Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration By Paul D. Newendorp

Petroleum Economics and Risk Analysis: A Practical Guide to E&P Investment Decision-Making, Volume 69, is a practical guide to the economic evaluation, risk evaluation and decision analysis of oil and gas projects through all stages of the asset lifecycle, from exploration to late life opportunities. This book will help readers understand and make decisions with regard to petroleum investment, portfolio analysis, discounting, profitability indicators, decision tree analysis, reserves accounting, exploration and production (E&P) project evaluation, and E&P asset evaluation. - Includes case studies and full color illustrations for practical application - Arranged to reflect lifecycle structure, from exploration through to decommissioning - Demonstrates industry-standard decision-making techniques as applied to petroleum investments in the oil and gas industry

Organizations today face complex decisions and uncertainties that can have a profound impact on their financial stability and strategic direction. Traditional decision-making methods often fall short when it comes to addressing multifaceted issues like financing, product manufacturing, and facility location. These challenges demand a robust framework that quantifies factors, assesses risks, and provides optimal solutions. Without advanced tools and techniques, businesses are at risk of making uninformed decisions that could lead to significant financial losses and missed opportunities. The urgency to equip yourself with these tools is clear. Decision and Prediction Analysis Powered With Operations Research offers a comprehensive solution to these challenges. This book integrates operations research techniques to reframe and solve complex business problems. It provides a detailed exploration of decision analysis tools, such as influence diagrams and decision trees, which help visualize and assess various decision scenarios. By applying these tools, organizations can better understand uncertainties, evaluate risks, and make decisions that maximize expected utility and achieve strategic objectives.

This book presents detailed explanations of how to formulate field development plans for oil and gas discovery. The data and case studies provided here, obtained from the authors’ field experience in the oil and gas industry around the globe, offer a real-world context for the theories and procedures discussed. The book covers all aspects of field development plan processes, from reserve estimations to economic analyses. It shows readers in both the oil and gas industry and in academia how to prepare field development plans in a straightforward way, and with substantially less uncertainty.

This book ​discusses the art and science of economic decision making. It combines logical thinking with analytics, economics, and finance to draw decision insights for the upstream petroleum projects. The book offers useful analysis skills for practitioners in industry, including analysts, engineers, and managers. In addition, advanced undergraduate and graduate students in petroleum engineering, applied petroleum geoscience, industrial engineering, and energy business would benefit from the discussions in this book.

Decision analysis (DA) guides executives toward logical, consistent decisions under uncertainty. This book instructs readers in applying DA to feasibility analysis, project estimation, and project risk management.This is a wholly rewritten and expanded successor to the best-selling first and second editions.The entire investment lifecycle is covered, from conception, to the project plan, to the post-project review, and to a look-back analysis of the capital investment decision.DA applies to all manner of project management (PM) decisions for individuals, government, and non-profit organizations. The book uses a business investment perspective and assumes that maximizing value for the project owner is the objective.DA is a problem-solving process. There are four key features: 1) probabilities and probability distributions express best judgments about risks and uncertainties. 2) The organization has a decision policy expressed as a single metric (the objective function). 3) Probabilities and outcome values combine in the probability-weighting expected value calculation. 4) The organization as a policy to choose the best expected value alternative.This book aims to make decision making clear, simple, and logical. A clear decision policy can be elusive, and the author offers suggestions for making trade-offs among conflicting objectives. Converting the three pillars of project management (cost, schedule, and performance) into project value equivalents makes the trade-offs clear.This book is intended for serious PM students and practitioners. This is an essential concepts and how-to book. The scope is quantitative analysis, from project inception to post-project review. Project cost and schedule modeling, in modest detail, is essential to feasibility analysis and risk management. A general background in PM and corporate planning will be helpful. The methods are quantitative and straightforward. The reader should be comfortable with basic algebra and Microsoft(r) Excel(r).The book has eight pages of Suggested Reading annotated references (plus footnote additions), over 250 figures, approximately 600 Glossary definitions, and over 2400 Index entries. Online supplements include several whitepapers and other documents, example calculation spreadsheets, detailed color images of several important figures, four videos (including a critical chain simulation), and the Utility Elicitation Program (a web app, free for most users).Key topics include: Decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation for calculating outcome distributions and expected values * Probability concepts, including Bayes' rule for value of information analysis * Popular probability distribution types and when they apply * Eliciting expert judgments, with attention to potential cognitive and motivational biases * Recognizing the three pillars project in terms of project value * A 10-step decision analysis process * Project modeling concepts and techniques, with special attention to risk drivers and other correlations * Deterministic and stochastic sensitivity analysis * Decision policy that distinguishes objectives, time value, and risk attitude * @RISK(r) with Microsoft(r) Project for project simulations under uncertainty * Logical, consistent risk policy expressed as a utility function * Merge bias when task chains converge at a merge point * Tail estimate bias when estimating highly uncertain quantities * Optimizer's curse, a portfolio forecasting bias * Winner's curse, a bias characteristic of auctions * Using the best of critical chain and Monte Carlo simulation * Stochastic variance between a deterministic and a stochastic model * Modeling risk and uncertainty using probabilities, probability distributions, explicit formula relationships, correlation coefficients, risk drivers, conditional branching, and rework cycles.

This new edition of the Standard Handbook of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering provides you with the best, state-of-the-art coverage for every aspect of petroleum and natural gas engineering. With thousands of illustrations and 1,600 information-packed pages, this text is a handy and valuable reference. Written by over a dozen leading industry experts and academics, the Standard Handbook of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering provides the best, most comprehensive source of petroleum engineering information available. Now in an easy-to-use single volume format, this classic is one of the true "must haves" in any petroleum or natural gas engineer's library. - A classic for the oil and gas industry for over 65 years! - A comprehensive source for the newest developments, advances, and procedures in the petrochemical industry, covering everything from drilling and production to the economics of the oil patch - Everything you need - all the facts, data, equipment, performance, and principles of petroleum engineering, information not found anywhere else - A desktop reference for all kinds of calculations, tables, and equations that engineers need on the rig or in the office - A time and money saver on procedural and equipment alternatives, application techniques, and new approaches to problems

This book on hydrocarbon exploration and production is the first volume in the series Developments in Petroleum Science. The chapters are: The Field Life Cycle, Exploration, Drilling Engineering, Safety and The Environment, Reservoir Description, Volumetric Estimation, Field Appraisal, Reservoir Dynamic Behaviour, Well Dynamic Behaviour, Surface Facilities, Production Operations and Maintenance, Project and Contract Management, Petroleum Economics, Managing the Producing Field, and Decommissioning.