A single streetcar line runs around the sleepy suburban square of an unnamed city. One day—out of nowhere—a group of hapless refugees pour from the streetcar and set up camp in the square. The residents grow hostile to the disruption and chaos, and eventually take matters into their own hands... Flaw is Tulli’s most intense and personally motivated work to date, while still retaining the signature mind-and word-play so admired by critics and her growing readership.

A SONG OF FRIENDSHIP Friendship is the strongest tie Outside of kinship, no one can deny. The specialness of kinship lies in a bond That cannot be severed, and no one can buy. Friendship embraces spousal connection Tightening its bands on waning affection. The specialness of friendship lies in a bond Of caring, sharing, loving - it’s all emotional. When two friends get together, they Command a circle and perform miracles Reflecting intimacy, camaraderie. We’re all on a journey, loving and bonding, And together, circling this miracle merrily.

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

When we look at the world around us, one of the most common observations is that things have a tendency to go wrong. People make mistakes, have accidents and some of them commit deliberate acts of violence. Disease affects every single species of plant and animal on the planet. Natural disasters kill millions of people and decimate animal populations. Countless people and animals suffer through no fault of their own. Scientists explain these events in various ways depending upon whether they involve errors in human choices and actions or whether they are caused by natural events. Theologians give us a different set of religious explanations. At times it can appear as if there is a fundamental flaw in the universe. In this book, Adrian Hough uses his training and expertise as both a scientist and a theologian to approach this flaw from both directions and comes up with the astonishing result that both sets of reasoning might have the same fundamental explanation.

"One of my favourite books this year." - The Review Curmudgeon"An absolute gem of a read!" - Bear Mountain BooksBook 2, The Emperor's Mask, is available now!In a city that runs on magic, it takes a man with none to solve an impossible murder.In a world of elves and dwarves and sprites and mages, Tane Carver is a human with no gift but his wits. Which, to be fair, did get him into the world's most prestigious university of magical technology.For a while.Until his lack of magic was discovered. And then it all came crashing down.But when a student is murdered on campus behind unbreakable wards, Tane gets a second chance. Solving an impossible crime should be easy for the man who fooled the university's best mages for years. Except he's not counting on the head constable being an old flame who isn't so fond of him anymore. Or on Kadka, the half-crazy half-orc who insists she's his partner--whether he likes it or not.Not to mention the masked mage who keeps trying to kill him.Now, Tane's survival depends on the one truth that has never failed him. The flaw in all magic that those who have it prefer to ignore: the mage.Outsmart the mage, and you outsmart the spell.And outsmarting mages is what Tane does best.

What a woman wants… Ultimate Italian playboy Count Roman Quisvada has more notches on his bedpost than…well, bedpost! So when no-nonsense Eva Skavanga arrives on his Mediterranean island with a business arrangement, Roman's much more interested in the pleasure her smart mouth can bring him. He's not the sort of man a tender virgin would seek out for her first time, but tomboy Eva is starting to enjoy his attention—it makes her feel like a real woman. Perhaps Roman could help her with more than just securing her family's diamond mine…? But only if she can keep her heart off the table!

From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.