A quarter of the century has elapsed since I gave my first course in structural reliability to graduate students at the University of Waterloo in Canada. Since that time on I have given many courses and seminars to students, researchers, designers, and site engineers interested in reliability. I also participated in and was responsible for numerous projects where reliability solutions were required. During that period, the scope of structural reliability gradually enlarged to become a substantial part of the general reliability theory. First, it is apparent that bearing structures should not be isolated objectives of interest, and, consequently, that constntCted facilities should be studied. Second, a new engineering branch has emerged -reliability engineering. These two facts have highlighted new aspects and asked for new approaches to the theory and applications. I always state in my lectures that the reliability theory is nothing more than mathematized engineering judgment. In fact, thanks mainly to probability and statistics, and also to computers, the empirical knowledge gained by Humankind's construction experience could have been transposed into a pattern of logic thinking, able to produce conclusions and to forecast the behavior of engineering entities. This manner of thinking has developed into an intricate network linked by certain rules, which, in a way, can be considered a type of reliability grammar. We can discern many grammatical concepts in the general structure of the reliability theory.

A quarter of the century has elapsed since I gave my first course in structural reliability to graduate students at the University of Waterloo in Canada. Since that time on I have given many courses and seminars to students, researchers, designers, and site engineers interested in reliability. I also participated in and was responsible for numerous projects where reliability solutions were required. During that period, the scope of structural reliability gradually enlarged to become a substantial part of the general reliability theory. First, it is apparent that bearing structures should not be isolated objectives of interest, and, consequently, that constntCted facilities should be studied. Second, a new engineering branch has emerged -reliability engineering. These two facts have highlighted new aspects and asked for new approaches to the theory and applications. I always state in my lectures that the reliability theory is nothing more than mathematized engineering judgment. In fact, thanks mainly to probability and statistics, and also to computers, the empirical knowledge gained by Humankind's construction experience could have been transposed into a pattern of logic thinking, able to produce conclusions and to forecast the behavior of engineering entities. This manner of thinking has developed into an intricate network linked by certain rules, which, in a way, can be considered a type of reliability grammar. We can discern many grammatical concepts in the general structure of the reliability theory.

This book addresses probabilistic methods for the evaluation of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis of these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature of the uncertainties and their interplay is then gradually developed. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text. The modular approach of the book allows the reader to navigate through the different stages of the methods.

The last decades have witnessed the development of methods for solving struc tural reliability problems, which emerged from the efforts of numerous re searchers all over the world. For the specific and most common problem of determining the probability of failure of a structural system in which the limit state function g( x) = 0 is only implicitly known, the proposed methods can be grouped into two main categories: • Methods based on the Taylor expansion of the performance function g(x) about the most likely failure point (the design point), which is determined in the solution process. These methods are known as FORM and SORM (First- and Second Order Reliability Methods, respectively). • Monte Carlo methods, which require repeated calls of the numerical (nor mally finite element) solver of the structural model using a random real ization of the basic variable set x each time. In the first category of methods only SORM can be considered of a wide applicability. However, it requires the knowledge of the first and second deriva tives of the performance function, whose calculation in several dimensions either implies a high computational effort when faced with finite difference techniques or special programs when using perturbation techniques, which nevertheless require the use of large matrices in their computations. In or der to simplify this task, use has been proposed of techniques that can be regarded as variants of the Response Surface Method.

Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, Third Edition is a textbook which addresses the important issue of predicting the safety of structures at the design stage and also the safety of existing, perhaps deteriorating structures. Attention is focused on the development and definition of limit states such as serviceability and ultimate strength, the definition of failure and the various models which might be used to describe strength and loading. This book emphasises concepts and applications, built up from basic principles and avoids undue mathematical rigour. It presents an accessible and unified account of the theory and techniques for the analysis of the reliability of engineering structures using probability theory. This new edition has been updated to cover new developments and applications and a new chapter is included which covers structural optimization in the context of reliability analysis. New examples and end of chapter problems are also now included.

STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY Discover a new and innovative approach to structural reliability from two authoritative and accomplished authors The subject of structural reliability, which deals with the problems of evaluating the safety and risk posed by a wide variety of structures, has grown rapidly over the last four decades. And while the First-Order Reliability Method is principally used by most textbooks on this subject, other approaches have identified some of the limitations of that method. In Structural Reliability: Approaches from Perspectives of Statistical Moments, accomplished engineers and authors Yan-Gang Zhao and Dr. Zhao-Hui Lu, deliver a concise and insightful exploration of an alternative and innovative approach to structural reliability. Called the Methods of Moment, the authors’ approach is based on the information of statistical moments of basic random variables and the performance function. The Methods of Moment approach facilitates ­structural reliability analysis and reliability-based design and can be extended to other engineering disciplines, yielding further insights into challenging problems involving ­randomness. Readers will also benefit from the inclusion of: A thorough introduction to the measures of structural safety, including uncertainties in structural design, deterministic measures of safety, and probabilistic measures of safety An exploration of the fundamentals of structural reliability theory, including the performance function and failure probability A practical discussion of moment evaluation for performance functions, including moment computation for both explicit and implicit performance functions A concise treatment of direct methods of moment, including the third- and fourth-moment reliability methods Perfect for professors, researchers, and graduate students in civil engineering, Structural Reliability: Approaches from Perspectives of Statistical Moments will also earn a place in the libraries of professionals and students working or studying in mechanical engineering, aerospace and aeronautics engineering, marine and offshore engineering, ship engineering, and applied mechanics.

Structural reliability theory is concerned with the rational treatment of uncertainties in struc tural engineering and with the methods for assessing the safety and serviceability of civil en gineering and other structures. It is a subject which has grown rapidly during the last decade and has evolved from being a topic for academic research to a set of well-developed or develop ing methodologies with a wide range of practical applications. Uncertainties exist in most areas of civil and structural engineeri'1.g and rational design decisions cannot be made without modelling them and taking them into account. Many structural en gineers are shielded from having to think about such problems, at least when designing simple structures, because of the prescriptive and essentially deterministic nature of most codes of practice. This is an undesirable situation. Most loads and other structural design parameters are rarely known with certainty and should be regarded as random variables or stochastic processes, even if in design calculations they are eventually treated as deterministic. Some problems such as the analysis of load combinations cannot even be formulated without recourse to probabilistic reasoning.

Publisher Description

During the last two decades more and more universities offer courses on modern structural reliability theory. A course on structural reliability theory is now a natural part of the curri culum for mechanical and structural engineering students. As a result of this, a number of textbooks have been published in this decade. In PlOst of these books it is shown how the reliability of single structural members can be evaluated in a rational way. The methods used are usually so-called level 2 methods, i. e. methods involving certain approximate iter ative calculations to obtain an approximate value of the probability of failure of the struc tural members. In these methods the joint probability distribution of relevant variables (re sistance variables, loads, etc. ) is simplified and the failure criteria are idealized in such a way that the reliability calculations can be performed without an unreasonable amount of work. In spite of the approximations and idealizations made it is believed that a rational treatment of uncertainties in structural engineering can be obtained by level 2 methods. Usually, in sufficient data are at hand to make a more advanced estimate of the reliability of a struc tural member. It has been recognized for many years that a fully satisfactory estimate of the reliability of a structure must be based on a systems approach. In some situations it is sufficient to estimate the reliability of the individual structural members of a structural system.

Uncertainties about analytical models, fluctuations in loads, and variability of material properties contribute to the small but real probability of structure failures. This advanced engineering text describes methods developed to deal with stochastic aspects of structural behavior, providing a framework for evaluating, comparing, and combining stochastic effects. Starting with the general problem of consistent evaluation of the reliability of structures, the text proceeds to examination of the second-moment reliability index methods that describe failure in terms of one or more limit states. It presents first-order reliability methods for computation of failure probabilities for individual limit states and for systems; and it illustrates identification of the design parameters most affecting reliability. Additional subjects include a self-contained presentation of extreme-value theory and stochastic processes; stationary, evolutionary, and nonlinear aspects of stochastic response of structures; a stochastic approach to material fatigue damage and crack propagation; and stochastic models for several natural and manufactured loads.