Despite concerns linked to short-term and cyclical risks, including unequal development, policy uncertainty, declining oil prices and localised unrest, the longer-term growth fundamentals are clear. Following the presidential elections in March 2015, the newly elected government of President Muhammadu Buhari will face a host of challenges, ranging from high levels of rural poverty to concerns over governance and an insurgency in the north. The outcome of the presidential elections gave Nigeria its first peaceful handover of power in more than 16 years, as well as a boost of momentum that, along with its economic fundamentals, places it on the cusp of potentially long-term, broad-based growth.

Omolade Adunbi investigates the myths behind competing claims to oil wealth in Nigeria's Niger Delta. Looking at ownership of natural resources, oil extraction practices, government control over oil resources, and discourse about oil, Adunbi shows how symbolic claims have created an "oil citizenship." He explores the ways NGOs, militant groups, and community organizers invoke an ancestral promise to defend land disputes, justify disruptive actions, or organize against oil corporations. Policies to control the abundant resources have increased contestations over wealth, transformed the relationship of people to their environment, and produced unique forms of power, governance, and belonging.

Concise account of a growing Islamist threat, which is active across West Africa

Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa with a GDP of $ 487bn in 2015, according to the World Bank. The country asserted the mantle of the continent's largest economy in 2013, following a rebasing exercise. However, its large population means that Nigeria remains a comparatively poor country in per capita terms, with a lower GDP per capita than several of its sub-Saharan neighbors. Following a real GDP contract of 1.5% in 2016, the IMF forecasts that growth will reach 0.8% in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018. While growth began to pick up in the first half of 2017, Nigeria still has much work to do. However, there is the sentiment that the economy has turned a corner and has begun to see a silver lining. Devaluation of the naira, rising inflation, the drop in oil revenues, the slowdown in oil production, and the leader softening of growth,

This book examines the politics and economics of infrastructure development in Nigeria from Independence in 1960 up to 2015, and the role of good governance in promoting the socioeconomic wellbeing of citizens. Arguing for the need for transformational leadership in infrastructure development, the chapters examine policy issues and survey the various administrative, economic, and social-political reforms that have impacted infrastructure development in Nigeria. The author also discusses current national development plans and Vision 20:2020; challenges to infrastructure development, including corruption; and the future potential of a strong infrastructure network for the economy and citizens. Drawing upon his experience within government departments, as well as existing models of leadership and governance, the author explores the role of infrastructure development in promoting the wellbeing and growth of Nigeria. Combining theory with practical examples of good governance, this book will be of interest for students and researchers of political science and infrastructure development in Africa.

Nigeria, the United States’ most important strategic partner in West Africa, is in grave trouble. While Nigerians often claim they are masters of dancing on the brink without falling off, the disastrous administration of President Goodluck Jonathan, the radical Islamic insurrection Boko Haram, and escalating violence in the delta and the north may finally provide the impetus that pushes it into the abyss of state failure. In this thoroughly updated edition, John Campbellexplores Nigeria’s post-colonial history and presents a nuanced explanation of the events and conditions that have carried this complex, dynamic, and very troubled giant to the edge. Central to his analysis are the oil wealth, endemic corruption, and elite competition that have undermined Nigeria’s nascent democratic institutions and alienated an increasingly impoverished population. However, state failure is not inevitable, nor is it in the interest of the United States. Campbell provides concrete new policy options that would not only allow the United States to help Nigeria avoid state failure but also to play a positive role in Nigeria’s political, social, and economic development.

This Selected Issues paper analyzes mobilization of tax revenues in Nigeria. Low non-oil revenue mobilization is affecting the government’s objectives to expand growth-enhancing expenditure priorities, foster higher growth, and comply with its fiscal rule which limits the federal government deficit to no more than 3 percent of GDP. There is significant revenue potential from structural tax measures. A broad-based and comprehensive tax reform program is needed in the short and medium term to address these objectives and generate sustainable revenue growth by broadening the bases of income and consumption taxes, closing loopholes and leakage created by corporate tax holidays and the widespread use of other associated tax expenditures, as well as creating incentives for the subnational tiers of government to raise their own source revenues.

In 2015, Nigeria's voters cast out the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP). Here, A. Carl LeVan traces the political vulnerability of Africa's largest party in the face of elite bargains that facilitated a democratic transition in 1999. These 'pacts' enabled electoral competition but ultimately undermined the party's coherence. LeVan also crucially examines the four critical barriers to Nigeria's democratic consolidation: the terrorism of Boko Haram in the northeast, threats of Igbo secession in the southeast, lingering ethnic resentments and rebellions in the Niger Delta, and farmer-pastoralist conflicts. While the PDP unsuccessfully stoked fears about the opposition's ability to stop Boko Haram's terrorism, the opposition built a winning electoral coalition on economic growth, anti-corruption, and electoral integrity. Drawing on extensive interviews with a number of politicians and generals and civilians and voters, he argues that electoral accountability is essential but insufficient for resolving the representational, distributional, and cultural components of these challenges.

" This monograph describes how a failed state in 2030 may impact the United States and the global economy. It also identifies critical capabilities and technologies the US Air Force should have to respond to a failed state, especially one of vital interest to the United States and one on the cusp of a civil war. Nation-states can fail for a myriad of reasons: cultural or religious conflict, a broken social contract between the government and the governed, a catastrophic natural disaster, financial collapse, war and so forth. Nigeria with its vast oil wealth, large population, and strategic position in Africa and the global economy can, if it fails disproportionately affect the United States and the global economy. Nigeria, like many nations in Africa, gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1960. It is the most populous country in Africa and will have nearly 250 million people by 2030. In its relatively short modern history, Nigeria has survived five military coups as well as separatist and religious wars, is mired in an active armed insurgency, is suffering from disastrous ecological conditions in its Niger Delta region, and is fighting one of the modern world's worst legacies of political and economic corruption. A nation with more than 350 ethnic groups, 250 languages, and three distinct religious affiliations--Christian, Islamic, and animist Nigeria's 135 million people today are anything but homogenous. Of Nigeria's 36 states, 12 are Islamic and under the strong and growing influence of the Sokoto caliphate. While religious and ethnic violence are commonplace, the federal government has managed to strike a tenuous balance among the disparate religious and ethnic factions. With such demographics, Nigeria's failure would be akin to a piece of fine china dropped on a tile floor--it would simply shatter into potentially hundreds of pieces."--DTIC abstract.