The second edition of this volume provides insight and practical illustrations on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction problems, including diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. Many advances have been made in statistical approaches towards outcome prediction, but a sensible strategy is needed for model development, validation, and updating, such that prediction models can better support medical practice. There is an increasing need for personalized evidence-based medicine that uses an individualized approach to medical decision-making. In this Big Data era, there is expanded access to large volumes of routinely collected data and an increased number of applications for prediction models, such as targeted early detection of disease and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. Clinical Prediction Models presents a practical checklist that needs to be considered for development of a valid prediction model. Steps include preliminary considerations such as dealing with missing values; coding of predictors; selection of main effects and interactions for a multivariable model; estimation of model parameters with shrinkage methods and incorporation of external data; evaluation of performance and usefulness; internal validation; and presentation formatting. The text also addresses common issues that make prediction models suboptimal, such as small sample sizes, exaggerated claims, and poor generalizability. The text is primarily intended for clinical epidemiologists and biostatisticians. Including many case studies and publicly available R code and data sets, the book is also appropriate as a textbook for a graduate course on predictive modeling in diagnosis and prognosis. While practical in nature, the book also provides a philosophical perspective on data analysis in medicine that goes beyond predictive modeling. Updates to this new and expanded edition include: • A discussion of Big Data and its implications for the design of prediction models • Machine learning issues • More simulations with missing ‘y’ values • Extended discussion on between-cohort heterogeneity • Description of ShinyApp • Updated LASSO illustration • New case studies

The second edition of this innovative work again provides a unique perspective on the clinical discovery process by providing input from experts within the NIH on the principles and practice of clinical research. Molecular medicine, genomics, and proteomics have opened vast opportunities for translation of basic science observations to the bedside through clinical research. As an introductory reference it gives clinical investigators in all fields an awareness of the tools required to ensure research protocols are well designed and comply with the rigorous regulatory requirements necessary to maximize the safety of research subjects. Complete with sections on the history of clinical research and ethics, copious figures and charts, and sample documents it serves as an excellent companion text for any course on clinical research and as a must-have reference for seasoned researchers.*Incorporates new chapters on Managing Conflicts of Interest in Human Subjects Research, Clinical Research from the Patient's Perspective, The Clinical Researcher and the Media, Data Management in Clinical Research, Evaluation of a Protocol Budget, Clinical Research from the Industry Perspective, and Genetics in Clinical Research *Addresses the vast opportunities for translation of basic science observations to the bedside through clinical research*Delves into data management and addresses how to collect data and use it for discovery*Contains valuable, up-to-date information on how to obtain funding from the federal government