How much of our lives are determined by coincidences, how much by the choices we make? And how do those choices reverberate through time to affect those we love? This sweeping, historically accurate novel tells the story of people caught in the momentous upheavals of World War II, their destinies driven by chance, by the force of their characters and by the courage of a Japanese diplomat. Set in the period from 1918 to 1945, the story explores the impact of historical and political events on individual lives, on friendship, family ties and love. Against the backdrop of Poland, London, Moscow, Japan and America, consumed by her opposing desires — to be independent yet be taken care of - Rachel, the central character, must hold love in the balance and find her own answer to Freud’s famous question: What do women want?

In recent years public attention has focused on an array of low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) events that pose a signif icant threat to human health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, public and private sector responsibilities for the assessment and management of such events have grown because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problem of assessing and balancing LP/ HC risks against the costs and ben if its of risk reduction. The need to help society cope with LP/HC events such as nuclear power plant accidents, toxic spills, chemical plant explosions, and transportation accidents has given rise to the development of a new intellectual endeavor: LP/HC risk analysis. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many f~elds. Analyzing technical, social, and value issues requires the efforts of physicists, biologists, geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, economists, psychologists, ethicists, lawyers, and policy analysts. Included in this volume are papers by authors in each of these disciplines. The papers share in common a focus on one or more of the following questions that are generic to the analysis of LP/HC risks.

Thomas Schelling is a political economist “conspicuous for wandering”—an errant economist. In Choice and Consequence, he ventures into the area where rationality is ambiguous in order to look at the tricks people use to try to quit smoking or lose weight. He explores topics as awesome as nuclear terrorism, as sordid as blackmail, as ineffable as daydreaming, as intimidating as euthanasia. He examines ethical issues wrapped up in economics, unwrapping the economics to disclose ethical issues that are misplaced or misidentified. With an ingenious, often startling approach, Schelling brings new perspectives to problems ranging from drug abuse, abortion, and the value people put on their lives to organized crime, airplane hijacking, and automobile safety. One chapter is a clear and elegant exposition of game theory as a framework for analyzing social problems. Another plays with the hypothesis that our minds are not only our problem-solving equipment but also the organ in which much of our consumption takes place. What binds together the different subjects is the author’s belief in the possibility of simultaneously being humane and analytical, of dealing with both the momentous and the familiar. Choice and Consequence was written for the curious, the puzzled, the worried, and all those who appreciate intellectual adventure.

This book is an attempt to get to the bottom of an acute and perennial tension between our best scientific pictures of the fundamental physical structure of the world and our everyday empirical experience of it. The trouble is about the direction of time. The situation (very briefly) is that it is a consequence of almost every one of those fundamental scientific pictures--and that it is at the same time radically at odds with our common sense--that whatever can happen can just as naturally happen backwards. Albert provides an unprecedentedly clear, lively, and systematic new account--in the context of a Newtonian-Mechanical picture of the world--of the ultimate origins of the statistical regularities we see around us, of the temporal irreversibility of the Second Law of Thermodynamics, of the asymmetries in our epistemic access to the past and the future, and of our conviction that by acting now we can affect the future but not the past. Then, in the final section of the book, he generalizes the Newtonian picture to the quantum-mechanical case and (most interestingly) suggests a very deep potential connection between the problem of the direction of time and the quantum-mechanical measurement problem. The book aims to be both an original contribution to the present scientific and philosophical understanding of these matters at the most advanced level, and something in the nature of an elementary textbook on the subject accessible to interested high-school students.

Biostatistics and Epidemiology/A Primer for Health Professionals offers practical guidelines and gives a concise framework for research and interpretation in the field. In addition to major sections covering statistics and epidemiology, the book includes a comprehensive exploration of scientific methodology, probability, and the clinical trial. The principles and methods described in this book are basic and apply to all medical subspecialties, psychology and education. The primer will be especially useful to public health officials and students looking for an understandable treatment of the subject.

Syndicated columnist Bridget Cormac has built a comfy lifestyle writing about history?s mysteries. When Police Chief Alec Boone drops a 50-year-old murder case in her lap, she?s eager to assist. Friendship kindles into a passionate affair, but their relationship is tested when the two professionals butt heads over the outcome of their findings. An ivory tower researcher, Bridget seeks fame. An honorable lawman, Boone seeks justice. When Boone uses her research to arrest the culprit, an abused woman who killed to protect her child, Bridget is filled with remorse. Can she live with the consequences of her ego-driven quest? Bridget may have to decide which is more important: Her new assignment or her new love.

An introductory guide to the concepts, quantification and mitigation of risk, that plainly explains risk perception, assessment and management and thereby forms a solid starting for students and policy professionals alike.

A man questions everything--his faith, his morality, his country--as he recounts his experience as an interrogator in Iraq; an unprecedented memoir and "an act of incredible bravery" (Phil Klay) "Remarkable... Both an agonized confession and a chilling expose of one of the darkest interludes of the War on Terror. Only this kind of courage and honesty can bring America back to the democratic values that we are so rightfully proud of." --Sebastian Junger Consequence is the story of Eric Fair, a kid who grew up in the shadows of crumbling Bethlehem Steel plants nurturing a strong faith and a belief that he was called to serve his country. It is a story of a man who chases his own demons from Egypt, where he served as an Army translator, to a detention center in Iraq, to seminary at Princeton, and eventually, to a heart transplant ward at the University of Pennsylvania. In 2004, after several months as an interrogator with a private contractor in Iraq, Eric Fair's nightmares take new forms: first, there had been the shrinking dreams; now the liquid dreams begin. By the time he leaves Iraq after that first deployment (he will return), Fair will have participated in or witnessed a variety of aggressive interrogation techniques including sleep deprivation, stress positions, diet manipulation, exposure, and isolation. Years later, his health and marriage crumbling, haunted by the role he played in what we now know as "enhanced interrogation," it is Fair's desire to speak out that becomes a key to his survival. Spare and haunting, Eric Fair's memoir is both a brave, unrelenting confession and a book that questions the very depths of who he, and we as a country, have become.

Approaches to avoid loss of life and limit disruption and damage from flooding have changed significantly in recent years. Worldwide, there has been a move from a strategy of flood defence to one of flood risk management. Flood risk management includes flood prevention using hard defences, where appropriate, but also requires that society learns to live with floods and that stakeholders living in flood prone areas develop coping strategies to increase their resilience to flood impacts when these occur. This change in approach represents a paradigm shift which stems from the realisation that continuing to strengthen and extend conventional flood defences is unsustainable economically, environmentally, and in terms of social equity. Flood risk management recognises that a sustainable approach must rest on integrated measures that reduce not only the probability of flooding, but also the consequences. This is essential as increases in the probability of inundation are inevitable in many areas of the world due to climate change, while socio-economic development will lead to spiralling increases in the consequences of flooding unless land use in floodplains is carefully planned. Flood Risk Science and Management provides an extensive and comprehensive synthesis of current research in flood management; providing a multi-disciplinary reference text covering a wide range of flood management topics. Its targeted readership is the international research community (from research students through to senior staff) and flood management professionals, such as engineers, planners, government officials and those with flood management responsibility in the public sector. By using the concept of case study chapters, international coverage is given to the topic, ensuring a world-wide relevance.