This book focuses on how the BOXES Methodology, which is based on the work of Donald Michie, is applied to ill-defined real-time control systems with minimal a priori knowledge of the system. The method is applied to a variety of systems including the familiar pole and cart. This second edition includes a new section that covers some further observations and thoughts, problems, and evolutionary extensions that the reader will find useful in their own implementation of the method. This second edition includes a new section on how to handle jittering about a system boundary which in turn causes replicated run times to become part of the learning mechanism. It also addresses the aging of data values using a forgetfulness factor that causes wrong values of merit to be calculated. Another question that is addressed is “Should a BOXES cell ever be considered fully trained and, if so, excluded from further dynamic updates”. Finally, it expands on how system boundaries may be shifted using data from many runs using an evolutionary paradigm.

Praise for the Second Edition: "This book [is for] anyone who would like a good, solid understanding of response surface methodology. The book is easy to read, easy to understand, and very applicable. The examples are excellent and facilitate learning of the concepts and methods." —Journal of Quality Technology Complete with updates that capture the important advances in the field of experimental design, Response Surface Methodology, Third Edition successfully provides a basic foundation for understanding and implementing response surface methodology (RSM) in modern applications. The book continues to outline the essential statistical experimental design fundamentals, regression modeling techniques, and elementary optimization methods that are needed to fit a response surface model from experimental data. With its wealth of new examples and use of the most up-to-date software packages, this book serves as a complete and modern introduction to RSM and its uses across scientific and industrial research. This new edition maintains its accessible approach to RSM, with coverage of classical and modern response surface designs. Numerous new developments in RSM are also treated in full, including optimal designs for RSM, robust design, methods for design evaluation, and experiments with restrictions on randomization as well as the expanded integration of these concepts into computer software. Additional features of the Third Edition include: Inclusion of split-plot designs in discussion of two-level factorial designs, two-level fractional factorial designs, steepest ascent, and second-order models A new section on the Hoke design for second-order response surfaces New material on experiments with computer models Updated optimization techniques useful in RSM, including multiple responses Thorough treatment of presented examples and experiments using JMP 7, Design-Expert Version 7, and SAS software packages Revised and new exercises at the end of each chapter An extensive references section, directing the reader to the most current RSM research Assuming only a fundamental background in statistical models and matrix algebra, Response Surface Methodology, Third Edition is an ideal book for statistics, engineering, and physical sciences courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for applied statisticians and practicing engineers.

Robust control mechanisms customarily require knowledge of the system’s describing equations which may be of the high order differential type. In order to produce these equations, mathematical models can often be derived and correlated with measured dynamic behavior. There are two flaws in this approach one is the level of inexactness introduced by linearizations and the other when no model is apparent. Several years ago a new genre of control systems came to light that are much less dependent on differential models such as fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. Both of these soft computing solutions require quite considerable a priori system knowledge to create a control scheme and sometimes complicated training program before they can be implemented in a real world dynamic system. Michie and Chambers’ BOXES methodology created a black box system that was designed to control a mechanically unstable system with very little a priori system knowledge, linearization or approximation. All the method needed was some notion of maximum and minimum values for the state variables and a set of boundaries that divided each variable into an integer state number. The BOXES Methodology applies the method to a variety of systems including continuous and chaotic dynamic systems, and discusses how it may be possible to create a generic control method that is self organizing and adaptive that learns with the assistance of near neighbouring states. The BOXES Methodology introduces students at the undergraduate and master’s level to black box dynamic system control , and gives lecturers access to background materials that can be used in their courses in support of student research and classroom presentations in novel control systems and real-time applications of artificial intelligence. Designers are provided with a novel method of optimization and controller design when the equations of a system are difficult or unknown. Researchers interested in artificial intelligence (AI) research and models of the brain and practitioners from other areas of biology and technology are given an insight into how AI software can be written and adapted to operate in real-time.

Providing more than twice the content of the original edition, this new edition is the premier source on the selection, development, and provision of safe, high-quality, and cost-effective electric utility distribution systems, and it promises vast improvements in system reliability and layout by spanning every aspect of system planning including load forecasting, scheduling, performance, and economics. Responding to the evolving needs of electric utilities, Power Distribution Planning Reference Book presents an abundance of real-world examples, procedural and managerial issues, and engineering and analytical methodologies that are crucial to efficient and enhanced system performance.

