The 2017 Near East and North Africa (NENA) edition of the Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition comes under the theme of “building resilience for food security and nutrition in times of conflict and crisis”. The report establishes a baseline against which to measure future progress towards achieving SDG 2 on ending hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition in NENA by monitoring the latest indicators for the SDG targets on hunger and food insecurity (SDG Target 2.1) and malnutrition (SDG Target 2.2). Beyond numbers, the report focuses on the fundamental factors that have driven improvements in food security and malnutrition: poverty reduction, economic growth, improvements in maternal and childhood nutrition and public health, increases in the quantity and quality of the food supply and cessation of violence. Moreover, the report brings into sharp focus the issue of conflict, which is the major driver of food insecurity in the NENA region. Food security in the NENA region is fast deteriorating, driven by conflict and leading to a widening gap in well-being between conflict and non-conflict countries. Conflicts have long-lasting impacts on the food security and nutrition of both affected and surrounding countries in the region. Not only is food security deteriorating in the conflict and spill over countries, but the high costs of perpetrating, containing, preventing and dealing with the consequences of violence undermine their ability to mitigate the decline in living standards.

New evidence this year corroborates the rise in world hunger observed in this report last year, sending a warning that more action is needed if we aspire to end world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. Updated estimates show the number of people who suffer from hunger has been growing over the past three years, returning to prevailing levels from almost a decade ago. Although progress continues to be made in reducing child stunting, over 22 percent of children under five years of age are still affected. Other forms of malnutrition are also growing: adult obesity continues to increase in countries irrespective of their income levels, and many countries are coping with multiple forms of malnutrition at the same time – overweight and obesity, as well as anaemia in women, and child stunting and wasting.

The Near East and North Africa Regional Overview of Food Security and Nutrition provides new evidence for monitoring trends in food security and nutrition within the framework of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. The in-depth analysis of progress made against Sustainable Development Goal 2 Target 2.1 (to end hunger and ensure access to food by all) and Target 2.2 (to end all forms of malnutrition), as well as the state of micronutrient deficiencies, is complemented by a review on rural transformation policies aimed at addressing food insecurity and nutrition issues. Updated estimates shows that the food security situation on the region continues to worsen since 2011 -2013. For, the Near East and North Africa, 11% of the region’s population – 50.2 million people – are undernourished. The findings of the report showed that the failure to reduce hunger in the area is closely associated with the increase in conflict and violence in several parts of the region, as also highlighted in last year’s edition. While the prevalence of undernourishment has risen from 23 to 26 percent in conflict countries since 2011-13, it has remained stable at about 5 percent in non-conflict countries. This year’s report goes further to explore the relationship between food insecurity, economic growth and rural transformation. It demonstrates that economic growth in the Near East and North Africa region has been slow compared to other regions, and suggests that rural transformation can improve growth rates and generate decent employment through strengthening rural-urban linkages, improving agricultural productivity, and expanding the rural non-farm economy.

This report examines data available prior to the Covid-19 pandemic that affected the region and the world in 2020. By 2019, the Arab Region was already off track to achieve hunger and nutrition-related SDG targets by 2030. In fact, after good progress during past decades, since 2015-17 the number of undernourished people in the region has been increasing steadily. In 2019, the number of hungry people stood at 51.4 million, or 12.2 percent of the region’s population. If such trends continue, even ignoring the potential impact of Covid-19, the number of undernourished in the region will exceed 75 million people by 2030.

The Overview presents the food security and nutrition situation in the Arab States for 2022 when the effects of the war in Ukraine and record-high food and fertilizer prices hit the region that was just recovering from the economic and social shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, hunger in the Arab States has reached its highest level since 2000. The Arab region continued to suffer from the triple burden of malnutrition: besides undernutrition, child overweight/adult obesity and micronutrient deficiencies, such as anaemia. The prevalences of overweight among children and of anaemia among women are higher than the world average. The downward trend of child stunting has slowed down, and recent high food prices might even reverse it. Furthermore, the cost of a healthy diet in the region has been increasing in recent years, and healthy diets are out of reach for almost every other person in the Arab States. The region’s deteriorating food security and nutrition situation calls for the urgent need to transform agrifood systems, making them more resilient to shocks and emerging crises, more efficient, inclusive and sustainable to reach the Sustainable Development Goal 2 targets.

