Abstract: Although both China and India are labor-abundant and dependant on manufactures, their export mixes are very different. Only one product-refined petroleum-appears in the top 25 products for both countries, and services exports are roughly twice as important for India as for China, which is much better integrated into global production networks. Even assuming India also begins to integrate into global production chains and expands exports of manufactures, there seems to be opportunity for rapid growth in both countries. Accelerated growth through efficiency improvements in China and India, especially in their high-tech industries, will intensify competition in global markets leading to contraction of the manufacturing sectors in many countries. Improvement in the range and quality of exports from China and India has the potential to create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and to act as a powerful offset to the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. However, without efforts to keep up with China and India, some countries may see further erosion of their export shares and high-tech manufacturing sectors.

Young people, hardest hit by the global economic downturn, are speaking out and demanding change. F&D looks at the need to urgently address the challenges facing youth and create opportunities for them. Harvard professor David Bloom lays out the scope of the problem and emphasizes the importance of listening to young people in "Youth in the Balance." "Making the Grade" looks at how to teach today's young people what they need to get jobs. IMF Deputy Managing Director, Nemat Shafik shares her take on the social and economic consequences of youth unemployment in our "Straight Talk" column. "Scarred Generation" looks at the effects the global economic crisis had on young workers in advanced economies, and we hear directly from young people across the globe in "Voices of Youth." Renminbi's rise, financial system regulation, and boosting GDP by empowering women. Also in the magazine, we examine the rise of the Chinese currency, look at the role of the credit rating agencies, discuss how to boost the empowerment of women, and present our primer on macroprudential regulation, seen as increasingly important to financial stability. People in economics - C. Fred Bergsten, American Globalist. Back to basics - The multi-dimensional role of banks in our financial systems.

How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.

Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

99 entries written by leading China scholars. Topics include: The China Model, Future Prospects, Global Economy, Trade, Macroeconomics and Finance, Urbanization, Industry and Markets, Agriculture, Land, Infrastructure and Environment, Labour, Wellbeing and Inequality, Health and Education, Gender, Regional Divergence, and Provincial studies.

Academics, students, the media and the public have been increasingly drawn to China and India in recent years. Both countries were considered sleeping giants and are now turning into the motors of global economic growth. China and India are both ancient civilizations with a rich history and were among the largest economic powers until European colonization in the 19th century. After Indian independence in 1947 and the establishment of the Peoples Republic of China in 1949 both countries shared the view that economic development should be achieved through a self-sustaining economy led and controlled by the government. In the following decades the share of Chinese and Indian global trade decreased significantly. Economic reform in China and India in 1978 and 1991 respectively resulted in an increasing integration into global markets and triggered large economic growth. It is very important to note that although China and India are both rising at the same point of time, they are rising in a different pace. China outperforms India in almost every indicator of economic development. It is the key aim of this study to point out this asymmetry between China and India. Another question is, if India is capable of catching up with China in the future and its effects to Sino-Indian relations. Die Rolle von China und Indien in der Welt hat sich in den letzten Jahren sehr stark gewandelt. Aus Bittstellern wurden Gläubiger und Motoren für das globale Wirtschaftswachstum. Dieses Buch setzt sich mit den ökonomischen Asymmetrien die zwischen Indien und China existieren auseinander. Ein historischer Überblick über die mehr als 2000 Jahre zurückreichenden ökonomischen Beziehungen ist der Ausgangspunkt der Studie. Beide Volkswirtschaften werden anhand von ökonomischen Indikatoren wie Wirtschaftswachstum, Reduzierung von Armut, Integration in internationale Märkte, demographischer Wandel, institutionelle Herausforderungen usw. miteinander verglichen. In einem zweiten Schritt werden die bilateralen Handelsbeziehungen zwischen Indien und China genau analysiert. Mit Hilfe einfacher ökonomischer Methodik werden Gebiete für Kooperation und Konflikte herausgearbeitet und die gegenseitige Wahrnehmung als Handelspartner analysiert. In einem dritten Schritt werden China und Indien im globalen Handel betrachtet. Hierfür wird die Bedeutung von China und Indien als Import- und Exportpartner für die Welt beschrieben und die am häufigsten gehandelten Produkte systematisch aufgelistet. Dabei lässt sich erkennen in welchen geographischen Gebieten und bei welchen Gütern indisch-chinesische Kooperationen oder Konflikte zu erwarten sind. Eine dynamische Analyse untersucht, ob Indien seinen Rückstand auf China aufholen kann und liefert eine Prognose für zukünftige sino-indische Wirtschaftsbeziehungen.

China has a myriad and diverse range of neighbours who are significant in their own right but are also of global importance. Asia accounts for 25% of global GDP.This book evaluates the potential for both co-operation and conflict within the Asian region Border problems and historical problems are still plaguing countries in the region and are affecting the relations between them. China and India have not yet resolved their land frontier issues. Furthermore, China has maritime disputes with Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines. The historical issues among China, Japan, and South Korea make the cooperation between them lack a basis of political mutual trust. Therefore, although there are close trade contacts among these countries, China, Japan, and South Korea have not reached any FTA. In South Asia, because of long-term India-Pakistan conflicts, South Asia's Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has been useless and is unable to effectively promote regional economic cooperation, which is a factor in pushing India to develop towards the East. These unstable factors have not only hindered the formation of long-term institutional arrangements on economic and trade cooperation within the region, but have also caused various unexpected events to disrupt existing cooperation. Throughout this book economic data and analysis is provided which gives an insight into the trade and financial links that bind this region together. Written by experts in China it gives a fascinating view of China's approach to its neighbours. China is assuming a more important role on the world stage but it is important to not forget the key role it plays in its own neighbourhood.

Although both China and India are labor-abundant and dependant on manufactures, their export mixes are very different. Only one product-refined petroleum-appears in the top 25 products for both countries, and services exports are roughly twice as important for India as for China, which is much better integrated into global production networks. Even assuming India also begins to integrate into global production chains and expands exports of manufactures, there seems to be opportunity for rapid growth in both countries. Accelerated growth through efficiency improvements in China and India, especially in their high-tech industries, will intensify competition in global markets leading to contraction of the manufacturing sectors in many countries. Improvement in the range and quality of exports from China and India has the potential to create substantial welfare benefits for the world, and for China and India, and to act as a powerful offset to the terms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid export growth. However, without efforts to keep up with China and India, some countries may see further erosion of their export shares and high-tech manufacturing sectors.