Estimating Terrorism Risk
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Author |
: Henry H. Willis |
Publisher |
: Rand Corporation |
Total Pages |
: 93 |
Release |
: 2006-01-06 |
ISBN-10 |
: 9780833040930 |
ISBN-13 |
: 0833040936 |
Rating |
: 4/5 (30 Downloads) |
Synopsis Estimating Terrorism Risk by : Henry H. Willis
The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for protecting the United States from terrorism. It does so partly through the Urban Areas Security Initiative, though its distribution has been criticized for not reflecting risk. This monograph offers a practical definition of terrorism risk and a method for estimating it that addresses inherent uncertainties. It also demonstrates a framework for evaluating alternative risk estimates. Finally, it makes five recommendations for improving resource allocation.
Author |
: |
Publisher |
: |
Total Pages |
: 0 |
Release |
: 2005 |
ISBN-10 |
: OCLC:1050579478 |
ISBN-13 |
: |
Rating |
: 4/5 (78 Downloads) |
Synopsis Estimating Terrorism Risk by :
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for protecting the United States from terrorism through prevention, preparedness, and response. In part, this goal is achieved through allocation of resources to states and urban areas. The Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) is a DHS grant program designed to enhance security and overall preparedness by addressing unique planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas (DHS, 2004). Although there appears to be agreement among many stakeholders that these allocations should reflect the magnitude of risks to which different areas are exposed, no consensus has emerged on how this might be accomplished. Indeed, the UASI grant program has frequently been criticized for inadequately calculating risk and therefore for failing to distribute resources in proportion to urban areas' shares of total terrorism risk.
Author |
: Henry H. Willis |
Publisher |
: Rand Corporation |
Total Pages |
: 104 |
Release |
: 2007 |
ISBN-10 |
: 9780833039743 |
ISBN-13 |
: 0833039741 |
Rating |
: 4/5 (43 Downloads) |
Synopsis Terrorism Risk Modeling for Intelligence Analysis and Infrastructure Protection by : Henry H. Willis
The Department of Homeland Security is moving increasingly to risk analysis and risk-based resource allocation, a process that is designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. The authors show how a probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assess terrorist risk across cities and within specific cities, and to assist intelligence analysis.
Author |
: Andrew R. Morral |
Publisher |
: Rand Corporation |
Total Pages |
: 0 |
Release |
: 2012 |
ISBN-10 |
: 083307685X |
ISBN-13 |
: 9780833076854 |
Rating |
: 4/5 (5X Downloads) |
Synopsis Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System by : Andrew R. Morral
RAND evaluated a terrorism risk modeling tool developed by the Transportation Security Administration and Boeing to help guide program planning for aviation security. This tool, the Risk Management Analysis Tool, or RMAT, is used by TSA to estimate the terrorism risk-reduction benefits attributable to new and existing security programs, technologies, and procedures. RMAT simulates terrorist behavior and success in attacking vulnerabilities in the domestic commercial air transportation system, drawing on estimates of terrorist resources, capabilities, preferences, decision processes, intelligence collection, and operational planning. It describes how the layers of security protecting the air transportation system are likely to perform when confronted by more than 60 types of attacks, drawing on detailed blast and other physical modeling to understand the damage produced by different weapons and attacks, and calculating expected loss of life and the direct and indirect economic consequences of that damage. This report describes RAND's conclusions about the validity of RMAT for TSA's intended uses and its recommendations for how TSA should perform cost-benefit analyses of its security programs.
Author |
: |
Publisher |
: |
Total Pages |
: |
Release |
: 2006 |
ISBN-10 |
: OCLC:69672389 |
ISBN-13 |
: |
Rating |
: 4/5 (89 Downloads) |
Synopsis Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk by :
Establishing tolerable levels of risk is one of the most contentious and important risk management decisions. With every regulatory or funding decision for a risk management program, society decides whether or not risk is tolerable. The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) is a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) grant program designed to enhance security and overall preparedness to prevent, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism, by providing financial assistance for planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas. After briefly reviewing rationales for risk-based resource allocation and challenges in estimating terrorism risk, this paper compares estimates of terrorism risk in urban areas that received UASI funding in 2004 to other federal risk management decisions. This comparison suggests that UASI allocations are generally consistent with other federal risk management decisions. However, terrorism risk in several cities that received funding is below levels that are often tolerated in other risk management contexts. There are several reasons why the conclusions about terrorism risk being de minimis in specific cities should be challenged. Some of these surround the means used to estimate terrorism risk for this study. Others involve the comparison that is made to other risk management decisions. However, many of the observations reported are valid even if reported terrorism risk estimates are several orders of magnitude low. Discussion of resource allocation should be extended to address risk tolerance and include explicit comparisons, like those presented here, to other risk management decisions.
