Have you ever wondered why even large companies fail when faced with changes in their environment? Would you be surprised to learn that the average life expectancy of a Fortune 500 company is below 50 years? This book presents findings from 19 case studies in multinational companies such as Siemens, Volkwagen, General Electric, Philips and Deutsche Telekom. René Rohrbeck proposes a Maturity Model to assess how prepared a company is to respond to external (disruptive) change. He uses data from 107 interviews with board members, corporate strategists, innovation managers, and corporate foresight professionals to present and discuss best practices. Using illustrations to show the complex interaction of corporate foresight with other units such as innovation and strategic management, René Rohrbeck provides the reader with rich insights on how to make an organization agile and reactive towards change. For scholars this book proposes multiple hypotheses and frameworks for future research.

The world changes like the patterns in a kaleidoscope: trends expand, contract, break up, melt, disintegrate and disappear, while others are formed. Change – as opposed to stasis – is our normal condition, the only certainty in our lives, hence the need to create tools that provide organizations with the means to tackle change and navigate complexity. We must accept the reality of constant change and be prepared for a heavy shift in perspective: interconnection versus separation, acceleration versus linearity and discontinuity versus continuity. Anticipating the future requires more than the traditional predictive models (forecasting) based on the forward projection of past experiences. Advanced methods use anticipation logic (foresight) and build probable scenarios taking into account weak signals, emerging trends, coexisting presents and potential paths of evolution. Corporate foresight is fundamental to interpret and lead change. The two cornerstones of foresight are organization and management. As concerns organization, the authors advocate the separation of research (oriented to the market of tomorrow) from development (oriented to the market of today), the establishment of a foresight unit and the concentration of research activities mainly on the acquisition and recombination of external know-how. As regards management, after an overview of state-of-the-art literature on forecasting methods, the authors propose the implementation of a "future coverage" methodology, which enables companies to measure and verify the consistency between trends, strategic vision and offered products. These organizational and managing tools are then tested in a case study: the Italian company Eurotech SpA, a leader in the ICT sector.

This book sheds light on what has come to be known as corporate foresight and its influence on innovation management. Throughout the book, the contributors examine the practice of corporate foresight and how it may lead to the identification of opportunities for innovation. They also explore the complex processes and conditions that may enable (or impede) the potential of contemporary organizations to capture value from their corporate foresight exercises. Representing an interesting mix of competing ideas and perspectives, the book offers deep insights into the interactive effects of corporate foresight and its contribution to innovation management. This book was originally published as a special issue of Technology Analysis & Strategic Management.

This book proposes that organizational policies are what ensure the institutionalization and sustainability of futures thinking in organizations. It presents several case studies from corporations and other institutions that describe effective use of foresight methods and internal policies to respond to rapid change. The case studies address changing trends in technology, globalization and/or workforce diversity, and the impact on the economic and political well-being of the organization. The editors also develop an organizational capability maturity model for futures thinking as well as providing questions for discussion that promote critical review of each case chapter. This book will inform scholars and organizational leaders how best to utilize foresight methodologies and organizational policies to sustain successful management strategies within futures thinking organizations. Chapter 9 is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.

This is a practical (field) guide to foresight and foresight tools for leaders in business, the public sector and NGOs, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change.

This study investigates the relationships between corporate foresight and management decision-making processes in organizations. It provides an extensive analysis of extant theories of corporate foresight and strategic management, brings in new insights, and presents an in-depth case study exploration of corporate foresight of a European bank.

Unter Szenarioplanung versteht man eine spezielle Methode der Vorhersage zukünftiger politischer, ökonomischer und demographischer Entwicklungen, die das Funktionieren eines Unternehmens beeinflussen können. Diese Technik wird hier von renommierten Vorreitern auf diesem Gebiet ausführlich beleuchtet - so lernt der Manager, verschiedene Implikationen plausibler Ereignisse und Einflüsse systematisch zu durchdenken. (11/97)

Since the mid-1900s, large corporations have been using scenarios, strategic planning, and long term action plans to anticipate and prepare for their futures. Large businesses pioneered the methods of foresight for their own use, and those methods have worked very well for them. But... small business is different. The traditional methods for planning for the future didn't fit small business. Small Business Foresight is designed for small businesses. Written by a professional futurist with over 50 years' experience in small business, the tools and methods described and detailed in this book work. They are designed specifically for small business. Whether your business consists of just you, or includes dozens or even hundreds employees, these methods work! In this book, you will learn about the stages of business growth, the forces of change that impact your business, trends that guide the forces, the importance of scenarios (stories about the future and how to build them), the value of strategic thinking and planning, how to create a long term plan for your business based on the strategies you develop, and more. Much more. Small Business Foresight will help you build a plan for the future of your business.

The forces transforming tomorrow are profound, powerful and accelerating. The Internet, social networks, crowd-sourcing, gaming dynamics, new information and communication technologies, robotics, biotechnology and nanotechnology are all converging to transform everything from agriculture, energy, education and law enforcement to healthcare, manufacturing, banking and finance, retail and transportation. In Foresight 20/20, professional futurists and business forecasters Jack Uldrich and Simon Anderson have developed thirteen scenarios designed to aid the reader in understanding how a variety of technological trends are transforming the world of tomorrow. The trends are exciting and scary, positive or negative, prosaic and profound, and will impact both one's personal or professional life. As Cervantes said centuries ago, "Forewarned, forearmed; to be prepared is half the victory" Foresight 20/20 goes one step further and not only prepares the reader for victory but also instills in th

Marine Design XIII collects the contributions to the 13th International Marine Design Conference (IMDC 2018, Espoo, Finland, 10-14 June 2018). The aim of this IMDC series of conferences is to promote all aspects of marine design as an engineering discipline. The focus is on key design challenges and opportunities in the area of current maritime technologies and markets, with special emphasis on: • Challenges in merging ship design and marine applications of experience-based industrial design • Digitalisation as technological enabler for stronger link between efficient design, operations and maintenance in future • Emerging technologies and their impact on future designs • Cruise ship and icebreaker designs including fleet compositions to meet new market demands To reflect on the conference focus, Marine Design XIII covers the following research topic series: •State of art ship design principles - education, design methodology, structural design, hydrodynamic design; •Cutting edge ship designs and operations - ship concept design, risk and safety, arctic design, autonomous ships; •Energy efficiency and propulsions - energy efficiency, hull form design, propulsion equipment design; •Wider marine designs and practices - navy ships, offshore and wind farms and production. Marine Design XIII contains 2 state-of-the-art reports on design methodologies and cruise ships design, and 4 keynote papers on new directions for vessel design practices and tools, digital maritime traffic, naval ship designs, and new tanker design for arctic. Marine Design XIII will be of interest to academics and professionals in maritime technologies and marine design.