This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

Climate Systems Modeling presents an interdisciplinary and comprehensive study of the dynamics of the whole global system. As a comprehensive text it will appeal to students and researchers concerned with any aspect of climatology and the study of related topics in the broad earth and environmental sciences.

In the process of building and using models to comprehend the dynamics of the atmosphere, ocean and climate, the reader will learn how the different components of climate systems function, interact with each other, and vary over time. Topics include the stability of climate, Earths energy balance, parcel dynamics in the atmosphere, the mechanisms of heat transport in the climate system, and mechanisms of climate variability. Special attention is given to the effects of climate change.

Provides students with a solid foundation in climate science, with which to understand global warming, natural climate variations, and climate models. As climate models are one of our primary tools for predicting and adapting to climate change, it is vital we appreciate their strengths and limitations. Also key is understanding what aspects of climate science are well understood and where quantitative uncertainties arise. This textbook will inform the future users of climate models and the decision-makers of tomorrow by providing the depth they need, while requiring no background in atmospheric science and only basic calculus and physics. Developed from a course that the author teaches at UCLA, material has been extensively class-tested and with online resources of colour figures, Powerpoint slides, and problem sets, this is a complete package for students across all sciences wishing to gain a solid grounding in climate science.

A three-tier approach is presented: (i) fundamental dynamical concepts of climate processes, (ii) their mathematical formulation based on balance equations, and (iii) the necessary numerical techniques to solve these equations. This book showcases the global energy balance of the climate system and feedback processes that determine the climate sensitivity, initial-boundary value problems, energy transport in the climate system, large-scale ocean circulation and abrupt climate change.

This textbook presents all aspects of climate system dynamics, on all timescales from the Earth's formation to modern human-induced climate change. It discusses the dominant feedbacks and interactions between all the components of the climate system: atmosphere, ocean, land surface and ice sheets. It addresses one of the key challenges for a course on the climate system: students can come from a range of backgrounds. A glossary of key terms is provided for students with little background in the climate sciences, whilst instructors and students with more expertise will appreciate the book's modular nature. Exercises are provided at the end of each chapter for readers to test their understanding. This textbook will be invaluable for any course on climate system dynamics and modeling, and will also be useful for scientists and professionals from other disciplines who want a clear introduction to the topic.

The social cost of carbon (SCC) for a given year is an estimate, in dollars, of the present discounted value of the damage caused by a 1-metric ton increase in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere in that year; or equivalently, the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions by the same amount in that given year. The SCC is intended to provide a comprehensive measure of the monetized value of the net damages from global climate change from an additional unit of CO2, including, but not limited to, changes in net agricultural productivity, energy use, human health effects, and property damages from increased flood risk. Federal agencies use the SCC to value the CO2 emissions impacts of various policies including emission and fuel economy standards for vehicles, regulations of industrial air pollutants from industrial manufacturing, emission standards for power plants and solid waste incineration, and appliance energy efficiency standards. There are significant challenges to estimating a dollar value that reflects all the physical, human, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change. Recognizing that the models and scientific data underlying the SCC estimates evolve and improve over time, the federal government made a commitment to provide regular updates to the estimates. To assist with future revisions of the SCC, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) requested the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine complete a study that assessed the merits and challenges of a limited near-term update to the SCC and of a comprehensive update of the SCC to ensure that the estimates reflect the best available science. This interim report focuses on near-term updates to the SCC estimates.

As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Fourth Edition is designed to explain the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models. A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book will assist the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today’s wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. Now in full colour throughout and with the addition of cartoons to enhance student understanding the new edition of this successful textbook enables the student to tackle the difficult subject of climate modeling.

As a consequence of recent increased awareness of the social and political dimensions of climate, many non-specialists discover a need for information about the variety of available climate models. A Climate Modelling Primer, Third Edition explains the basis and mechanisms of all types of current physically-based climate models. A thoroughly revised and updated edition, this book assists the reader in understanding the complexities and applicabilities of today’s wide range of climate models. Topics covered include the latest techniques for modelling the coupled biosphere-ocean-atmosphere system, information on current practical aspects of climate modelling and ways to evaluate and exploit the results, discussion of Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), and interactive exercises based on Energy Balance Model (EBM) and the Daisyworld model. Source codes and results from a range of model types allows readers to make their own climate simulations and to view the results of the latest high resolution models. The accompanying CD contains: A suite of resources for those wishing to learn more about climate modelling. A range of model visualisations. Data from climate models for use in the classroom. Windows and Macintosh programs for an Energy Balance Model. Selected figures from the book for inclusion in presentations and lectures. Suitable for 3rd/4th year undergraduates taking courses in climate modelling, economic forecasting, computer science, environmental science, geography and oceanography. Also of relevance to researchers and professionals working in related disciplines with climate models or who need accessible technical background to climate modelling predictions.

The physics and dynamics of the atmosphere and atmosphere-ocean interactions provide the foundation of modern climate models, upon which our understanding of the chemistry and biology of ocean and land surface processes are built. Originally published in 2006, Frontiers of Climate Modeling captures developments in modeling the atmosphere, and their implications for our understanding of climate change, whether due to natural or anthropogenic causes. Emphasis is on elucidating how greenhouse gases and aerosols are altering the radiative forcing of the climate system and the sensitivity of the system to such perturbations. An expert team of authors address key aspects of the atmospheric greenhouse effect, clouds, aerosols, atmospheric radiative transfer, deep convection dynamics, large scale ocean dynamics, stratosphere-troposphere interactions, and coupled ocean-atmosphere model development. The book is an important reference for researchers and advanced students interested in the forces driving the climate system and how they are modeled by climate scientists.