Author |
: National Research Council |
Publisher |
: National Academies Press |
Total Pages |
: 161 |
Release |
: 2010-09-10 |
ISBN-10 |
: 9780309161527 |
ISBN-13 |
: 0309161525 |
Rating |
: 4/5 (27 Downloads) |
Synopsis Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis by : National Research Council
The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.
Author |
: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Homeland Security. Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment |
Publisher |
: |
Total Pages |
: 40 |
Release |
: 2007 |
ISBN-10 |
: PSU:000061502673 |
ISBN-13 |
: |
Rating |
: 4/5 (73 Downloads) |
Synopsis Terrorism Risk Assessment at the Department of Homeland Security by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Homeland Security. Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment
Author |
: Joel Leson |
Publisher |
: DIANE Publishing |
Total Pages |
: 29 |
Release |
: 2010-11 |
ISBN-10 |
: 9781437929218 |
ISBN-13 |
: 1437929214 |
Rating |
: 4/5 (18 Downloads) |
Synopsis Assessing and Managing the Terrorism Threat by : Joel Leson
Outlines the essential components of risk assessment and management, which entail the following sequential tasks: Critical infrastructure and key asset inventory; Criticality assessment; Threat assessment; Vulnerability assessment; Risk calculation; and Countermeasure identification. Risk assessment and management concepts and methodologies are evolving rapidly. Here, each component is defined and briefly examined. Protocols are supplied to quantify/calculate criticality, threat, vulnerability, and risk. Experience with risk assessment and management are limited in many law enforcement agencies. To assist in reversing this situation, this report supplies capacity building info. that includes promising programs, software, and training references.
Author |
: Frederick Krimgold |
Publisher |
: |
Total Pages |
: 236 |
Release |
: 2003 |
ISBN-10 |
: UOM:39015059180441 |
ISBN-13 |
: |
Rating |
: 4/5 (41 Downloads) |
Synopsis Insurance, Finance, and Regulation Primer for Terrorism Risk Management in Buildings by : Frederick Krimgold
Author |
: W. Kip Viscusi |
Publisher |
: Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages |
: 153 |
Release |
: 2013-03-14 |
ISBN-10 |
: 9781475767872 |
ISBN-13 |
: 1475767870 |
Rating |
: 4/5 (72 Downloads) |
Synopsis The Risks of Terrorism by : W. Kip Viscusi
The September 11, 2001 terrorism attack on the United States has led government officials to rethink anti-terrorism policies and researchers to assess the implications for the study of risk and uncertainty. This book draws on the expertise of eminent researchers in several risk-related fields to assess three substantive areas of concern - risk beliefs, insurance market effects, and policy responses. The risk belief analyses consider several key questions. How do people think about the risks of terrorism? What are their attitudes toward these risks? To what extent are these low probability and highly dramatic risks overestimated? Several chapters present original survey results analyzing these different aspects of terrorism risk assessments. These studies also begin to explore how people might be willing to sacrifice civil liberties to reduce the risk of terrorism and whether perceived terrorism risks are affected by the severity of the outcome and by proximity to past terrorist attacks. The insurance industry incurred financial losses generated by the terrorism attack. The risks had not been foreseen and were not reflected in insurance pricing. These new terrorism risks generated considerable uncertainty for insurance markets, leading to insurance stock price declines that are documented in this book. Subsequently, a stock price rebound occurred, particularly for the higher quality firms. A third pair of essays deals with policy responses to terrorism risks. A central theme of these analyses is that protective actions by one party have fundamental effects on the risks posed to others. Making airlines immune to terrorist attack may shift the terrorism attacks elsewhere, diminishing the net improvement in security. The papers included here examine how resources should be targeted given these offsetting effects. Contributors to this volume include J. David Cummins, Neil A. Doherty, Baruch Fischhoff, Geoffrey Heal, Howard Kunreuther, Cass R. Sunstein, W. Kip Viscusi, and Richard J. Zeckhauser, among others.