FREE BOOK: 62 pages of "China's Faustian Bargains" as Part I of this book (Click Preview this book) What happens in China is increasingly having repercussions impacting economies around the world. This book reveals a multitude of information hidden in the layers of China’s economy, drawing a wealth of information from materials published only in the Chinese language, in-print and on Chinese-language websites, and previously not accessible to the English-speaking world. Anyone who holds a mutual fund/pension fund may, nowadays, have a portfolio that is subject to repercussions originating from what is going on in China. The story of how Caterpillar fell victim, in 2013, to Enron-like accounting fraud in China, and incurred a loss of a startling US$ 580 million, is by no means an isolated event, but a thing that ordinary investors in the western world need to know about. Nowadays, an ordinary Joe’s investment might be impacted by things that are taking shape in China. Could some Chinese companies, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, possibly become the next Enron-like development? An American professor of financial accounting points out how a peculiar corporate structure used by certain companies originated from China may be a worrisome untoward design. This book enables readers to gain insights into the above noted, as well as many other, important events. This book illustrates how the 135% corporate debt to GDP ratio (the highest among the world’s major economies), vast overcapacity, gigantic property glut, together with the country’s pro-cyclical fiscal structure, may bring China’s GDP annual growth to below 4%, sooner than you can imagine. China has, in 2014, overtaken the United States, not in its size of GDP, but in its size of total corporate debt, and also in the ratio of total corporate debt to GDP, which is 135% as of July 2014. This ratio way exceeds the threshold of 80% that the OECD considers as the maximum safe level for a nation’s corporate-debt-to-GDP ratio. China’s corporate-debt-to-GDP ratio is now a whopping 81% larger than that of the US (which is 75%). This book illustrates how China’s economy is now prone to destabilization from the above, and other factors, such as China’s ongoing bad debt trap, and China’s uniquely pro-cyclical fiscal structure. And, such ominously destabilizing setting is now made worse by China’s already extremely high debt-to-GDP ratio, of 282%. Said pro-cyclical fiscal structure is a key issue almost entirely overlooked hitherto, in studies on China in the English-speaking world. China has an income tax base that is constituted by only less than 2% of the country’s population. Consequently, such fiscal structure is overly reliant on sales taxes and corporate taxes, and this makes China’s economy so much more prone to destabilization than any other major economies in the world. As, in macroeconomics, income tax being counter-cyclical (and hence is congenial to stabilizing the economy) and sales tax/corporate tax being pro-cyclical, effecting a feedback loop that further destabilizes the economy. Such structurally predicated menace is now more debilitating, given China’s extremely high debt-to-GDP ratio. This book elucidates on how, in the decade prior to 2008, causes of China’s double-digit economic growth can be identified as being the initial stage of development, in the nature of a Faustian Bargain. There has been an array of expediencies practiced by Beijing, in the past, that significantly boosted China’s GDP in the short run, but these were at the expense of the economy's long-run sustainable growth. This author identifies said expediencies as China’s Faustian Bargains at work, in the forms of monetized state landlordism, over-leveraging to pursue profligate investments funded by financial repression of household savers, and the decades of perilous expensing-out of the nation’s environmental endowments. All these said expedient GDP boosters bear Faustian consequences, and this book shows how they are now increasingly surfacing, and making the aforesaid significant lowering of GDP growth highly probable. This book illustrates: how China's sub-standard accounting/auditing practices, and the country’s grossly ineffective legal system, may have repercussions, unbeknownst to you, for your investments. How China’s economy fares will have important repercussions for the world. In this era of globalization, China is becoming “everybody’s

If you look carefully at how things are actually made in China - from shirts to toys, apple juice to oil rigs - you see a reality that contradicts every widely-held notion about the world's so-called economic powerhouse. From the inside looking out, China is not a manufacturing juggernaut. It's a Lilliputian. Nor is it a killer of American jobs. It's a huge job creator. Rising China is importing goods from America in such volume that millions of U.S. jobs are sustained through Chinese trade and investment. In Unmade in China, entrepreneur and Georgetown University business professor Jeremy Haft lifts the lid on the hidden world of China's intricate supply chains. Informed by years of experience building new companies in China, Haft's unique, insider’s view reveals a startling picture of an economy which struggles to make baby formula safely, much less a nuclear power plant. Using firm-level data and recent case studies, Unmade in China tells the story of systemic risk in Chinese manufacturing and why this is both really bad and really good news for America.

