The Treasury Committee's report on the Pre-Budget Report 2008 (Cm. 7484, ISBN 9780101748421) considers that the balance of risks to the Treasury's forecast, for a swift recovery in economic growth for 2010 after a significant decline in output in 2009, is on the downside. The report highlights the lack of bank lending as the single most critical problem for the economy in the near term. The overall effect of the fiscal stimulus remains uncertain, the cost of the reduction in VAT is considerable and, in the view of the majority of commentators, the Treasury's analysis of its impact is an optimistic one. The report notes that the risk of a self-reinforcing deflationary cycle exists in the UK economy at present and recommends that the Treasury prepare and publish the actions it may consider taking should a period of "quantitative easing" be needed. While the need for lower interest rates to maintain economic growth is crucial at the present time, the needs of savers must not be forgotten and the Treasury should consider measures that will also support savers at this difficult time. The report notes with concern that the Pre-Budget Report contains no policy measures which will significantly advance meeting the 2010 child poverty target.

The 2008 Pre-Budget Report presents updated assessments and forecasts of the economy and public finances, and reports on how in the face of major global economic shocks the Government intends to support the economy, businesses and households through these uncertain times while delivering its long-term goals. Measures announced include: temporarily reducing the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 15 per cent from1 December 2008 to 31 December 2009; bringing forward £3 billion of capital spending from 2010-11 including introducing a green stimulus supporting low carbon growth and jobs; introducing a new additional higher rate of income tax of 45 per cent for those with incomes above £150,000 from April 2011; increasing national insurance contributions by 0.5 per cent from April 2011; increasing alcohol and tobacco duties; a two pence per litre increase in fuel duty from 1 December). Immediate action to help those individuals and businesses most affected by the economic downturn include: increases in the income tax personal allowance; bringing forward the increase in Child Benefit; increases of the Child Tax Credit and a payment of £60 to all pensioners; help through mortgage rescue and Support for Mortgage Interest schemes for eligible homeowners in difficulty and a commitment from major mortgage lenders not to initiate repossession action within at least three months of an owner-occupier going into arrears; an additional £1.3 billion to support for the unemployed to find a new job; measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises facing credit constraints; a new HMRC Business Payment Support Service to allow businesses in temporary financial difficulty to pay their HMRC tax bills on a timetable they can afford; and more generous tax relief for businesses now making losses and the modification of a number of planned tax reforms, including vehicle excise duty, air passenger duty, and the deferral of the increase in the small companies' rate of corporation tax.

This report examines, firstly, the Treasury's response to recession. The fiscal stimulus measures intended to pull the economy out of recession represent an invaluable opportunity to transform the UK into a low carbon economy. But meeting climate change and renewable energy targets will require a step-change in environmental investment. This year's Pre-Budget Report announced a £535m package of green fiscal stimulus measures designed to tackle economic and environmental problems simultaneously. This investment is welcome, but the scale too small- most of this funding was already committed, and will be offset by reduced spending in 2010-11. Extra funding announced for the Warm Front programme will not deliver the scale and speed of change that is needed. Programmes aimed at improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings should be the number one priority for green fiscal stimulus. It is disappointing that the wider fiscal stimulus package contains hundreds of millions of pounds for road building and widening. The Treasury should publish an assessment of the net impacts of its fiscal stimulus package on the environment. The second part of the report looks at green taxation. In real terms, revenue from green taxes has gone down slightly since 1998, while revenue from all taxation has increased by around 30 per cent. On aviation taxes, the Committee criticise the Treasury's backtracking on replacing Air Passenger Duty with a 'per plane' charge, and exhorts the Government to seek reform of the Chicago Convention so as to allow taxation of international aviation fuel. On motoring taxes, it calls for re-examination of the merits and practicalities of a 'car scrappage' scheme to pay people to trade in their existing, older cars, for newer, more efficient models.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

This report acknowledges that deciding the right time for fiscal consolidation requires making a fine judgement about the resilience of the recovery. It emphasises that a plan to restore the health of the public finances must deal with the structural deficit. While the Treasury aims to cut the deficit from 9% of GDP to 3.6% of GDP in four years, the expert witnesses who examined it all criticised the document for not providing enough information about how this will be achieved. Future Budgets and PBRs should attempt to quantify the downside risks around the structural deficit forecast. There will be uncertainty in these figures, but they are produced as part of the Spending Review process so there appears to be no argument against their publication. Similarly the Bank of England publishes forecasts showing the possible range of inflation rates and publishing information about debt interest on a similar basis would be useful. The recession appears to have had substantially less impact on the labour market than might have been feared, though concern remains about the level of youth unemployment. Repossessions have been far lower than expected however it is recommended that the Treasury proceeds cautiously over the timing of removal of Government support in this area. We do not want to see a return to the times of easy credit, but the Government needs to remain aware of the risk that lending will not support renewed private sector growth as the public sector retrenches. The purpose of the tax on bank bonuses is to change behaviour so that banks increase their capital, rather than providing large discretionary payments to employees. The next Parliament needs to examine the effectiveness of any regime introduced by the Financial Services Bill, in terms both of its success in altering bank behaviour, and of its effect on the competitiveness of the UK financial sector

