This technical note describes bottom-up CIT gap estimation techniques applied by revenue administrations in the following highly experienced countries in this approach: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The main topics included in the descriptions are techniques applied, CIT gap results, advantages and disadvantages of different available options, and future developments and recommendations for any revenue administration interested in starting bottom-up CIT gap estimation programs having no prior experience.

It is generally difficult to measure revenue not collected due to noncompliance, but a growing number of countries now regularly produce and publish estimated revenue losses. Good tax gap analysis enables the detection of changes in taxpayer behavior by consistent estimates over time. This Technical Note sets out the theoretical concepts for personal income tax (PIT) gap estimation, the different measurement approaches available, and their implications for the scope and presentation of statistics. The note also focuses on the practical steps for measuring the PIT gap by establishing a random audit program to collect data, and how to scale findings from the sample to the population.

The IMF Fiscal Affairs Department's Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP) aims to provide a quantitative analysis of the tax gap between potential revenues and actual collections, and this technical note explains the concept of the tax gap for corporate income tax (CIT), and the methodology to estimate CIT gaps. It includes detailed steps to derive the potential CIT base and liability with careful consideration for the theoretical differences between the coverage of statistical macroeconomic data and the actual tax base of CIT, and then compare the estimated results with actual declarations and revenues. Although the estimated gaps following the approach will have margins of errors, it has the advantage of using available data without additional costs of collection and suits initial evaluations of overall CIT noncompliance in a country.

This report is the twelfth edition of the OECD's Tax Administration Series. Containing a wealth of data and other information from 58 jurisdictions, it is intended to be used by tax administration analysts allowing them to understand the design and administration of tax systems in other jurisdictions and to draw cross-border comparisons. While primarily aimed at analysts, it can also be a useful tool for senior tax administration managers or officials in ministries of finance when considering changes in tax system administration. The 2024 edition includes performance-related data, ratios and trends up to the end of the 2022 fiscal year. For the first time since 2019, this edition also examines in more detail the administrative, operational and organisational practices of participating tax administrations. Finally, it contains a special feature which explores how tax administrations are estimating tax gaps. The underlying data for this report comes from the International Survey on Revenue Administration, and in certain areas it also uses information from the Inventory of Tax Technology Initiatives.

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries’ predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally, we model non-parametrically the contemporaneous interdependencies across the United States, the euro area, and China via a conditional kernel density estimation of a joint distribution. Then, we characterize the potential ampli?cation e?ects stemming from other large economies in each region—also with kernel density estimations—and the reaction of all other economies with para-metric assumptions. Importantly, each economy’s predictive density also depends on a set of observable country-speci?c factors. Finally, the use of sampling techniques allows us to aggregate individual countries’ densities into a world aggregate while preserving the non-i.i.d. nature of the global GDP growth distribution. Out-of-sample metrics con?rm the accuracy of our approach.

This paper addresses core challenges that all tax administrations face in dealing with noncompliance—which are now receiving renewed attention. Long a priority in developing countries, assuring strong compliance has acquired greater priority in countries facing intensified revenue needs, and is critical for fairness and statebuilding. Series: Policy Papers

Building on previous FAD work in the tax administration field, this paper defines broad criteria for diagnosing the problems in a country’s tax administration and formulating an appropriate reform strategy. To be effective, this strategy should be based on the size of the tax gap and the country’s particular circumstances. This paper discusses some guiding principles which have provided the basis for successful reforms, including: reducing the tax system’s complexity, encouraging taxpayers’ voluntary compliance, differentiating the treatment of taxpayers by their revenue potential, and ensuring the reform’s effective management. Also discussed are specific bottlenecks that hinder the effectiveness of the tax administration’s operations.

Better designed and implemented fiscal regimes for oil, gas, and mining can make a substantial contribution to the revenue needs of many developing countries while ensuring an attractive return for investors, according to a new policy paper from the International Monetary Fund. Revenues from extractive industries (EIs) have major macroeconomic implications. The EIs account for over half of government revenues in many petroleum-rich countries, and for over 20 percent in mining countries. About one-third of IMF member countries find (or could find) resource revenues “macro-critical” – especially with large numbers of recent new discoveries and planned oil, gas, and mining developments. IMF policy advice and technical assistance in the field has massively expanded in recent years – driven by demand from member countries and supported by increased donor finance. The paper sets out the analytical framework underpinning, and key elements of, the country-specific advice given. Also available in Arabic: ????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????????: ??????? ???????? Also available in French: Régimes fiscaux des industries extractives: conception et application Also available in Spanish: Regímenes fiscales de las industrias extractivas: Diseño y aplicación

The Fund has long played a lead role in supporting developing countries’ efforts to improve their revenue mobilization. This paper draws on that experience to review issues and good practice, and to assess prospects in this key area.

Experts discuss strategies for curtailing tax evasion