Change of Time and Change of Measure provides a comprehensive account of two topics that are of particular significance in both theoretical and applied stochastics: random change of time and change of probability law.Random change of time is key to understanding the nature of various stochastic processes, and gives rise to interesting mathematical results and insights of importance for the modeling and interpretation of empirically observed dynamic processes. Change of probability law is a technique for solving central questions in mathematical finance, and also has a considerable role in insurance mathematics, large deviation theory, and other fields.The book comprehensively collects and integrates results from a number of scattered sources in the literature and discusses the importance of the results relative to the existing literature, particularly with regard to mathematical finance. It is invaluable as a textbook for graduate-level courses and students or a handy reference for researchers and practitioners in financial mathematics and econometrics.

This book is devoted to the history of Change of Time Methods (CTM), the connections of CTM to stochastic volatilities and finance, fundamental aspects of the theory of CTM, basic concepts, and its properties. An emphasis is given on many applications of CTM in financial and energy markets, and the presented numerical examples are based on real data. The change of time method is applied to derive the well-known Black-Scholes formula for European call options, and to derive an explicit option pricing formula for a European call option for a mean-reverting model for commodity prices. Explicit formulas are also derived for variance and volatility swaps for financial markets with a stochastic volatility following a classical and delayed Heston model. The CTM is applied to price financial and energy derivatives for one-factor and multi-factor alpha-stable Levy-based models. Readers should have a basic knowledge of probability and statistics, and some familiarity with stochastic processes, such as Brownian motion, Levy process and martingale.

This celebrated volume gives an accessible introduction to stochastic integrals, stochastic differential equations, excursion theory and the general theory of processes.

This book presents a concise treatment of stochastic calculus and its applications. It gives a simple but rigorous treatment of the subject including a range of advanced topics, it is useful for practitioners who use advanced theoretical results. It covers advanced applications, such as models in mathematical finance, biology and engineering.Self-contained and unified in presentation, the book contains many solved examples and exercises. It may be used as a textbook by advanced undergraduates and graduate students in stochastic calculus and financial mathematics. It is also suitable for practitioners who wish to gain an understanding or working knowledge of the subject. For mathematicians, this book could be a first text on stochastic calculus; it is good companion to more advanced texts by a way of examples and exercises. For people from other fields, it provides a way to gain a working knowledge of stochastic calculus. It shows all readers the applications of stochastic calculus methods and takes readers to the technical level required in research and sophisticated modelling.This second edition contains a new chapter on bonds, interest rates and their options. New materials include more worked out examples in all chapters, best estimators, more results on change of time, change of measure, random measures, new results on exotic options, FX options, stochastic and implied volatility, models of the age-dependent branching process and the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model in biology, non-linear filtering in engineering and five new figures.Instructors can obtain slides of the text from the author./a

This book discloses a fascinating connection between optimal stopping problems in probability and free-boundary problems. It focuses on key examples and the theory of optimal stopping is exposed at its basic principles in discrete and continuous time covering martingale and Markovian methods. Methods of solution explained range from change of time, space, and measure, to more recent ones such as local time-space calculus and nonlinear integral equations. A chapter on stochastic processes makes the material more accessible. The book will appeal to those wishing to master stochastic calculus via fundamental examples. Areas of application include financial mathematics, financial engineering, and mathematical statistics.

A highly readable introduction to stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations, this book combines developments of the basic theory with applications. It is written in a style suitable for the text of a graduate course in stochastic calculus, following a course in probability. Using the modern approach, the stochastic integral is defined for predictable integrands and local martingales; then It’s change of variable formula is developed for continuous martingales. Applications include a characterization of Brownian motion, Hermite polynomials of martingales, the Feynman–Kac functional and the Schrödinger equation. For Brownian motion, the topics of local time, reflected Brownian motion, and time change are discussed. New to the second edition are a discussion of the Cameron–Martin–Girsanov transformation and a final chapter which provides an introduction to stochastic differential equations, as well as many exercises for classroom use. This book will be a valuable resource to all mathematicians, statisticians, economists, and engineers employing the modern tools of stochastic analysis. The text also proves that stochastic integration has made an important impact on mathematical progress over the last decades and that stochastic calculus has become one of the most powerful tools in modern probability theory. —Journal of the American Statistical Association An attractive text...written in [a] lean and precise style...eminently readable. Especially pleasant are the care and attention devoted to details... A very fine book. —Mathematical Reviews

Modelling with the Ito integral or stochastic differential equations has become increasingly important in various applied fields, including physics, biology, chemistry and finance. However, stochastic calculus is based on a deep mathematical theory. This book is suitable for the reader without a deep mathematical background. It gives an elementary introduction to that area of probability theory, without burdening the reader with a great deal of measure theory. Applications are taken from stochastic finance. In particular, the Black -- Scholes option pricing formula is derived. The book can serve as a text for a course on stochastic calculus for non-mathematicians or as elementary reading material for anyone who wants to learn about Ito calculus and/or stochastic finance.

Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities is devoted to the modeling and pricing of various kinds of swaps, such as those for variance, volatility, covariance, correlation, for financial and energy markets with different stochastic volatilities, which include CIR process, regime-switching, delayed, mean-reverting, multi-factor, fractional, Levy-based, semi-Markov and COGARCH(1,1). One of the main methods used in this book is change of time method. The book outlines how the change of time method works for different kinds of models and problems arising in financial and energy markets and the associated problems in modeling and pricing of a variety of swaps. The book also contains a study of a new model, the delayed Heston model, which improves the volatility surface fitting as compared with the classical Heston model. The author calculates variance and volatility swaps for this model and provides hedging techniques. The book considers content on the pricing of variance and volatility swaps and option pricing formula for mean-reverting models in energy markets. Some topics such as forward and futures in energy markets priced by multi-factor Levy models and generalization of Black-76 formula with Markov-modulated volatility are part of the book as well, and it includes many numerical examples such as S&P60 Canada Index, S&P500 Index and AECO Natural Gas Index.

Foundational introduction to the concept that organizations create major impacts by making small changes.

A graduate-course text, written for readers familiar with measure-theoretic probability and discrete-time processes, wishing to explore stochastic processes in continuous time. The vehicle chosen for this exposition is Brownian motion, which is presented as the canonical example of both a martingale and a Markov process with continuous paths. In this context, the theory of stochastic integration and stochastic calculus is developed, illustrated by results concerning representations of martingales and change of measure on Wiener space, which in turn permit a presentation of recent advances in financial economics. The book contains a detailed discussion of weak and strong solutions of stochastic differential equations and a study of local time for semimartingales, with special emphasis on the theory of Brownian local time. The whole is backed by a large number of problems and exercises.