the globe, this uniquely crafted book demonstrates how the World Cafe can be adapted to any setting or culture. Examples from such varied organizations as Hewlett-Packard, American Society for Quality, the nation of Singapore, the University of Texas, and many others, demonstrate the process in action. Along with its seven core design principles, The World Cafe offers practical tips for hosting "conversations that matter" in groups of any size- strengthening both personal relationships and people's capacity to shape the future together.

Strengthening Governance Globally is the fifth volume in the series 'Patterns of Potential Human Progress'. Each volume considers one key aspect of how development unfolds globally and how better to move it in desired directions. This volume identifies the provision of security, the building of government capacity, and the broadening of inclusion of governance on which high-income countries have traditionally made long historical transitions. In contrast, many developing countries today struggle with all three governance transition dimensions simultaneously. Strengthening Governance Globally uses the growing empirical database on governance variables to understand historical change.

Improving Global Health is the third in a series of volumes-Patterns of Potential Human Progress-that uses the International Futures (IFs) simulation model to explore prospects for human development: how development appears to be unfolding globally and locally, how we would like it to evolve, and how better to assure that we move it in desired directions. Earlier volumes addressed the reduction of global poverty and the advance of global education. Volume 3 sets out to tell a story of possible futures for the health of peoples across the world. Questions the volume addresses include: -What health outcomes might we expect given current patterns of human development? -What opportunities exist for intervention and the achievement of alternate health futures? -How might improved health futures affect broader economic, social, and political prospects of countries, regions, and the world?

A broad yet distinctive analysis of the growing political, economic, and social gap existing between the world’s northern and southern hemispheres. Featuring papers selected by the ISA President from the 2006 annual meeting, this upper-level volume examines the genesis of the North-South divide, the ongoing policy problems between developed and lesser developed states, and how these issues influence current and future world politics. An upper-level text ideal for academic libraries, think tanks, and libraries of policy institutions Organized into three distinct focus clusters: Problems afflicting the global South -- trade, development, financial crises, structural adjustment, democratization, human rights, disease; Specific conflicts between North and South -- energy, terrorism, weak states, nuclear weapon proliferation; Solutions to reduce the North-South gap -- foreign aid programs, global media, democratization, political power in the United Nations, the emerging powers phenomenon, transnational social movements, and Northern foreign policy adjustments Tackles the tough questions likely to dominate international relations discourse for decades to come

Combining studies of demography, climate change, technology and innovation, political development, new actors in international development, and global governance frameworks, this book highlights the major underlying determinants of change in the African context and key uncertainties about the continent's future development prospects.