The impact of prospect theory on international relations theory

In today’s market, playing it safe is not an option Lead your company to sustainable success by taking the RIGHT RISKS The business world is in flux, and you have to think and act quickly in order to stay competitive. But the last thing you want to do is make reckless business decisions. You have to find the middle ground. You have to take SMART RISKS. In this groundbreaking book, leadership expert Doug Sundheim explains how to find that precise point between comfort and danger for generating the sustained ability to work at the highest level of performance. Taking Smart Risks reveals the secrets to discovering, planning for, and acting upon the kind of risks that will move your company forward and ahead of the competition. Learn how to: Find Something Worth Fighting For—What do you care enough about to risk time, energy, and money to try to make happen? Determining this is half the battle. See the Future Now—Clarify your big idea in terms of real objectives, plans, and intended results. Act Fast, Learn Fast—Make your move quickly, but be sure you don’t squander valuable resources in the process. Communicate Powerfully—Assume communication will break down at points, plan accordingly—and don’t shy away from the tough conversations. Create a Smart Risk Culture— Build teams that share the same mindsets and values about expected smart risk behavior. Applying Sundheim’s advice will help you let go of old assumptions, explore new possibilities, move your organization out of its comfort zone, and experience long-term success. When you take smart risks, you will create. You will innovate. You will grow. And you will WIN. “From Sherwin Williams to Moo.com, Doug Sundheim is onto something here: your work is worth fighting for. A worthy read for everyone in your organization.” —Seth Godin, Author, The Icarus Deception “The risk-taking concepts in this book lie at the heart of effective leadership. Using case studies and stories from executives who have ‘been there, done that,’ Doug Sundheim teaches us that sometimes the most dangerous thing to do—in business and life—is to play it safe.” —Marshall Goldsmith, million-selling author of the New York Times bestsellers MOJO and What Got You Here Won’t Get You There “Sundheim delivers a message that every business needs to hear right now: excessive risk will kill you, but so will complacency. . . . If you’re charged with driving growth in your organization, buy this book—but more importantly, use it.” —Jed Hartman, Group Publisher, Fortune & CNNMoney.com “A spectacular book! The stories were powerful, the advice was crystal clear, and every few pages called me to action. I have bookmarked more pages in Taking Smart Risks than I have in any book since reading Peter Drucker’s classics.” —Michael Hejtmanek, President & CEO, Hasselblad Bron Inc. “Doug Sundheim does an excellent job of demonstrating not only how to take smart risks, but also how to lead the process of risk-taking—a critical skill set for leaders today.” —Cindy Zollinger, President & CEO, Cornerstone Research “A compelling case for why smart risk taking is so important in today’s fast-paced, uncertain world.” —Willie Pietersen, Professor, Columbia Business School; former CEO, Tropicana and Seagram USA

Franklin Roosevelt's intentions during the three years between Munich and Pearl Harbor have been a source of controversy among historians for decades. Barbara Farnham offers both a theory of how the domestic political context affects foreign policy decisions in general and a fresh interpretation of FDR's post-Munich policies based on the insights that the theory provides. Between 1936 and 1938, Roosevelt searched for ways to influence the deteriorating international situation. When Hitler's behavior during the Munich crisis showed him to be incorrigibly aggressive, FDR settled on aiding the democracies, a course to which he adhered until America's entry into the war. This policy attracted him because it allowed him to deal with a serious problem: the conflict between the need to stop Hitler and the domestic imperative to avoid any risk of American involvement in a war. Because existing theoretical approaches to value conflict ignore the influence of political factors on decision-making, they offer little help in explaining Roosevelt's behavior. As an alternative, this book develops a political approach to decision-making which focuses on the impact that awareness of the imperatives of the political context can have on decision-making processes and, through them, policy outcomes. It suggests that in the face of a clash of central values decision-makers who are aware of the demands of the political context are likely to be reluctant to make trade-offs, seeking instead a solution that gives some measure of satisfaction to all the values implicated in the decision.

Great powers often initiate risky military and diplomatic inventions in far-off, peripheral regions that pose no direct threat to them, risking direct confrontation with rivals in strategically inconsequential places. Why do powerful countries behave in a way that leads to entrapment in prolonged, expensive, and self-defeating conflicts? Jeffrey W. Taliaferro suggests that such interventions are driven by the refusal of senior officials to accept losses in their state's relative power, international status, or prestige. Instead of cutting their losses, leaders often continue to invest blood and money in failed excursions into the periphery. Their policies may seem to be driven by rational concerns about power and security, but Taliaferro deems them to be at odds with the master explanation of political realism. Taliaferro constructs a "balance-of-risk" theory of foreign policy that draws on defensive realism (in international relations) and prospect theory (in psychology). He illustrates the power of this new theory in several case narratives: Germany's initiation and escalation of the 1905 and 1911 Moroccan crises, the United States' involvement in the Korean War in 1950–52, and Japan's entanglement in the second Sino-Japanese war in 1937–40 and its decisions for war with the U.S. in 1940–41.

