Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Stronger activity, expectations of more robust global demand, reduced deflationary pressures, and optimistic financial markets are all upside developments. But structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term, remain important challenges. Chapter 2 examines how changes in external conditions may affect the pace of income convergence between advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Chapter 3 looks at the declining share of income that goes to labor, including the root causes and how the trend affects inequality. Overall, this report stresses the need for credible strategies in advanced economies and in those whose markets are emerging and developing to tackle a number of common challenges in an integrated global economy.

This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment Report on Barbados. Barbados has a relatively well-developed financial system, including a large offshore sector. The onshore system is dominated by large, regionally active banks. Banking services to the population are also provided by the credit union sector. With a deteriorating fiscal situation and weak growth prospects, Barbados faces considerable macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Although the financial system does not appear to be a source of immediate risk, its position appears to be deteriorating, with implications for systemic stability.

During 2008-2009, the world experienced its worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The crisis followed the effects of the food and fuel price hikes in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, global output contracted by 2 per cent. This 2011 Report on the World Social Situation reviews the ongoing adverse social consequences of these crises after an overview of its causes and transmission.

This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with Barbados and its Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Request for Completion of the Financing Assurances Review, and Modification of Performance Criteria. The Article IV discussions focused on fiscal adjustment, medium-term growth and resilience to climate change and natural disasters. The Barbadian authorities continue to make good progress in implementing the comprehensive Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan aimed at restoring fiscal and debt sustainability, rebuilding reserves, and increasing growth. All program targets for end-June and end-September 2019 have been met. All three structural benchmarks for the second review have also been met. The authorities have continued the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) by completing a review of tariffs and fees charged by SOEs, tightening reporting requirements, and reducing costs. The authorities reached agreement with the External Creditor Committee on a restructuring of external debt to private creditors in October 2019 and launched a debt exchange offer in early November. The IMF Staff proposes modification of the performance criteria relating to the primary balance, net international reserves and net domestic assets.

The agricultural sector accounts for 3.8 percent of the GDP of Barbados and 2.9 percent of its jobs. The Government of Barbados considers agriculture to be one of the nation’s potential growth drivers and supports it through a combination of incentives and concessions to agricultural producers, high border protection, and support to research and infrastructure. Support to producers in Barbados averaged 33.4 percent of gross farm receipts in the latest 3 years of the study (2012-2014), while a significant share of total support (38 percent) was provided in the form of transfers to general services. Total transfers arising from agricultural policy reached 1.1 percent of the national GDP. All types of support decreased during the period of study, but the share of price support in support to producers increased. Reorienting agricultural policy from input subsidies and per-hectare payments towards support to general services would be beneficial for agricultural competitiveness and build a foundation for sustainable growth in agriculture.

The key objectives of the program are to restore macroeconomic and debt sustainability, address falling reserves, and increase growth. The new government, which took office in late May, has committed to fiscal consolidation and structural reform as key tools for macroeconomic adjustment.