The rise of China is no doubt one of the most important events in world economic history since the Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially the institutional theory of economic development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly inadequate in explaining China's rise. This book argues that only a radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the West (as incorrectly portrayed by the institutional theory) can fully explain China's growth miracle and why the determined rise of China is unstoppable despite its current 'backward' financial system and political institutions. Conversely, China's spectacular and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a formidable industrial superpower sheds considerable light on the fundamental shortcomings of the institutional theory and mainstream 'blackboard' economic models, and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical episodes such as Africa's enduring poverty trap despite radical political and economic reforms, Latin America's lost decades and frequent debt crises, 19th century Europe's great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial Revolution itself.

In the ever-changing world we live in, where the Portuguese economy languishes in a state of continuous decline, there is a desperate search for answers, explanations, and solutions that seem to be nonexistent. This thought-provoking book delves into the comparative realities of modern China and Portugal, shedding light on the economic, social, and political landscapes of both nations. As Portugal grapples with its fall from its once lofty position as a global power, it looks to China as an exemplar of economic success and societal advancement. But is this Chinese reality as promising as it seems? Through meticulous research and analysis, this book uncovers the hidden details that define the true state of affairs in the so-called "world number one." Drawing parallels between the decline of the world's longest-standing empire, Portugal, and the rise of a new empire from the ashes of poverty, China, this book offers invaluable insights to businessmen, politicians, and individuals seeking to establish trade partnerships, investments, or even a life in China. It serves as a necessary guide for those who wish to understand the Chinese way of thinking, their plans for the world, and what this means for the future of humanity. Written based on a comprehensive six-year study conducted across multiple cities, this book incorporates numerous interviews with citizens from both countries. It goes beyond the surface-level portrayal of China often depicted in media and fantasy films, revealing the hidden truths obscured by legends, Chinese stories, and philosophies. This enlightening work is a must-read for anyone interested in the realities of China and seeks to provide invaluable insights into the future of global economies and markets. Packed with thought-provoking content, rich anecdotes, and compelling analysis, it offers a unique perspective that challenges existing stereotypes and unravels the true essence of China as it exists in the present day. Take the plunge into this captivating narrative and gain a deeper understanding of China, its realities, and its implications for the future. Experience the unparalleled insight and thought-provoking analysis that awaits within the pages of this groundbreaking book. Purchase your copy today and embark on a journey that will shape your perspective on the world.

A study of how China’s changing economy may leave its rural communities in the dust and launch a political and economic disaster. As the glittering skyline in Shanghai seemingly attests, China has quickly transformed itself from a place of stark poverty into a modern, urban, technologically savvy economic powerhouse. But as Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell show in Invisible China, the truth is much more complicated and might be a serious cause for concern. China’s growth has relied heavily on unskilled labor. Most of the workers who have fueled the country’s rise come from rural villages and have never been to high school. While this national growth strategy has been effective for three decades, the unskilled wage rate is finally rising, inducing companies inside China to automate at an unprecedented rate and triggering an exodus of companies seeking cheaper labor in other countries. Ten years ago, almost every product for sale in an American Walmart was made in China. Today, that is no longer the case. With the changing demand for labor, China seems to have no good back-up plan. For all of its investment in physical infrastructure, for decades China failed to invest enough in its people. Recent progress may come too late. Drawing on extensive surveys on the ground in China, Rozelle and Hell reveal that while China may be the second-largest economy in the world, its labor force has one of the lowest levels of education of any comparable country. Over half of China’s population—as well as a vast majority of its children—are from rural areas. Their low levels of basic education may leave many unable to find work in the formal workplace as China’s economy changes and manufacturing jobs move elsewhere. In Invisible China, Rozelle and Hell speak not only to an urgent humanitarian concern but also a potential economic crisis that could upend economies and foreign relations around the globe. If too many are left structurally unemployable, the implications both inside and outside of China could be serious. Understanding the situation in China today is essential if we are to avoid a potential crisis of international proportions. This book is an urgent and timely call to action that should be read by economists, policymakers, the business community, and general readers alike. Praise for Invisible China “Stunningly researched.” —TheEconomist, Best Books of the Year (UK) “Invisible China sounds a wake-up call.” —The Strategist “Not to be missed.” —Times Literary Supplement (UK) “[Invisible China] provides an extensive coverage of problems for China in the sphere of human capital development . . . the book is rich in content and is not constrained only to China, but provides important parallels with past and present developments in other countries.” —Journal of Chinese Political Science

Did you know that millions of normal middle and lower-class Chinese are far wealthier than previously thought, hiding between 6 to 10 trillion dollars of shadow cash? Or that this astounding fact is rarely discussed by mainstream media gleefully driving the narrative that China's economy may be headed for a big slowdown? If not then China: The Big Lie? is right up your alley. In part one of China: The Big Lie? author Mario Cavolo provides a thoroughly researched, on-the ground look at the relationship between this secret wealth and the rest of Chinese society. He uses insightful analysis into topics as varied as the real estate market, online retail and the traditional Chinese family to capture the strength of China's economy. In part two Cavolo uses articles previously published for a U.S. investment website to offer further insight and commentary on his macro-bullish view of both the Chinese and global economy.

Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.

Winner of the Lionel Gelber Prize National Book Critics Circle Award Finalist An Economist Best Book of the Year | A Financial Times Book of the Year | A Wall Street Journal Book of the Year | A Washington Post Book of the Year | A Bloomberg News Book of the Year | An Esquire China Book of the Year | A Gates Notes Top Read of the Year Perhaps no one in the twentieth century had a greater long-term impact on world history than Deng Xiaoping. And no scholar of contemporary East Asian history and culture is better qualified than Ezra Vogel to disentangle the many contradictions embodied in the life and legacy of China’s boldest strategist. Once described by Mao Zedong as a “needle inside a ball of cotton,” Deng was the pragmatic yet disciplined driving force behind China’s radical transformation in the late twentieth century. He confronted the damage wrought by the Cultural Revolution, dissolved Mao’s cult of personality, and loosened the economic and social policies that had stunted China’s growth. Obsessed with modernization and technology, Deng opened trade relations with the West, which lifted hundreds of millions of his countrymen out of poverty. Yet at the same time he answered to his authoritarian roots, most notably when he ordered the crackdown in June 1989 at Tiananmen Square. Deng’s youthful commitment to the Communist Party was cemented in Paris in the early 1920s, among a group of Chinese student-workers that also included Zhou Enlai. Deng returned home in 1927 to join the Chinese Revolution on the ground floor. In the fifty years of his tumultuous rise to power, he endured accusations, purges, and even exile before becoming China’s preeminent leader from 1978 to 1989 and again in 1992. When he reached the top, Deng saw an opportunity to creatively destroy much of the economic system he had helped build for five decades as a loyal follower of Mao—and he did not hesitate.

After leading the world economy for a century, the United States faces the first real challenge to its supremacy in the rise of China. Is economic (or broader) conflict, well beyond the trade war that has already erupted, inevitable between the world’s two superpowers? Will their clash produce a new economic leadership vacuum akin to the 1930s when Great Britain abandoned its leadership role and a rising United States was unwilling to step in to save the global order? In this sweeping and authoritative analysis of the competition for global economic leadership between China and the United States, C. Fred Bergsten warns of the disastrous consequences of hostile confrontation between these two superpowers. He paints a frightening picture of a world economy adopting Chinese characteristics in which the United States, after Trump abdicated much of its role, engages in a self-defeating attempt to “decouple” from its rival. Drawing on more than 50 years of active participation as a policymaker and close observation as a scholar, Bergsten calls on China to exercise constructive global leadership and on the United States to reject a policy of containment, avoid a new Cold War and instead pursue “conditional competitive cooperation” to work with its allies and China to lead, rather than destroy, the world economy.

One of the U.S. government's leading China experts reveals the hidden strategy fueling that country's rise – and how Americans have been seduced into helping China overtake us as the world's leading superpower. For more than forty years, the United States has played an indispensable role helping the Chinese government build a booming economy, develop its scientific and military capabilities, and take its place on the world stage, in the belief that China's rise will bring us cooperation, diplomacy, and free trade. But what if the "China Dream" is to replace us, just as America replaced the British Empire, without firing a shot? Based on interviews with Chinese defectors and newly declassified, previously undisclosed national security documents, The Hundred-Year Marathon reveals China's secret strategy to supplant the United States as the world's dominant power, and to do so by 2049, the one-hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Michael Pillsbury, a fluent Mandarin speaker who has served in senior national security positions in the U.S. government since the days of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, draws on his decades of contact with the "hawks" in China's military and intelligence agencies and translates their documents, speeches, and books to show how the teachings of traditional Chinese statecraft underpin their actions. He offers an inside look at how the Chinese really view America and its leaders – as barbarians who will be the architects of their own demise. Pillsbury also explains how the U.S. government has helped – sometimes unwittingly and sometimes deliberately – to make this "China Dream" come true, and he calls for the United States to implement a new, more competitive strategy toward China as it really is, and not as we might wish it to be. The Hundred-Year Marathon is a wake-up call as we face the greatest national security challenge of the twenty-first century.