Direction of Trade Statistics - September 2016

This December 2016 quarterly issue of Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) provides, for about 160 countries, tables with current data (or estimates) on the value of imports from and exports to their most important trading partners. In addition, similar summary tables for the world, industrial countries, and developing countries are included. The availability of partner data makes it possible to include in direction of trade statistics (DOTS) estimates for current months not only for countries less current or frequent in their reporting but also for countries for which data are not obtainable from other sources. Country pages include lines for all partner countries that have been reported, estimated, or extrapolated. As a result of reporting and processing lags, trade data for a given period are often released before all customs documents for the period have been processed.

International Financial Statistics, September 2016

This October 2016 issue of International Financial Statistics (IFS) is a standard source of statistics on all aspects of international and domestic finance. This issue presents countries newly reporting monetary data for Rwanda using the standardized report forms. Exchange rates in IFS are classified into three broad categories, reflecting the role of the authorities in determining the rates and/or the multiplicity of the exchange rates in a country. Although the method of calculating the US dollar/SDR exchange rate has remained the same, the currencies’ number and weight have changed over time. Their amount in the SDR basket is reviewed every five years. When a country joins the IMF, it is assigned a quota that fits into the structure of existing quotas. Quotas are considered in the light of the member’s economic characteristics and considering quotas of similar countries.

What are Beijing’s objectives towards the developing world and how they have evolved and been pursued over time? Featuring contributions by recognized experts, China Steps Out analyzes and explains China’s strategies in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Latin America, and evaluates their effectiveness. This book explains how other countries perceive and respond to China’s growing engagement and influence. Each chapter is informed by the functionally organized academic literature and addresses a uniform set of questions about Beijing’s strategy. Using a regional approach, the authors are able to make comparisons among regions based on their economic, political, military, and social characteristics, and consider the unique features of Chinese engagement in each region and the developing world as a whole. China Steps Out will be of great interest to students and scholars of Chinese foreign policy, comparative political economy, and international relations.

International Financial Statistics, November 2016

The December 2016 issue of International Financial Statistics (IFS) is a standard source of statistics on all aspects of international and domestic finance. This issue presents countries newly reporting monetary data for Norway using the standardized report forms. In this issue, the following changes have been made: Changes to the group aggregates aligned with those published in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO): (1) Move of China, P. R.: Macao (546) out of Emerging and Developing Asia (505) to Advanced Economies (110); (2) Move of Bolivia (218) and Colombia (233) out of Export Earnings: Nonfuel economies (092) to Export Earnings: Fuel economies (080). Removal of China, P. R.: Macao (546), Latvia (941), and Lithuania (946) out of Export Earnings: Nonfuel economies (092). For countries where multiple exchange rates are in effect, Fund staff estimates of weighted average exchange rates are used in many cases.

This book is the first comprehensive exploration of the impact Brexit might have on both Britain’s and the EU’s role in a rising East Asia. From the internationalization of the renminbi to Hong Kong's fraught political status quo, and from former British colonies exploring their place in the world to America's place in East Asia in the Trump era, the EU plays an influential role in Asia today. However, much of this derives from Britain’s role and interests, even as Asian models were explicitly cited as models for post-Brexit Britain, particularly the Singaporean model. This book will be of value to scholars, policymakers, and journalists seeking to understand what role the EU and Britain will play in the Asian century.

This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the probability of reversals.

According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very unclear, as the fate of institutional and trade arrangements between the United Kingdom and the European Union is uncertain. Financial market sentiment toward emerging market economies has improved with expectations of lower interest rates in advanced economies, reduced concern about China’s near-term prospects following policy support to growth, and some firming of commodity prices. But prospects differ sharply across countries and regions, with emerging Asia in general and India in particular showing robust growth and sub-Saharan Africa experiencing a sharp slowdown. In advanced economies, a subdued outlook subject to sizable uncertainty and downside risks may fuel further political discontent, with anti-integration policy platforms gaining more traction. Several emerging market and developing economies still face daunting policy challenges in adjusting to weaker commodity prices. These worrisome prospects make the need for a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities more urgent than ever.