Budget 2009 : Eighth report of session 2008-09, Vol. 2: Oral and written Evidence

This report examines the conventions and assumptions underlying the fiscal projections within the 2010 Budget (HC 451, session 2009-10, ISBN 9780102964639) that are submitted by the Treasury for examination, along with a review of assumptions on the VAT gap, tobacco revenues, factor shares in national income and funding (debt increase)

The Budget sets out the Government's plans for taxation, public spending and economic growth for the coming year. Details announced include: an annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent for 2006-07 with a forecast of 2.75 to 3.25 per cent for 2007-08; an inflation rate of two per cent this year; and public sector borrowing on course for a 16 billion surplus over the economic cycle ending in 2010-11, with net borrowing set at 37 billion for this year and 36 billion next year, falling to 23 billion in the year to 2010-11.

In its report examining the work and performance of the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills (DIUS), set up 18 months ago, the Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills Committee finds that the department has not yet found its feet and it is too early to say if it will achieve the Prime Minister's ambitious targets. The DIUS annual report is 'impenetrable' and 'peppered with jargon', and the Committee fears that the jargon may be a substitute for having a clear idea about where DIUS is going and how it will achieve the Prime Minister's goals to make Britain one of the best places in the world for science, research and innovation. Examples of innovation in DIUS's own operations were disappointing, and the Committee also has doubts about the way DIUS presents figures and calls for the statistics in future annual reports to be reviewed independently. The Committee also expresses concern about the approach of the Government's new Chief Scientific Adviser to his role as a champion of evidence-based science, and draws attention to Professor Beddington's evidence on homeopathy in which he did not take the opportunity to restate the importance of scientific process and to emphasise the need for balance of scientific evidence. The customary, strong public voice from the Government Chief Scientific Adviser advocating policy based on evidence-based science must not become muted. The Committee also recommends that DIUS: develops a consistent method for ensuring policy is soundly based on evidence; faces up to and addresses the criticisms it received in the Capability Review; shows clearly how £1.5 billion in efficiency savings it has promised will be generated.

This report from the Treasury Committee examines the recent economic analysis and assessment of the UK economy as outlined in the 2006 pre-budget report, and sets out a number of conclusions and recommendations, including: the Committee welcomes the recent rise in the growth rate of business investment, but with the caveat that the downside risk as highlighted in a previous weakness for business investment, remains unexplained; that several risks exist around the consumption growth forecast, including the potential of house prices to fall, and the increase of personal insolvency; the employment rate rise is commended, but a lack of migration statistics in relation to the labour market, means an overall assessment is not possible; although an improved forecast for economic growth in 2006, the Treasury has not forecast an improvement in the fiscal position; the Government appears to be on track to meet the golden rule in the current economic cycle, but will start the next economic cycle with its current budget in deficit; the Committee recommends also that the Treasury, in future Budgets and Pre-Budget reports provide a fuller explanation of its current forecast of the start and end dates of the current economic cycle; also, future Budget and Pre-Budget reports should provide a breakdown of reported efficiency gains by department, and further to enhance transparency and enable effective scrutiny, the Treasury should require departments in their departmental annual reports and Autumn Performance reports in 2007 and in later years to provide consistent and comprehensive information on progress against efficiency targets; the Committee expressed dissatisfaction at the lateness and vagueness of information in relation to expenditure on education, but approved the early announcement of capital spending plans for education up to 2010-11; the Committee though does welcome the Government's decision to commission and publish a range of reviews informing future economic policy, including tax policy; the Pre-Budget report is seen as an effective instrument of fiscal consultation, but this could be enhanced if Parliament and the public were given greater notice of the date of the report, perhaps 4 weeks before the statement is due to be made; where tax changes carry significant risk of forestalling activity or distorting market behaviour, such as the unusual timing and implementation of the increases in Air Passenger Duty, the Committee feels, as a general rule, that those increases should not come into force until the House of Commons has had an opportunity to come to a formal decision on such an increase.