During the Cold War, when the United States' intelligence efforts were focused on the Soviet Union, one of the primary tasks of the Central Intelligence Agency was to estimate Soviet defense spending. In Soviet Defense Spending: A History of CIA Estimates, 1950-1990, Noel E. Firth and James H. Noren, who spent much of their long CIA careers estimating and studying Soviet defense spending, provide a closer look at those estimates and consider how and why they were made. In the process, the authors chronicle the development of a significant intelligence analytic capability. Firth and Noren also explain what the CIA has learned since the collapse of the Soviet Union about the USSR's actual military spending during the Cold War.

Et effektivt amerikansk svar på den russiske oprustning vil kræve øgede bevillinger til forsvaret, samt en nøjere analyse af udgifternes fordeling inden for USA, s forsvarsprogram. Desuden analyseres ændringen af den militære magtbalance i Europa, samt Mellemøsten og Østasien.

Not too many years ago, the burden of Soviet defense seemed a secondary issue. The conventional estimates of the size of the burden were low and the Soviet economy was growing rapidly. Now, the era of rapid growth seems to have come to an end and the Western estimates of the burden are much higher. The conjunction generates intense interest in the relation between the two developments. Especially important is the role of the defense burden in shaping future growth prospects. How serious a drag on the economy does the Soviet military budget represent? Is cutting defense spending the solution to current Soviet economic problems? Will the military budget nevertheless continue to grow? These questions are the focus of the present paper. The first section considers the various estimates of the size of the Soviet defense burden. It is followed by a discussion of the connections between defense burden and resource allocation choices. A final section speculates on the implications for future defense spending.

This book examines the impact defense spending has on economic growth. While defense spending was not deliberately invented as a fiscal policy instrument, its importance in the composition of overall government spending and thus in determining employment is now easily recognized. In light of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the consequent reduction in the threat to the security of the United States, maintaining defense spending at the old level seems indefensible. The media has concentrated on the so-called peace dividend. However, as soon as the federal government is faced with defense cuts, it realizes the macroeconomic ramifications of such a step. Based on studies included in this volume, we examine the effects of defense spending on economic growth and investigate how the changed world political climate is likely to alter the importance and pattern of defense spending both for developed and developing countries.

Realistic appraisal of Soviet defence efforts is crucial to strategic planning and foreign policy analysis. Since Soviet defence expenditure figures are incomplete, however, our knowledge in this area is extremely limited. This study reviews the state of current knowledge in this field, and presents a critical review of the nature and limitation of traditional approaches. The contributors analyse newly available sources of economic, scientific, and technical military information, and conclude with an in-depth consideration of the relevance and impact of historical and cultural influences on current Russian-Soviet military strategy. There emerges a fascinating account, which both extends our knowledge and understanding, and sheds light on what is perhaps the single most important 'unknown' in the study of international affairs and defence needs.