Setbacks and obstacles can get in the way of reaching your goals. But some see those challenges as opportunities, and turn them into stepping stones for great accomplishments.PROJECT BOLD LIFE will show you how they do it!With inspirational stories, insightful research, worksheets that break down the Bold Life Formula, and an illustrated character named "Boldy" to accompany you on your journey, PROJECT BOLD LIFE will give you the tools you need to succeed. It is an essential book for these times!

Embark on an illuminating journey into the intricacies of human cognition with "How to Think Clearly: A Guide to Human Cognitive Biases." This captivating book invites you to explore the hidden forces that shape your thoughts, decisions, and perceptions, and equips you with invaluable tools to navigate the maze of cognitive biases. You will discover how your mind deceives you, often leading to snap judgments driven by emotions rather than reason. Peel back the layers of deception to understand how biases influence your perception of the world around you. Delve into the enigmatic world of decision-making, where cognitive biases can derail your path, and uncover the profound impact of social interactions. But fear not, for "How to Think Clearly" is not just a dissection of human fallibilities. This empowering guide arms you with practical techniques to harness your newfound awareness. With new knowledge, you will develop the ability to recognize and mitigate biases, making wiser decisions and seeing the world with greater clarity. Whether you're a curious explorer of the human mind, a decision-maker seeking to enhance your cognitive abilities, or a student of psychology eager to understand the intricacies of human behavior, this book is an indispensable read. "How to Think Clearly" promises an intellectual odyssey that will forever transform the way you perceive yourself and the world around you. Begin your expedition today. "How to Think Clearly: A Guide to Human Cognitive Biases" eagerly awaits your curiosity and thirst for knowledge. Are you ready to embark on an intellectual adventure that will enrich your life, challenge your perceptions, and pave the way to thinking with greater lucidity?

If six sightless men were asked to describe ‘value’, they’d probably touch it and describe it in parts, without getting a sense of the whole. But to build lasting wealth, you must perceive the entire ‘value elephant’. Great fortunes are made and lost in financial markets. Sanjay Kulkarni’s approach, called V-GRO, enables identification of fundamentally strong businesses which are available at a discount; debunks a number of myths like ‘price is always right’ and ‘earnings are everything’; and creates positive results for investors. But that’s not all. The same fundamentals, Kulkarni argues, can be applied inside a business to create value. He demonstrates how CEOs, professional managers and owners of businesses can ride the ‘value elephant’ to make businesses more valuable, regardless of ownership and industry segment. Invoking the experiences of several business leaders who have created lasting wealth for their investors, The Value Elephant reveals what it takes to successfully create value in the Indian environment.

This revised and updated 3rd edition of Engineering Risk Management presents management principles, risk diagnostics, analysis and treatment methods, followed by examples of practical implementation in chemistry, physics, and nanotechnology. An all-new chapter on dynamic risk assessment makes this a uniquely up-to-date and comprehensive treatise on engineering risk management theory and strategies.

Increase Project Value = Attain the Goal Maximizing project value is about optimizing the tradeoff between project value and business value, two values that are constantly in tension between the project manager and the project sponsor. In this book the author brings his wealth of experience in project management to demonstrate how to increase a project's value and ultimately contribute to the attainment of business goals From exploring the nature of “value,” as tangible resources and moral or ethical attributes, to how best to approach decision-making, the book offers thorough coverage of this essential aspect of project management. The tools and methods the author describes include: • Building the business case • Using a project balance sheet • Employing earned value • Introducing game theory for optimizing strategies This valuable reference should be on the desk of every project sponsor, business stakeholder, project manager, portfolio manager, project practitioner, and functional manager.

Preventing Talent Loss provides a comprehensive model of giftedness and talent for all educators including teachers, counselors, and administrators. By presenting a summary of theory-driven, evidence-based knowledge, Hong and Milgram offer innovative and practical solutions for meeting the challenge of coping with talent loss. This monumental book distinguishes the important difference between expert talent and creative talent. While other books focus on how to improve the process of identifying the gifted and talented, Preventing Talent Loss provides educators with the means to individualize their curriculum and instruction in regular classrooms.