In 2020, mass anti-government protests erupted across Belarus. The brutal crackdown that followed shocked the international community: the authorities arrested tens of thousands of citizens, shut down independent media and NGOs, and fomented a migrant crisis on the European Union's border. But where many thought Belarus's dictator, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, would fall, he instead turned to Moscow for support, intensifying repression. Many of his opponents fled the country. Then, in February 2022, Belarus provided a staging area for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, allowing troops and missile systems to be based on its territory as large-scale war returned to Eastern Europe once again. Many outsiders now view Belarus as little more than a Russian military district, rather than a sovereign country. Paul Hansbury offers a wide-ranging account of these two related crises. Exploring the domestic origins of Belarus's political chaos and its international ramifications, he also assesses the effectiveness of western sanctions policy, as well as considering the history and prospects of Belarusian statehood. Does Belarus have a future as an independent polity? And how has Russia's war with Ukraine affected Belarusians' views of their dictatorship and the cause of democracy in their country?

In 2020, mass anti-government protests erupted across Belarus. The brutal crackdown that followed shocked the international community: the authorities arrested tens of thousands of citizens, shut down independent media and NGOs, and fomented a migrant crisis on the European Union’s border. But where many thought Belarus’s dictator, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, would fall, he instead turned to Moscow for support, intensifying repression. Many of his opponents fled the country. Then, in February 2022, Belarus provided a staging area for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, allowing troops and missile systems to be based on its territory as large-scale war returned to Eastern Europe once again. Many outsiders now view Belarus as little more than a Russian military district, rather than a sovereign country. Paul Hansbury offers a wide-ranging account of these two related crises. Exploring the domestic origins of Belarus’s political chaos and its international ramifications, he also assesses the effectiveness of western sanctions policy, as well as considering the history and prospects of Belarusian statehood. Does Belarus have a future as an independent polity? And how has Russia’s war with Ukraine affected Belarusians’ views of their dictatorship and the cause of democracy in their country?

In 2020, mass anti-government protests erupted across Belarus. The brutal crackdown that followed shocked the international community: the authorities arrested tens of thousands of citizens, shut down independent media and NGOs, and fomented a migrant crisis on the European Union's border. But where many thought Belarus's dictator, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, would fall, he instead turned to Moscow for support, intensifying repression. Many of his opponents fled the country. Then, in February 2022, Belarus provided a staging area for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, allowing troops and missile systems to be based on its territory as large-scale war returned to Eastern Europe once again. Many outsiders now view Belarus as little more than a Russian military district, rather than a sovereign country. Paul Hansbury offers a wide-ranging account of these two related crises. Exploring the domestic origins of Belarus's political chaos and its international ramifications, he also assesses the effectiveness of western sanctions policy, as well as considering the history and prospects of Belarusian statehood. Does Belarus have a future as an independent polity? And how has Russia's war with Ukraine affected Belarusians' views of their dictatorship and the cause of democracy in their country?

In this fascinating study of unfinished nation-building in Belarus, Grigory Ioffe draws on his two dozen research trips to the country to trace Belarus's history, geography, political situation, society, and economy. The ambivalent relationship between Russia and Belarus results in an identity crisis that is not understood by the West, which leads to Western policies toward Belarus that are based on a fallacy of geopolitical thinking. This book will lead readers to a deeper understanding of Belarus, its relationship with Russia, and its still-forming national identity.

A comprehensive and revelatory history of modern Belarus - from independence to 2020’s contested election In 2020 Belarus made headlines around the world when protests erupted in the aftermath of a fraught presidential election. Andrew Wilson explores both Belarus’s complicated road to nationhood and its politics and economics since it gained independence in 1991. Two new chapters reveal the extent of Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s grip on power, the growth of the opposition movement and the violent crackdown that followed the vote. Wilson also examines the prospects for Europe as a whole of either Lukashenka’s downfall or his survival with Russian support. “Andrew Wilson has done all students of European politics a great service by making the history of Belarus comprehensible and by showing how the future of Belarus might be different than its present.”—Timothy Snyder, author of Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin

Looks at the sources of stability and instability in post-Soviet authoritarian states through the case study of President Lukashenka's firm hold on power in Belarus. In particular, it seeks to understand the role of energy relations, policies, and discourses in the maintenance of this power. The central empirical question Balmaceda seeks to answer is what has been the role of energy policies in the maintenance of Lukashenka's power in Belarus? In particular, it analyzes the role of energy policies in the management of Lukashenka's relationship with three constituencies crucial to his hold on power: Russian actors, the Belarusian nomenklatura, and the Belarusian electorate. In terms of foreign relations, the book focuses on the factors explaining Lukashenka's ability to project Belarus' power in its relationship with Russia in such a way as to compensate for its objective high level of dependency, assuring high levels of energy subsidies and rents continuing well beyond the initial worsening of the relationship in c. 2004. In terms of domestic relations, Balmaceda examines Lukashenka's specific use of those energy rents in such a way as to assure the continuing support of both the Belarusian nomenklatura and the Belarusian electorate.

The escalating rivalry between the EU and Russia in their shared neighborhood creates important economic, political, and legal challenges for the lands in between. Belarus and Ukraine have received proposals of integration from both the EU and Russia. However, the extents to which they accepted these offers differ and result from a multitude of factors as well as their interplay affecting the policy choices of their governments. International integration is a foreign policy question, but it has a strong domestic dimension too. Explaining various integration stances demands considering a country's foreign and internal affairs. Alla Leukavets applies here Putnam's two-level game-theoretical approach in combination with findings from comparative neighborhood Europeanization and democracy promotion studies, as well as Levitsky/Way's linkages-and-leverage-model. She develops various actor-centered and structural explanatory variables and applies them in the subsequent empirical analysis. Her research results benefit from triangulation through primary documents analysis and semi-structured interviews with elites and experts in Minsk, Moscow, Brussels, and Washington, DC. The book analyses how the simultaneity of European and Eurasian integration challenged the two countries to make a major strategic integration choice. The study sheds light on the reasons for and genesis of the Ukraine crisis, and on how external actors, such as the EU, can succeed in facilitating domestic reforms in Eastern Partnership countries.

Just a few years ago, people spoke of the US as a hyperpower-a titan stalking the world stage with more relative power than any empire in history. Yet as early as 1993, newly-appointed CIA director James Woolsey pointed out that although Western powers had "slain a large dragon" by defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War, they now faced a "bewildering variety of poisonous snakes." In The Dragons and the Snakes, the eminent soldier-scholar David Kilcullen asks how, and what, opponents of the West have learned during the last quarter-century of conflict. Applying a combination of evolutionary theory and detailed field observation, he explains what happened to the "snakes"-non-state threats including terrorists and guerrillas-and the "dragons"-state-based competitors such as Russia and China. He explores how enemies learn under conditions of conflict, and examines how Western dominance over a very particular, narrowly-defined form of warfare since the Cold War has created a fitness landscape that forces adversaries to adapt in ways that present serious new challenges to America and its allies. Within the world's contemporary conflict zones, Kilcullen argues, state and non-state threats have increasingly come to resemble each other, with states adopting non-state techniques and non-state actors now able to access levels of precision and lethal weapon systems once only available to governments. A counterintuitive look at this new, vastly more complex environment, The Dragons and the Snakes will not only reshape our understanding of the West's enemies' capabilities, but will also show how we can respond given the increasing limits on US power.