Developing countries in the East Asia Pacific region will see stable economic growth this year, bolstered by a recovery in high-income economies and the market’s modest response so far to the Federal Reserve’s tapering of its quantitative easing, according to the East Asia Pacific Economic Update. Developing East Asia will grow by 7.1 percent this year, largely unchanged from 2013, the report says. As a result, East Asia remains the fastest growing region in the world, despite a slowdown from the average growth rate of 8.0 percent from 2009 to 2013. In China, growth will ease slightly, to 7.6 percent this year from 7.7 percent in 2013. Excluding China, the developing countries in the region will grow by 5.0 percent, slightly down from 5.2 percent last year.

In China, growth will gradually moderate, reflecting intensified policy efforts to address financial vulnerabilities and structural constraints, and place the economy on a more sustainable growth path. In the rest of the region, growth will pick up, as exports firm in line with strengthening global activity, and the impact of domestic adjustment in large ASEAN countries eases. Significant uncertainties remain about the sustainability of the global recovery, and global financial conditions are likely to tighten. The short-term priority in several countries is to address the vulnerabilities and inefficiencies created by an extended period of loose financial conditions and fiscal stimulus. In China, the authorities need to strike a balance between containing growing risks from rising leverage and meeting the indicative growth targets. Over the longer term, the focus in most countries must be on structural reforms to enhance export competitiveness. The report’s special section focuses on education & skills development; international migration; and the policy priorities for the Pacific Island Countries.

The East Asia and Pacific Economic Update provides regular, biannual analyses of development trends and economic policy issues across the East Asia and Pacific region.

In the past 6 months, developing East Asia and Pacific has faced a challenging external environment, but growth has generally remained resilient. Over the next 3 years, growth is expected to ease modestly. China will continue its gradual shift to a more sustainable growth path. Some economies will be affected by low commodity prices and weaker external demand. This outlook is subject to elevated risks. Countries should prioritize monetary and fiscal policies that reduce their exposure to risks and strengthen market confidence. In China, there is a need to reduce leverage. In several countries, action is required to enhance transparency, strengthen accountability, and redefine the role of the state. Efforts to reduce barriers to trade should be redoubled, with a particular focus on non-tariff measures and regulatory barriers, including to trade in services. The region must increase its readiness to benefit from the digital revolution, and in particular develop the essential “analog complements†? to digital technologies.

Despite global economic volatility, growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilient during 2018, and in the first quarter of 2019. The growth outlook for developing EAP is expected to soften in 2019, as China's economic expansion continues to moderate. Downside risks remain, including expected moderated global demand, continued trade tensions, the risk of a faster-thanexpected financial tightening in developed economies, the risk of weaker-than-expected growth in China, and continued financial market volatility. Also, or in combination, these risks could weigh on the· region's growth prospects in the short-to-medium term. To manage global and regional headwinds, developing EAP economies should reduce short-term vulnerabilities and enhance buffers, redouble their commitment to an open, rules-based international trade and investment framework, including through deeper regional economic integration, and deepen structural reforms. The intensification of risks underscores the need to continue to enhance economic security by investing in human capital and strengthen social assistance.

The East Asia and Pacific Economic Update provides regular, biannual analyses of development trends and economic policy issues across the East Asia and Pacific region.

The World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update is a comprehensive, twice-yearly review of the region's economies prepared by the East Asia and Pacific region of the World Bank.

"Despite some financial turbulence, growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilient during the first half of 2018. The growth outlook for the region remains positive. After peaking in 2017, growth in developing EAP is expected to slow modestly in 2018, as China's economic expansion continues to moderate. However, downside risks have significantly intensified. An escalation in trade tensions and heightened financial market turbulence, either due to an acceleration in U.S. monetary policy normalization or contagion from other emerging markets could threaten the region's growth prospects. To navigate uncertainty, developing EAP economies should reduce short-term vulnerabilities and enhance buffers, redouble their commitment to an open, rules-based international trade and investment framework, including through deeper regional economic integration, and deepen structural reforms. The intensification of risks underscores the need to continue to enhance economic security by investing in human capital and strengthen social assistance and insurance programs to increase households' resilience to systemic shocks."

The World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update is a comprehensive, twice-yearly review of the region's economies prepared by the East Asia and Pacific region of the World Bank. In this edition, the report notes that in China, growth slowed to 7.8 percent in 2012 due to rebalancing efforts. Risks emanating from the Eurozone and the U.S. have declined since the middle of last year. While still fragile, there are signs of a turnaround in real activity in high income economies, thus external demand for the East Asia and Pacific region's exports will stabilize this year. Movements in high-income country currencies, such as the yen, are likely to affect trade and investment flows in the region in the short term, but a return to sustained growth in Japan would benefit the region as a whole. An emerging issue is the risk of overheating in some of the larger economies. Policymakers need to continue to be vigilant to react to shocks in the world economy, but be prepared to withdraw stimulus as the world economy recovers. For countries that show some signs of inflationary pressures, it would be a good time to rebuild policy buffers.

"Developing EAP grew slightly faster than anticipated in 2017. The growth ofregional GDP excluding China is forecast to accelerate in 2018, while China's GDP growth is expected to moderate as the economy keeps rebalancing. Major downside risks include volatility associated with faster than expected' monetary policy tightening in advanced economies and rising threat of trade restrictions. Developing EAP countries would need to get ready to respond to increasing interest rates and find ways to raise potential growth in the medium run. Specifically, amid the rising risk of protectionism and changes in the global manufacturing landscape, countries should continue to enhance trade facilitation and integration, increase the effectiveness of schools and education systems and upgrade capabilities to ensure that workers and managers have necessary skills. To provide economic security to the population, policies should focus on strengthening social assistance and insurance programs and increasing resilience to systemic shocks."