In 1985, the U.S. aerospace industry achieved a $13.1 billion trade surplus and contributed $89.2 billion in shipments to the U.S. economy. Without·aerospace, the U.S. trade balance in high technology industries would--for the first time--have fallen into a deficit. Civil aircraft play a significant role in the U.S. aerospace industry, and U.S. civil aircraft have dominated world markets (particularly the large transport segment) since the development of jet engine aircraft in the 1950s. This dominance has recently been challenged by the emergence of the European Airbus Industrie, which has achieved a significant market position in wide-body aircraft and appears committed to the development of a diversified family of civil aircraft. Industry observers are also concerned about the possibility of Japan entering the large transport competition. In this assessment, the U.S. Department of Commerce examines the prospects for continued international competitiveness of U.S. civil aircraft. The report identifies key factors that will determine the shape of future competition, develops alternative scenarios for the future, and presents-a framework within which developments can be monitored and measured.

Deregulation, higher costs, foreign competition, and financial risks are causing profound changes in civil aviation. These trends are reviewed along with growing federal involvement in trade, technology transfer, technological developments in airframes and propulsion, and military-civil aviation relationships. Policy options to preserve the strength and effectiveness of civil aircraft manufacturing are offered.