In the first chapter, Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrap methods are used to compare the actual and nominal coverage probabilities of prediction intervals constructed using the Prais-Winsten modified weighted symmetric least squares (PW-MWSLS) estimation method. The evidence suggests that the PW-MWSLS estimator, the best point predictor, for the linear trend model with first-order autoregressive errors also leads to prediction intervals with the most accurate coverage rates for the linear trend model with first-order autoregressive errors. The second chapter employs an innovative methodology to construct inflation expectations by incorporating information in the commodity futures market. The empirical results from the vector dynamic system show that the constructed expected rate of inflation series provides the best in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts over the sample period under investigation. Chapter three applies the constructed time series of inflation expectations in the second chapter to examine two broadly debated topics in the field of economics, the Fisher effect and the Phillips curve. The findings provide support for the existence of the short-run Fisher effect; and for the examination of the two main alternative specifications of the Phillips curve, the New Keynesian Phillips curve and the expectations-augmented Phillips curve, the empirical evidence is in favor of the former.

This collection brings together the essays of one of the foremost American philosophers of economics. Cumulatively they offer fresh perspectives on foundational questions such as: what sort of science is economics? and how successful can economists be in acquiring knowledge of their subject matter?

Even a decade after the end of the 1914-1918 war, economic theory assumed that the world was tranquil and orderly. By 1939 an economic slump without parallel, allied to the re-emergence of military ambition in Europe, had brought economic theorists face to face with reality. In this classic book, first published in 1967, Professor Shackle provides a study, in exact and professional language, of the precise nature, structure, presuppositions, language and inter-relations of the theories which were formulated in these fourteen years - unparalleled in the whole history of economics except perhaps by the years of the Physiocrats and Adam Smith. These theories are not prototypes on the way to something better but are of essential and permanent importance.

This book develops a philosophico-methodological analysis of prediction and its role in economics. Prediction plays a key role in economics in various ways. It can be seen as a basic science, as an applied science and in the application of this science. First, it is used by economic theory in order to test the available knowledge. In this regard, prediction has been presented as the scientific test for economics as a science. Second, prediction provides a content regarding the possible future that can be used for prescription in applied economics. Thus, it can be used as a guide for economic policy, i.e., as knowledge concerning the future to be employed for the resolution of specific problems. Third, prediction also has a role in the application of this science in the public arena. This is through the decision-making of the agents — individuals or organizations — in quite different settings, both in the realm of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Within this context, the research is organized in five parts, which discuss relevant aspects of the role of prediction in economics: I) The problem of prediction as a test for a science; II) The general orientation in methodology of science and the problem of prediction as a scientific test; III) The methodological framework of social sciences and economics: Incidence for prediction as a test; IV) Epistemology and methodology of economic prediction: Rationality and empirical approaches and V) Methodological aspects of economic prediction: From description to prescription. Thus, the book is of interest for philosophers and economists as well as policy-makers seeking to ascertain the roots of their performance. The style used lends itself to a wide audience.

Ever since Charles Darwin published The Origin of Species in 1859, genetic evolutionary theory has increasingly served as the foundation for fields that deal with organisms that arose by natural selection. This thesis argues that economic theory should integrate with Darwinian theory through the creation of a "genetic evolutionary economics". The promise of genetic evolutionary economics is a better understanding of human nature and, consequently, a more accurate and comprehensive economic science. Economic theory rests on a set of assumptions about human nature. These economic axioms concern human genes, but there is no explicit connection between genetic evolution and economic theory. As a result, human behavior and economic predictions of that behavior diverge in a variety of important settings. Why, for example, do most people save too little for the future when economics assumes that they will save enough? Chapter 2 discusses the difficulties inherent in the standard economic approach. Natural selection theory, the chapter argues, is the best tool for refining the axioms of economics. Genetic evolutionary economics allows the derivation of parameters that are intractable with standard economic techniques. There is, for instance, an ancient debate within economics about the role of self-interest in human affairs. Chapter 3 builds a genetic evolutionary model relevant to this issue, and concludes that a Darwinian lens removes many of the apparent paradoxes. Genetic evolutionary economics is a scientific endeavor. As such, it produces specific, testable hypotheses concerning behavior in economically relevant situations. Chapter 4 reports on a theoretical and experimental investigation of gift giving. A genetic evolutionary model organizes the existing data on gift giving and makes novel, testable predictions. Laboratory experiments, performed to test the theory, confirm the evolutionary model's predictions.

Paul A. Samuelson was the first American Nobel Laureate in economics, and the second overall. He was credited for "the scientific work through which he has developed static and dynamic economic theory and actively contributed to raising the level of analysis in economic science." That recognition is now thirty years old and Samuelson remains at work in the cutting edge of the discipline. He is also widely known for a basic textbook that became a landmark learning tool throughout the second half of the twentieth century. This excellent collegial appreciation focuses heavily on Samuelson's Foundations of Economic Analysis. In that work, and a series of brief essays, he has contributed to an integration of statics and dynamics by way of the correspondence principle. He has also combined the multiplier and accelerator mechanisms in a model of economic fluctuations; he has reformed the foundations of consumption theory by his concept of revealed preferences; he has developed or improved several major theorems within international trade; and created theories of maximum efficiency and maximum growth rate. Finally, he has clarified the role of collective goods in resource allocation. In considering the work and life of Samuelson, editor Puttaswamaiah, has assembled a worthy group of brilliant commentators. Among the analytic papers in this volume are "An essay on the Accuracy of Economic Prediction" by L.R. Klein, "Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy" by Robert M. Solow, a paper by Vittorangelo Orati on Samuelson's linkage to Schumpeter and Keynes, "Money and Price Theory by Carlo Benetti and Jean Cartelier, and a concluding essay on "The Role of Samuelson's Economics" by Michael Emmett Brady. Most unusual in works of this kind are some strong critical statements, including a pungent examination of vanity as well as creativity in Samuelson's work. What emerges is a clear picture of a special scholar. Scholars and students will welcome it alike-a result that well fits the purpose and character of Samuelson. The festschrift has its origins in several issues of the International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics. Professor K. Puttaswamaiah has more than three decades of editing journals in economics. He is a member of the journal; Savings and Development issued at the University of Milan. He is author of Economic Development of Karnataka, Cost-Benefit Analysis, and Nobel Economists: Lives and Contributions.