The COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks have taken a deep toll on the Congolese economy, weighing on incomes and inequality. Debt sustainability challenges precluded Fund financial assistance during the pandemic, and the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, approved in 2019, expired in April 2021 without having completed the first review. Recently, debt sustainability has been restored owing to the authorities’ debt restructuring strategy and current and projected higher oil prices. However, the risk of debt distress remains high given liquidity risks and vulnerabilities to negative oil price shocks. The authorities are actively negotiating the resolution of pending external arrears. Until this process is concluded and the negotiations with two external creditors are finalized, debt is classified as being “in distress.”

While the non-mining sector was severely impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, overall growth in Guinea remains strong, reaching 7 percent in 2020, driven by booming mining production. Inflation exceeded 12 percent as a result of COVID-related supply disruptions and the ongoing monetary and fiscal response. The already weak social indicators have deteriorated further.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) highlights that real gross domestic growth reached 5.8 percent in 2018, buoyed by stronger copper and cobalt prices and increased production. The main risks include an escalation of the Ebola epidemic; fiscal loosening leading to monetization of budget deficits; a relapse in copper and cobalt prices; an intensification of ongoing armed conflicts; and resistance to reform from vested interests. Transparency and accountability in the management of natural resources are major challenges facing DRC. It is recommended to step-up revenue mobilization, notably by simplifying taxes and integrating mining revenue into the central government Treasury. It is also important to enhance transparency, including through public tendering for the sale of mining assets, publication of audited financial statements of state-owned enterprises, and greater monitoring of public assets.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Congo discusses that the economic situation remains difficult, however, there are some initial signs of stability, and non-oil growth could turn positive for the first time since 2015. The political environment is stable, though there is discontent with government policies due in part to the authorities’ limited engagement with the private sector and civil society. In the near term, the expansion of oil production explains most of the projected recovery in growth. However, peak oil production will be reached in 2020 rather than 2019 as initially expected. Non-oil growth is expected to pick up gradually as the government starts implementing its arrears clearance strategy, which could have a positive impact on business confidence and credit growth. The report recommends pursuing fiscal consolidation efforts and concludes the debt restructuring process for external commercial debt to restore fiscal sustainability. It is imperative to continue to implement measures to improve governance and tackle corruption, including through the adoption of operational decrees for the High Authority on Corruption and the Commission on Transparency.

The CEMAC’s recovery gained momentum in 2022, supported by higher hydrocarbon prices. The external position strengthened, with a rapid foreign reserve build-up, though still below adequate levels. The recent weakening in external buffers will require more forceful action to tighten liquidity conditions, greater compliance of member countries with foreign exchange regulations and stronger fiscal discipline. Underlying non-oil fiscal positions, however, also deteriorated, stressing the need for accelerating structural reforms, addressing recent fiscal slippages, and bringing polices back in line with Fund-supported program objectives and staff advice. This will be critical to strengthen the region’s resilience to hydrocarbon prices volatility, financial instability, entrenched inflation, tighter financial conditions, food insecurity, domestic conflicts and insecurity, and climate-related events.

Rwanda’s medium-term outlook is positive, supported by the authorities’ large policy package to respond to the evolving COVID-19 pandemic and their continued commitment to the PCI in a challenging environment. Economic recovery is underway with easing of restrictions supported by faster vaccination rates since July. GDP growth is projected at 10.2 percent in 2021 and inflation remained subdued. But Rwanda’s remarkable economic and social progress over the last two decades faces a significant setback, with poverty, unemployment, and gender inequalities on the rise. These pandemic scars, if not addressed, risk reversing hard-won economic and social gains. With a large share of the population still unvaccinated and the emergence of new variants, risks to the outlook remain elevated.

A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Macroeconomic gains under the program so far are partly overshadowed by recurrent shocks. Due to the war in Ukraine and global economic developments, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is experiencing a terms-of-trade shock associated with rising energy and food prices (pushing inflation above 12 percent) and falling prices for mining products. Compounding these headwinds, the escalation of the armed conflict in the east of the country is having major negative economic, security and humanitarian effects, the magnitude of which—if the situation persists or worsens further—could jeopardize recent progress.

The book sheds light on the perhaps most important legal conundrum in the context of sovereign debt restructuring: the holdout creditor problem. Absent an international bankruptcy regime for sovereigns, holdout creditors may delay or even thwart the efficient resolution of sovereign debt crises by leveraging contractual provisions and, in an increasing number of cases, by seeking to enforce a debt claim against the sovereign in courts or international tribunals. Following an introduction to sovereign debt and its restructuring, the book provides the first comprehensive analysis of the holdout creditor problem in the context of the two largest sovereign debt restructuring operations in history: the Argentine restructurings of 2005 and 2010 and the 2012 Greek private sector involvement. By reviewing numerous lawsuits and arbitral proceedings initiated against Argentina and Greece across a dozen different jurisdictions, it distils the organizing principles for ongoing and future cases of sovereign debt restructuring and litigation. It highlights the different approaches judges and arbitrators have adopted when dealing with holdout creditors, ranging from the denial of their contractual right to repayment on human rights grounds to leveraging the international financial infrastructure to coerce governments into meeting holdouts’ demands. To this end, it zooms in on the role the governing law plays in sovereign debt restructurings, revisits the contemporary view on sovereign immunity from suit and enforcement in the international debt context, and examines how creditor rights are balanced with the sovereign’s interest in achieving debt sustainability. Finally, it advances a new genealogy of holdouts, distinguishing between official and private sector holdouts and discussing how the proliferation of new types of uncooperative creditors may affect the sovereign debt architecture going forward. While the book is aimed at practitioners and scholars dealing with sovereign debt and its restructuring, it should also provide the general reader with the understanding of the key legal issues facing countries in debt distress. Moreover, by weaving economic, financial, and political considerations into its analysis of holdout creditor litigation and arbitration, the book also speaks to policymakers without a legal background engaged in the field of international finance and economics.

A new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is creating headwinds for the nascent economic recovery from the deep recession spurred by the pandemic’s onset and related oil price shocks. Over the medium term, reforms supporting improved governance, economic diversification, and resilience will help confront challenges from climate change, and the global transition to low-carbon economies—gradually resulting in improved incomes, job creation, inequality, and exit from fragility. In the near term, fiscal space to address these challenges is limited. Although debt sustainability was recently restored, large liquidity risks and vulnerabilities remain. Due to arrears and on-going negotiations with an external commercial creditor, debt is classified as “in distress”. The recent AIV consultation concluded on September 24, 2021.