This year’s report presents evidence that Arab States face significant challenges in achieving Sustainable Development Goal 2 targets related to hunger, food security, and nutrition, as undernourishment, moderate or severe food insecurity, and malnourishment are increasing. Child wasting and overweight are higher, and adult obesity is double the global average. LDCs and conflict-affected countries suffer from even more severe hunger and malnutrition, including child stunting, wasting, and women’s anaemia. The report also provides the first assessment of the cost and affordability of a healthy diet since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which shows a growing trend in the price of nutritious diets in recent years and that more than half the Arab population cannot afford a healthy diet. The Ukraine crisis, which has triggered food shortages and increased food price inflation, further adds to the burden on the region. This year, the report focuses on how trade can enable regional food security and nutrition. Arab countries rely significantly on imports for the essential food items necessary for diverse and healthy diets that they cannot locally produce in sufficient quantities due to limited natural resource endowments. It discusses the role of trade and trade facilitation as essential enablers of all four dimensions of food security and nutrition. It also underlines how tariffs and non-tariff measures influence the economic access to food in the area. On the other hand, countries that depend on trade may become more exposed to outside shocks, as the pandemic and the Ukraine crisis have highlighted. The report assesses Arab countries’ vulnerabilities, such as import dependency and lack of supplier diversification. To reduce the exposure to such external shocks, international trade must be carefully managed, sources of imports should be diversified, and international trade relations must be expanded to include new partners and markets. The report concludes with further policy recommendations that aim for the better integration of trade into food security and nutrition policies in the region.

The past few decades have seen dramatic improvements in the region in access to food, reduction in stunting rates, in premature death and disability caused by communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases. However, the gains in the fight against hunger and malnutrition have reversed in the wake of conflicts and violence that have spread in many parts of the region in the last decade. Today, nearly 55 million people in the Arab States, 13.2 percent of the population, are hungry and the situation is particularly worrying in countries affected by conflicts and violence: Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Sudan, and Yemen. Displacements and forced migration are widespread in the region, especially among the growing youth population segment. Many countries carry a double burden of malnutrition, including overweight and obesity and undernutrition. A high or very high prevalence of stunting in children under the age of five persists in nearly half of the Arab States, while anaemia is a severe public health issue in certain countries. The trends of overweight and obesity continue to worsen for children and adults. Beyond these numbers, the report explores food systems in the Arab States and the policies that support them. It also explores how the latter have contributed to poor nutritional outcomes by failing to make safe and diversified healthy diets available to all. While there has been significant progress in policies designed to reduce caloric deficiencies in the population, the policy reaction to address existing malnutrition problems, particularly in relation to overweight and obesity,

Updates for many countries have made it possible to estimate hunger in the world with greater accuracy this year. In particular, newly accessible data enabled the revision of the entire series of undernourishment estimates for China back to 2000, resulting in a substantial downward shift of the series of the number of undernourished in the world. Nevertheless, the revision confirms the trend reported in past editions: the number of people affected by hunger globally has been slowly on the rise since 2014. The report also shows that the burden of malnutrition in all its forms continues to be a challenge. There has been some progress for child stunting, low birthweight and exclusive breastfeeding, but at a pace that is still too slow. Childhood overweight is not improving and adult obesity is on the rise in all regions. The report complements the usual assessment of food security and nutrition with projections of what the world may look like in 2030, if trends of the last decade continue. Projections show that the world is not on track to achieve Zero Hunger by 2030 and, despite some progress, most indicators are also not on track to meet global nutrition targets. The food security and nutritional status of the most vulnerable population groups is likely to deteriorate further due to the health and socio economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report puts a spotlight on diet quality as a critical link between food security and nutrition. Meeting SDG 2 targets will only be possible if people have enough food to eat and if what they are eating is nutritious and affordable. The report also introduces new analysis of the cost and affordability of healthy diets around the world, by region and in different development contexts. It presents valuations of the health and climate-change costs associated with current food consumption patterns, as well as the potential cost savings if food consumption patterns were to shift towards healthy diets that include sustainability considerations. The report then concludes with a discussion of the policies and strategies to transform food systems to ensure affordable healthy diets, as part of the required efforts to end both hunger and all forms of malnutrition.

Africa is not on track to meeting the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 targets to end hunger and ensure access by all people to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round and to end all forms of malnutrition. The number of hungry people on the continent has risen by 47.9 million since 2014 and now stands at 250.3 million, or nearly one-fifth of the population. The 2017, 2018 and 2019 editions of this report explain that this gradual deterioration of food security was due to conflict, weather extremes, and economic slowdowns and downturns, often overlapping. A continued worsening of food security is expected also for 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to hunger, across all countries in Africa millions of people suffer from widespread micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity are emerging as significant health concerns in many countries. This report shows that the food system in Africa does not provide food at a cost that makes nutritious food affordable to a majority of the population, and this is reflected in the high disease burden associated with maternal and child malnutrition, high body-mass, micronutrient deficiencies and dietary risk factors. The report also shows that current food consumption patterns impose high health and environmental costs, which are not reflected in food prices. The findings presented in this report highlight the importance of prioritizing the transformation of food systems to ensure access to affordable and healthy diets for all, produced in a sustainable manner.

This publication was prepared as a background paper for the Land and Water Days event, held in Cairo, Egypt, from 31 March to 4 April 2019. In the framework of the event, the paper introduced the thematic area on "Land and Water Governance to achieve the SDGs in fragile systems", whose plenary session was held on Wednesday, 3 April 2019. Taking into consideration the fragility of the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region, the paper intends to demonstrate how land and water governance can help to reduce such condition, improve resilience and even assist in conflict resolution in the NENA region.