This book is designed to be a practical study in infectious disease dynamics. The book offers an easy to follow implementation and analysis of mathematical epidemiology. The book focuses on recent case studies in order to explore various conceptual, mathematical, and statistical issues. The dynamics of infectious diseases shows a wide diversity of pattern. Some have locally persistent chains-of-transmission, others persist spatially in ‘consumer-resource metapopulations’. Some infections are prevalent among the young, some among the old and some are age-invariant. Temporally, some diseases have little variation in prevalence, some have predictable seasonal shifts and others exhibit violent epidemics that may be regular or irregular in their timing. Models and ‘models-with-data’ have proved invaluable for understanding and predicting this diversity, and thence help improve intervention and control. Using mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics has a very rich history in epidemiology. The field has seen broad expansions of theories as well as a surge in real-life application of mathematics to dynamics and control of infectious disease. The chapters of Epidemics: Models and Data using R have been organized in a reasonably logical way: Chapters 1-10 is a mix and match of models, data and statistics pertaining to local disease dynamics; Chapters 11-13 pertains to spatial and spatiotemporal dynamics; Chapter 14 highlights similarities between the dynamics of infectious disease and parasitoid-host dynamics; Finally, Chapters 15 and 16 overview additional statistical methodology useful in studies of infectious disease dynamics. This book can be used as a guide for working with data, models and ‘models-and-data’ to understand epidemics and infectious disease dynamics in space and time.

Mathematical models are increasingly used to guide public health policy decisions and explore questions in infectious disease control. Written for readers without advanced mathematical skills, this book provides an introduction to this area.

Featuring articles from the prestigious Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, many of which have been revised and updated to include recent developments, the Encyclopedia of Epidemiologic Methods also includes newly commissioned articles reflecting the latest thinking in Cancer Registries Birth Defect Registries Meta Analysis of Epidemiologic Studies Epidemiology Overview Sample Size Sex Ratio at Birth Software Design and Analysis Featuring contributions from leading experts in academia, government and industry, the Encyclopedia of Epidemiologic Methods has been designed to complement existing texts on the subject by providing further extensive, up-to-date coverage of specialised topics and by introducing the reader to the research literature. Offering a wealth of information in a single resource, the Encyclopedia of Epidemiologic Methods Offers an excellent introduction to a vast array of specialised topics Includes in-depth coverage of the statistical underpinnings of contemporary epidemiologic methods Provides concise definitions and introductions to numerous concepts found in the current literature Uses extensive cross-references, helping to facilitate further research, and enabling the reader to locate definitions and related concepts In addition to featuring extensive articles in the areas of descriptive and analytic epidemiology, the Encyclopedia also provides the reader with articles on case-control design and offers substantial coverage of allied statistical methods.

The basis for much of medical public health practice comes from epidemiological research. This text describes current statistical tools that are used to analyze the association between possible risk factors and the actual risk of disease. Beginning with a broad conceptual framework on the disease process, it describes commonly used techniques for analyzing proportions and disease rates. These are then extended to model fitting, and the common threads of logic that bind the two analytic strategies together are revealed. Each chapter provides a descriptive rationale for the method, a worked example using data from a published study, and an exercise that allows the reader to practice the technique. Each chapter also includes an appendix that provides further details on the theoretical underpinnings of the method. Among the topics covered are Mantel-Haenszel methods, rates, survival analysis, logistic regression, and generalized linear models. Methods for incorporating aspects of study design, such as matching, into the analysis are discussed, and guidance is given for determining the power or the sample size requirements of a study. This text will give readers a foundation in applied statistics and the concepts of model fitting to develop skills in the analysis of epidemiological data.

for the design of control programs; in extreme cases (as dis cussed below, by Fine et al. , this volume, and elsewhere) it can happen that immunization programs, although they protect vaccinated individuals, actually increase the overall incidence of a particular disease. The possibility that many nonhuman animal populations may be regulated by parasitic infections is another topic where it may be argued that conventional disciplinary boundaries have retarded investigation. While much ecological research has been devoted to exploring the extent to which competition or predator-prey interactions may regulate natural populations or set their patterns of geographical distribution, few substan tial studies have considered the possibility that infectious diseases may serve as regulatory agents (1,8). On the other hand, the many careful epidemiological studies of the trans mission and maintenance of parasitic infections in human and other animal populations usually assume the host population density to be set by other considerations, and not dynamically engaged with the disease (see, for example, (1,2)). With all these considerations in mind, the Dahlem Workshop from which this book derives aimed to weave strands together -- testing theoretical analysis against empirical facts and patterns, and identifying outstanding problems -- in pursuit of a better un derstanding of the overall population biology of parasitic in fections. For the purpose of the workshop, the term "parasite" was de fined widely to include viruses, bacteria, protozoans, fungi, and helminths.

This work contains the congresses from a 1976 conference at Mainz, which evaluated the possibilities and limitations of mathematical models in the medical field.

Mathematical models are increasingly being used to examine questions in infectious disease control. Applications include predicting the impact of vaccination strategies against common infections and determining optimal control strategies against HIV and pandemic influenza. This book introduces individuals interested in infectious diseases to this exciting and expanding area. The mathematical level of the book is kept as simple as possible, which makes the book accessible to those who have not studied mathematics to university level. Understanding is further enhanced by models that can be accessed online, which will allow readers to explore the impact of different factors and control strategies, and further adapt and develop the models themselves. The book is based on successful courses developed by the authors at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. It will be of interest to epidemiologists, public health researchers, policy makers, veterinary scientists, medical statisticians and infectious disease researchers.

also occurs. New outbreaks of yellow fever have occurred in Colombia and Trinidad and new outbreaks of rift valley fever have occurred in Egypt. Chapter 6, Arenaviruses: The biochemical and physical properties have now been clar ified, and they show a remarkable uniformity in the various viruses constituting the group. The possibility that prenatal infection with LCM may result in hydrocephalus and chorioretinitis has been raised. Serologic surveys have suggested the existence of Lassa virus infection in Guinea, Central African Empire, Mali, Senegal, Cameroon, and Benin, in addition to earlier identification in Nigeria, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Chapter 7, Coronaviruses: New studies have confirmed the important role of these viruses in common respiratory illnesses of children and adults. The viruses are now known to contain a single positive strand of RNA. About 50% of corona virus infections result in clinical illness. About 5% of common colds are caused by strain DC 43 in winter. Chapter 8, Cytomegalovirus: Sections on pathogenesis of CMV in relation to organ transplantation and mononucleosis, as well as sections on the risk and features of con genital infection and disease, have been expanded. There are encouraging preliminary results with a live CMV vaccine, but the questions of viral persistence and oncogenicity require further evaluation.