This books presents general principles and methodologies of quantitative risk analysis; provides theory and practice of how to evaluate health, transport and education projects and describes how to assess the environmental impact of projects. It looks at how the tools of cost benefit analysis can be applied from the point of view of the private sector, public sector, bankers, and the country as a whole. It encourages analysts to answer a number of key questions that are likely to increase success rather than simply describing techniques. This book as aimed at all concerned with resource allocation and is presented in an accessible fashion. It is required reading at World bank Institute courses.

Project economic analysis is a tool used by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to ensure that ADB operations comply with its Charter. The guidelines in this publication are a revised version of the 1997 edition. The revision responds to the changing development context and ADB operational priorities, and aims to address the recommendations of the ADB Quality-at-Entry Assessments for more methodological work on project economic analysis. The revised guidelines provide general principles for the conduct of project economic analysis, and should be read together with handbooks, technical reports, and other reference materials published by ADB dealing with sector-specific project economic analysis in detail.

Make more informed project investment decisions by knowing what issues to examine in the planning process and how to analyze their impacts Poor or insufficient planning is primarily responsible for the inordinate number of idle and rusting capital facilities around the world, with investment decisions often made on the basis of either intuition or inadequate analysis. Investment Project Design: A Guide to Financial and Economic Analysis with Constraints alerts potential investors and other stakeholders to precipitous changes in the investment milieu as a result of constraints on resources and infrastructure, economic and political turmoil, and population growth. The guide Includes descriptions of specific methods of financial and economic analysis for new investments and for expansion of an existing enterprise Covers project risk assessment, mitigation and avoidance Provides real-life case studies, adapted for presentation, and addresses the design of projects large and small, as well as those in both private and public sectors Features spreadsheet layouts and computations Investment Project Design is the ultimate resource in the methods of designing and appraising investment projects

Climate change represents an increasing threat to the continued development of the people, preservation of ecosystems, and economic growth of Asia and the Pacific. Mainstreaming climate risk management in all aspects of development is thus key to an effective transition to climate-resilient development pathways. ADB's climate risk management framework aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects in Asia and the Pacific. A key step in this framework is the technical and economic valuation of climate-proofing measures. This report describes the conduct of the cost-benefit analysis of climate proofing investment projects. An important message is that the presence of uncertainty about climate change does not invalidate the conduct of the economic analysis of investment projects, nor does it require a new type of economic analysis. However, the presence of uncertainty does require a different type of decision-making process in which technical and economic expertise combine to present decision makers with the best possible information on the economic efficiency of alternative designs of investment projects.

Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.

"Policy-makers often call for expanding public spending on infrastructure, which includes a broad range of investments from roads and bridges to digital networks that will expand access to high-speed broadband. Some point to near-term macro-economic benefits and job creation, others focus on long-term effects on productivity and economic growth. This volume explores the links between infrastructure spending and economic outcomes, as well as key economic issues in the funding and management of infrastructure projects. It draws together research studies that describe the short-run stimulus effects of infrastructure spending, develop new estimates of the stock of U.S. infrastructure capital, and explore the incentive aspects of public-private partnerships (PPPs). A salient issue is the treatment of risk in evaluating publicly-funded infrastructure projects and in connection with PPPs. The goal of the volume is to provide a reference for researchers seeking to expand research on infrastructure issues, and for policy-makers tasked with determining the appropriate level of infrastructure spending"--

Projects: the "cutting edge" of development; Identifying costs and benefits of agricultural projects; Selecting proper values; Comparing costs and benetits; Applying discounted measures of project worth; Financial analysis cosiderations for agricultural projects; Source of assistance for project preparation.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been continuously undertaking measures to enhance the effectiveness of its operations. To improve projects both at the preparation and implementation stages, ADB issued the Guidelines for Economic Analysis of Projects in 1997 as a means to enhancing project quality at entry. The conduct of proper economic analysis helps ensure the efficient use of development funds and public resources and thereby increase aid effectiveness. This practical guide is a supplement to the Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects. It provides an overview of recent methodological developments in cost-benefit analysis as well as suggested improvements in the economic analysis of projects in selected sectors through case studies. These case studies illustrate the application of suggested methodologies, taking into account sector-specific needs, as well as difficulties faced by practitioners in terms of data and time constraints during project processing. It also aims to contribute to ADB’s capacity building initiatives as this will be the main reference material for conduct of economic analysis.

From Nobel Prize–winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a groundbreaking account of how stories help drive economic events—and why financial panics can spread like epidemic viruses Stories people tell—about financial confidence or panic, housing booms, or Bitcoin—can go viral and powerfully affect economies, but such narratives have traditionally been ignored in economics and finance because they seem anecdotal and unscientific. In this groundbreaking book, Robert Shiller explains why we ignore these stories at our peril—and how we can begin to take them seriously. Using a rich array of examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that influence individual and collective economic behavior—what he calls "narrative economics"—may vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises and other major economic events. The result is nothing less than a new way to think about the economy, economic change, and economics. In a new preface, Shiller reflects on some of the challenges facing narrative economics, discusses the connection between disease epidemics and economic epidemics, and suggests why epidemiology may hold lessons for fighting economic contagions.

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