A comprehensive overview of Monte Carlo simulation that explores the latest topics, techniques, and real-world applications More and more of today’s numerical problems found in engineering and finance are solved through Monte Carlo methods. The heightened popularity of these methods and their continuing development makes it important for researchers to have a comprehensive understanding of the Monte Carlo approach. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods provides the theory, algorithms, and applications that helps provide a thorough understanding of the emerging dynamics of this rapidly-growing field. The authors begin with a discussion of fundamentals such as how to generate random numbers on a computer. Subsequent chapters discuss key Monte Carlo topics and methods, including: Random variable and stochastic process generation Markov chain Monte Carlo, featuring key algorithms such as the Metropolis-Hastings method, the Gibbs sampler, and hit-and-run Discrete-event simulation Techniques for the statistical analysis of simulation data including the delta method, steady-state estimation, and kernel density estimation Variance reduction, including importance sampling, latin hypercube sampling, and conditional Monte Carlo Estimation of derivatives and sensitivity analysis Advanced topics including cross-entropy, rare events, kernel density estimation, quasi Monte Carlo, particle systems, and randomized optimization The presented theoretical concepts are illustrated with worked examples that use MATLAB®, a related Web site houses the MATLAB® code, allowing readers to work hands-on with the material and also features the author's own lecture notes on Monte Carlo methods. Detailed appendices provide background material on probability theory, stochastic processes, and mathematical statistics as well as the key optimization concepts and techniques that are relevant to Monte Carlo simulation. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods is an excellent reference for applied statisticians and practitioners working in the fields of engineering and finance who use or would like to learn how to use Monte Carlo in their research. It is also a suitable supplement for courses on Monte Carlo methods and computational statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

This book focuses on how the BOXES Methodology, which is based on the work of Donald Michie, is applied to ill-defined real-time control systems with minimal a priori knowledge of the system. The method is applied to a variety of systems including the familiar pole and cart. This second edition includes a new section that covers some further observations and thoughts, problems, and evolutionary extensions that the reader will find useful in their own implementation of the method. This second edition includes a new section on how to handle jittering about a system boundary which in turn causes replicated run times to become part of the learning mechanism. It also addresses the aging of data values using a forgetfulness factor that causes wrong values of merit to be calculated. Another question that is addressed is "Should a BOXES cell ever be considered fully trained and, if so, excluded from further dynamic updates". Finally, it expands on how system boundaries may be shifted using data from many runs using an evolutionary paradigm.

Praise for the First Edition " . . . the book is a valuable addition to the literature in the field, serving as a much-needed guide for both clinicians and advanced students."—Zentralblatt MATH A new edition of the cutting-edge guide to diagnostic tests in medical research In recent years, a considerable amount of research has focused on evolving methods for designing and analyzing diagnostic accuracy studies. Statistical Methods in Diagnostic Medicine, Second Edition continues to provide a comprehensive approach to the topic, guiding readers through the necessary practices for understanding these studies and generalizing the results to patient populations. Following a basic introduction to measuring test accuracy and study design, the authors successfully define various measures of diagnostic accuracy, describe strategies for designing diagnostic accuracy studies, and present key statistical methods for estimating and comparing test accuracy. Topics new to the Second Edition include: Methods for tests designed to detect and locate lesions Recommendations for covariate-adjustment Methods for estimating and comparing predictive values and sample size calculations Correcting techniques for verification and imperfect standard biases Sample size calculation for multiple reader studies when pilot data are available Updated meta-analysis methods, now incorporating random effects Three case studies thoroughly showcase some of the questions and statistical issues that arise in diagnostic medicine, with all associated data provided in detailed appendices. A related web site features Fortran, SAS®, and R software packages so that readers can conduct their own analyses. Statistical Methods in Diagnostic Medicine, Second Edition is an excellent supplement for biostatistics courses at the graduate level. It also serves as a valuable reference for clinicians and researchers working in the fields of medicine, epidemiology, and biostatistics.

