Pakistan's cotton, textile, and apparel industries are key sectors of the nation's economy; their performance can contribute to either a rise or fall in poverty. These vital industries have faced a variety of challenges and opportunities in recent years, including world cotton price instability, liberalization of the multilateral clothing and textile trade, and sharp swings in the Pakistani macroeconomic situation. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and drawing on a national survey of Pakistani households, the authors of this report evaluate the consequences of several recent or prospective economic changes on Pakistan's cotton, textile, and apparel industries and poverty levels. The economic changes include an increased inflow of foreign capital, higher world cotton and textile prices, government subsidization of the textile industry, increased productivity in the cotton and textile sectors, and other possible developments. By presenting these scenarios, the report offers policymakers and analysts a guide to anticipating and shaping the future of economic growth and poverty reduction in Pakistan.

This book explores the unfinished India–Pakistan Trade normalisation agenda (building upon the themes covered in the book “India-Pakistan Trade: Strengthening Economic Relations” published by Springer in 2014) and discusses the steps that must be undertaken in order to move the bilateral engagement forward. Given the commencement of bilateral state-level talks and the Indian government’s emphasis on South Asian integration, it adds impetus to the trade liberalisation process, while also providing essential recommendations for policymakers in both countries. The unfinished agenda faces obstacles such as the list of items for which export from India to Pakistan continues to be restricted; lack of land borders and seamless cross-border transport services, which hampers the realisation of trade potential; negative reporting in the media, which influences traders’ perceptions; and the continued occurrence of informal trade resulting from inadequacies of formal trade relations. The book examines various sectors, including the agricultural, textiles, automotive and pharmaceutical industries, given their predominance on the list of restricted items for bilateral trade. It also covers studies on unconventional and under-researched themes concerning informal trade, informational barriers to India–Pakistan trade, and opening new land borders for trade – all of which can play a facilitating role in realizing the untapped trade potential between India and Pakistan. The book also includes the second round of the India–Pakistan trade perception survey, which identifies impediments to India–Pakistan bilateral trade and assesses the change in traders’ perceptions since the first round of the survey, which was published in 2014.

The end of the MFA was followed by rising apparel exports, falling prices, and a reallocation of production and employment between countries. There were also significant changes within countries. The first main finding of this report is that export and employment patterns after the MFA/ATC did not necessarily match predictions. While many predicted that production would shift to low-wage countries, this book shows that only 13 percent of variation in export changes post-MFA can be explained by the differences in wage levels. Second, changes in exports are usually, but not always, good indicators of what happens to wages and employment within countries. This is especially important for policy because it shows that simply using exports as a metric of 'success' in terms of helping the poor is not sufficient. Third, the Book identifies the specific ways that changes in the global apparel market affected earnings. The Book shows that wage premiums change in predictable ways: rising (in most cases) in countries that were proactive in adapting to the MFA phase-out and expanded their market shares, and falling in countries that failed to respond in a timely fashion to the changing environment. The Book shows that promoting 'upgrading' (defined as shifting to higher-value goods, shifting up the value chain, or 'modernizing' production techniques) seems to be necessary for sustainable competitiveness in the apparel sector but does not necessarily help the poor. Policies that support upgrading need to be complemented with targeted workforce development to make sure that the most vulnerable workers are not left behind. Having a vision for the evolution of the apparel sector that incorporates developing worker skills seems crucial. Otherwise, less-skilled workers could miss out on opportunities to gain valuable work experience in manufacturing.