COVID-19 severely hit the economy, causing a loss of tourism receipts and necessitating several strict lockdowns. Pre-pandemic tax cuts and the impact of COVID-19 led to fiscal deficits larger than 10 percent of GDP in 2020 and 2021 and a rapid increase in public debt to 119 percent of GDP in 2021. Sri Lanka’s access to international capital markets was lost in 2020, prompting a decline of international reserves to critically low levels and large-scale direct lending to the government by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). External debt repayments and a widening current account deficit have led to foreign exchange (FX) shortages, while the official exchange rate has been de facto fixed since April 2021. Inflation is on the rise, reaching double digits in December 2021, reflecting imported inflation, supply shocks, and a pickup in domestic demand amid loose monetary policy.

A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.

Border closures and other pandemic containment measures have kept Vanuatu free from COVID-19. However, they have dealt a heavy blow to economic activity as tourism has come to a virtual halt. On top of the pandemic, Tropical Cyclone Harold and a volcanic eruption in Tanna Island caused extensive economic damage in 2020. In the context of a continued loss of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) in the Pacific, Vanuatu also lost a key CBR at end-June 2021. Air Vanuatu, one of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs), is in the process of being restructured.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has created a prolonged health crisis. Economic activity was slowing prior to the pandemic. Two COVID-19 waves have resulted in a deep and broad-based economic downturn with the potential for a longer lasting impact. The authorities have responded with fiscal policy, including scaled-up support to vulnerable groups, monetary policy easing and liquidity provision, and accommodative financial sector and regulatory policies. Despite the pandemic, the authorities have continued to implement structural reforms.

Brunei’s economic performance—which was strong before the COVID-19 pandemic—has been buffeted by the health crisis and a pandemic-induced oil and gas price shock. The authorities responded fast and decisively. The number of new infections was quickly suppressed, thanks to a swift public health response, effective health measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Strong fiscal and regulatory policy responses helped sustain production and household income and consumption. Past diversification efforts and reforms bore fruit when it was most needed. As a result, the economy performed strongly in 2020, with real GDP posting positive growth of 1.1 percent—a rare outcome amidst negative growth in the region. Economic activity is projected to strengthen in 2021-22, albeit at varying speeds across sectors, and to continue improving over the medium term on the back of further diversification. The outlook is, however, subject to unusual uncertainty, with significant risks skewed to the downside. Sustained strong policy actions are needed to ensure continued resilience, while nurturing green, digital and inclusive growth.

Malaysia’s economy is showing signs of a gradual yet steady recovery thanks to the authorities’ impressive vaccine rollout, swift and coordinated implementation of multi-pronged support measures. The recovery nevertheless remains uneven and the output gap sizeable, with significant downside risks. Going forward, the authorities should calibrate macroeconomic policies to the pace of the recovery, while preserving policy space given pandemic-related uncertainties, and simultaneously accelerate structural reforms.

Although Timor-Leste has made considerable progress in many areas since its independence in 2002, it faces significant medium-term challenges. The nation has pressing development needs, young institutions, and is highly dependent on oil. Oil revenues from active fields, which have been the main source of funding for government spending, are drying up. The non-oil private sector economy remains underdeveloped and lack of good jobs and high youth unemployment are serious concerns.

Sri Lanka fell into an unprecedented crisis as a result of a series of shocks and policy missteps. Debt rose to unsustainable levels resulting from large fiscal imbalances, and access to international capital markets was lost soon after large tax cuts and the onset of the COVID-19. Reserves were depleted, leading to a sharp exchange rate depreciation, and debt service was suspended in the spring of 2022. Sizable monetary financing to meet fiscal obligations contributed to a surge in inflation. Sri Lanka’s economy is in deep recession and financial stability is at risk given the tight financialsovereign nexus. People are suffering from food and energy shortages, exacerbating deep-rooted public dissatisfaction and creating a vulnerable political and social environment.

This guide proposes four initiatives and associated activities that can be adapted to context to enhance the production and use of integrated modelling before, during and after an epidemic or pandemic.

The economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past year has been well-managed by the authorities. Timely and prudent fiscal and monetary easing shielded the economy from the full brunt of the crisis, while alleviating the health and social impact of the shock. Sound economic policies helped deliver macroeconomic stabilization, safeguard debt sustainability, and preserve investor confidence. While growth is expected to rebound in FY2021/22, the outlook is still clouded by uncertainty related to the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations. High public debt and large gross financing needs leave Egypt vulnerable to external shocks or changes in financial market conditions for EMs. Near-term fiscal and monetary policies should thus continue to support the recovery without accumulating undue imbalances.