Probability and Statistical Inference: From Basic Principles to Advanced Models covers aspects of probability, distribution theory, and inference that are fundamental to a proper understanding of data analysis and statistical modelling. It presents these topics in an accessible manner without sacrificing mathematical rigour, bridging the gap between the many excellent introductory books and the more advanced, graduate-level texts. The book introduces and explores techniques that are relevant to modern practitioners, while being respectful to the history of statistical inference. It seeks to provide a thorough grounding in both the theory and application of statistics, with even the more abstract parts placed in the context of a practical setting. Features: •Complete introduction to mathematical probability, random variables, and distribution theory. •Concise but broad account of statistical modelling, covering topics such as generalised linear models, survival analysis, time series, and random processes. •Extensive discussion of the key concepts in classical statistics (point estimation, interval estimation, hypothesis testing) and the main techniques in likelihood-based inference. •Detailed introduction to Bayesian statistics and associated topics. •Practical illustration of some of the main computational methods used in modern statistical inference (simulation, boostrap, MCMC). This book is for students who have already completed a first course in probability and statistics, and now wish to deepen and broaden their understanding of the subject. It can serve as a foundation for advanced undergraduate or postgraduate courses. Our aim is to challenge and excite the more mathematically able students, while providing explanations of statistical concepts that are more detailed and approachable than those in advanced texts. This book is also useful for data scientists, researchers, and other applied practitioners who want to understand the theory behind the statistical methods used in their fields.

This textbook on statistical modeling and statistical inference will assist advanced undergraduate and graduate students. Statistical Modeling and Computation provides a unique introduction to modern Statistics from both classical and Bayesian perspectives. It also offers an integrated treatment of Mathematical Statistics and modern statistical computation, emphasizing statistical modeling, computational techniques, and applications. Each of the three parts will cover topics essential to university courses. Part I covers the fundamentals of probability theory. In Part II, the authors introduce a wide variety of classical models that include, among others, linear regression and ANOVA models. In Part III, the authors address the statistical analysis and computation of various advanced models, such as generalized linear, state-space and Gaussian models. Particular attention is paid to fast Monte Carlo techniques for Bayesian inference on these models. Throughout the book the authors include a large number of illustrative examples and solved problems. The book also features a section with solutions, an appendix that serves as a MATLAB primer, and a mathematical supplement.​

David A. Freedman presents a definitive synthesis of his approach to statistical modeling and causal inference in the social sciences.

There have been major developments in the field of statistics over the last quarter century, spurred by the rapid advances in computing and data-measurement technologies. These developments have revolutionized the field and have greatly influenced research directions in theory and methodology. Increased computing power has spawned entirely new areas of research in computationally-intensive methods, allowing us to move away from narrowly applicable parametric techniques based on restrictive assumptions to much more flexible and realistic models and methods. These computational advances have also led to the extensive use of simulation and Monte Carlo techniques in statistical inference. All of these developments have, in turn, stimulated new research in theoretical statistics. This volume provides an up-to-date overview of recent advances in statistical modeling and inference. Written by renowned researchers from across the world, it discusses flexible models, semi-parametric methods and transformation models, nonparametric regression and mixture models, survival and reliability analysis, and re-sampling techniques. With its coverage of methodology and theory as well as applications, the book is an essential reference for researchers, graduate students, and practitioners.

Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readers Models for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping. Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses modes of convergence of sequences of random variables, with special attention to convergence in distribution. The second half of the book addresses statistical inference, beginning with a discussion on point estimation and followed by coverage of consistency and confidence intervals. Further areas of exploration include: distributions defined in terms of the multivariate normal, chi-square, t, and F (central and non-central); the one- and two-sample Wilcoxon test, together with methods of estimation based on both; linear models with a linear space-projection approach; and logistic regression. Each section contains a set of problems ranging in difficulty from simple to more complex, and selected answers as well as proofs to almost all statements are provided. An abundant amount of figures in addition to helpful simulations and graphs produced by the statistical package S-Plus(r) are included to help build the intuition of readers.

This lively and engaging book explains the things you have to know in order to read empirical papers in the social and health sciences, as well as the techniques you need to build statistical models of your own. The discussion in the book is organized around published studies, as are many of the exercises. Relevant journal articles are reprinted at the back of the book. Freedman makes a thorough appraisal of the statistical methods in these papers and in a variety of other examples. He illustrates the principles of modelling, and the pitfalls. The discussion shows you how to think about the critical issues - including the connection (or lack of it) between the statistical models and the real phenomena. The book is written for advanced undergraduates and beginning graduate students in statistics, as well as students and professionals in the social and health sciences.

This book is about generalized linear models as described by NeIder and Wedderburn (1972). This approach provides a unified theoretical and computational framework for the most commonly used statistical methods: regression, analysis of variance and covariance, logistic regression, log-linear models for contingency tables and several more specialized techniques. More advanced expositions of the subject are given by McCullagh and NeIder (1983) and Andersen (1980). The emphasis is on the use of statistical models to investigate substantive questions rather than to produce mathematical descriptions of the data. Therefore parameter estimation and hypothesis testing are stressed. I have assumed that the reader is familiar with the most commonly used statistical concepts and methods and has some basic knowledge of calculus and matrix algebra. Short numerical examples are used to illustrate the main points. In writing this book I have been helped greatly by the comments and criticism of my students and colleagues, especially Anne Young. However, the choice of material, and the obscurities and errors are my responsibility and I apologize to the reader for any irritation caused by them. For typing the manuscript under difficult conditions I am grateful to Anne McKim, Jan Garnsey, Cath Claydon and Julie Latimer.

Modelling, Inference and Data Analysis brings together key topics in mathematical statistics and presents them in a rigorous yet accessible manner. It covers aspects of probability, distribution theory and random processes that are fundamental to a proper understanding of inference. The book also discusses the properties of estimators constructed from a random sample of ends, with sections on methods for estimating parameters in time series models and computationally intensive inferential techniques. The text challenges and excites the more mathematically able students while providing an approachable explanation of advanced statistical concepts for students who struggle with existing texts.

This textbook introduces a science philosophy called "information theoretic" based on Kullback-Leibler information theory. It focuses on a science philosophy based on "multiple working hypotheses" and statistical models to represent them. The text is written for people new to the information-theoretic approaches to statistical inference, whether graduate students, post-docs, or professionals. Readers are however expected to have a background in general statistical principles, regression analysis, and some exposure to likelihood methods. This is not an elementary text as it assumes reasonable competence in modeling and parameter estimation.