Praise for the First Edition ". . . an excellent textbook . . . an indispensable reference for biostatisticians and epidemiologists." —International Statistical Institute A new edition of the definitive guide to classical and modern methods of biostatistics Biostatistics consists of various quantitative techniques that are essential to the description and evaluation of relationships among biologic and medical phenomena. Biostatistical Methods: The Assessment of Relative Risks, Second Edition develops basic concepts and derives an expanded array of biostatistical methods through the application of both classical statistical tools and more modern likelihood-based theories. With its fluid and balanced presentation, the book guides readers through the important statistical methods for the assessment of absolute and relative risks in epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with categorical, count, and event-time data. Presenting a broad scope of coverage and the latest research on the topic, the author begins with categorical data analysis methods for cross-sectional, prospective, and retrospective studies of binary, polychotomous, and ordinal data. Subsequent chapters present modern model-based approaches that include unconditional and conditional logistic regression; Poisson and negative binomial models for count data; and the analysis of event-time data including the Cox proportional hazards model and its generalizations. The book now includes an introduction to mixed models with fixed and random effects as well as expanded methods for evaluation of sample size and power. Additional new topics featured in this Second Edition include: Establishing equivalence and non-inferiority Methods for the analysis of polychotomous and ordinal data, including matched data and the Kappa agreement index Multinomial logistic for polychotomous data and proportional odds models for ordinal data Negative binomial models for count data as an alternative to the Poisson model GEE models for the analysis of longitudinal repeated measures and multivariate observations Throughout the book, SAS is utilized to illustrate applications to numerous real-world examples and case studies. A related website features all the data used in examples and problem sets along with the author's SAS routines. Biostatistical Methods, Second Edition is an excellent book for biostatistics courses at the graduate level. It is also an invaluable reference for biostatisticians, applied statisticians, and epidemiologists.

A practical and accessible introduction to the bootstrap method——newly revised and updated Over the past decade, the application of bootstrap methods to new areas of study has expanded, resulting in theoretical and applied advances across various fields. Bootstrap Methods, Second Edition is a highly approachable guide to the multidisciplinary, real-world uses of bootstrapping and is ideal for readers who have a professional interest in its methods, but are without an advanced background in mathematics. Updated to reflect current techniques and the most up-to-date work on the topic, the Second Edition features: The addition of a second, extended bibliography devoted solely to publications from 1999–2007, which is a valuable collection of references on the latest research in the field A discussion of the new areas of applicability for bootstrap methods, including use in the pharmaceutical industry for estimating individual and population bioequivalence in clinical trials A revised chapter on when and why bootstrap fails and remedies for overcoming these drawbacks Added coverage on regression, censored data applications, P-value adjustment, ratio estimators, and missing data New examples and illustrations as well as extensive historical notes at the end of each chapter With a strong focus on application, detailed explanations of methodology, and complete coverage of modern developments in the field, Bootstrap Methods, Second Edition is an indispensable reference for applied statisticians, engineers, scientists, clinicians, and other practitioners who regularly use statistical methods in research. It is also suitable as a supplementary text for courses in statistics and resampling methods at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

With numerous real-world examples, Modelling and Quantitative Methods in Fisheries, Second Edition provides an introduction to the analytical methods used by fisheries’ scientists and ecologists. By following the examples using Excel, readers see the nuts and bolts of how the methods work and better understand the underlying principles. Excel workbooks are available for download from CRC Press website. In this second edition, the author has revised all chapters and improved a number of the examples. This edition also includes two entirely new chapters: Characterization of Uncertainty covers asymptotic errors and likelihood profiles and develops a generalized Gibbs sampler to run a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis that can be used to generate Bayesian posteriors Sized-Based Models implements a fully functional size-based stock assessment model using abalone as an example This book continues to cover a broad range of topics related to quantitative methods and modelling. It offers a solid foundation in the skills required for the quantitative study of marine populations. Explaining important and relatively complex ideas and methods in a clear manner, the author presents full, step-by-step derivations of equations as much as possible to enable a thorough understanding of the models and methods.