Ronald M. North President Universities Council on Water Resources People sense intuitively that the world in which we live is not free of risk. Every decision, every action, even the refusal to either act or decide involves some element of risk. Perhaps, because we accept relatively low levels of risk in our daily activi ties, we tend to minimize the existence of risk and thereby fail to include risk assessment in those decisions and actions which could be improved through a risk assessment process. However, our casual approach to risk assessment seems to stem largely from the diffi culties inherent in measuring risk rather than from any lack of cognizance of the existence of risk. This conclusion is evidenced by the many statements in official documents relating to planning and evaluation which suggest that risk assessments should be con ducted but do not provide the mechanism for such assessments nor do they encourage their consideration in the decision making process. This conference on Risk/Benefit Analysis in Water Resources Planning and Management is notable because it attempts to identify and evaluate the mechanisms available for risk assessment which might be useful in water resources planning and management efforts. These proceedings bring together the thoughts of professional per sons who have struggled with the problems of risk assessment and who have contributed to the refinement of both theoretical and pragmatic solutions for the improvement of risk assessment processes.

This book describes concepts and tools needed for water resources management, including methods for modeling, simulation, optimization, big data analysis, data mining, remote sensing, geographical information system, game theory, conflict resolution, System dynamics, agent-based models, multiobjective, multicriteria, and multiattribute decision making and risk and uncertainty analysis, for better and sustainable management of water resources and consumption, thus mitigating the present and future global water shortage crisis. It presents the applications of these tools through case studies which demonstrate its benefits of proper management of water resources systems. This book acts as a reference for students, professors, industrial practitioners, and stakeholders in the field of water resources and hydrology.

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Integrated Water Resource Planning provides practical, evidence-based guidance on water resource planning. In a time of heightened awareness of ecosystem needs, climate change, and increasing and conflicting demands on resources, water professionals and decision-makers around the world are on a steep learning curve. This book presents an international examination of water reform experiences, and provides lessons in how to manage environmental uncertainties, long term management, and increase in demand. It breaks the process down into a series of common steps, applies program logic and evaluation theory, and discusses best practices in assessment, decision making and community engagement. Importantly it recognises the large variation in available knowledge and capacity, risk and scale, and discusses a range of approaches that can be used for different circumstances. The book will fill in the gaps for professionals in interdisciplinary teams including sociologists, hydrologists, engineers, ecologists, and community consultation specialists, by providing a basic grounding in areas outside their usual expertise, and will provide ammunition to community stakeholders in their quest to ensure that water planning outcomes are justified and justifiable. Case studies provide an understanding of the context, practical tools and implementation techniques for achieving sustainable outcomes, and the multi-disciplinary approach and insights offered in this book will be transposable and instructive for water professionals worldwide.