In the evolution of scientific theories, concern with uncertainty is almost invariably a concomitant of maturation. This is certainly true of the evolution· of physics, economics, operations research, communication sciences, and a host of other fields. And it is true of what has been happening more recently in the area of artificial intelligence, most notably in the development of theories relating to the management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems. In science, it is traditional to deal with uncertainty through the use of probability theory. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly clear that there are some important facets of uncertainty which do not lend themselves to analysis by classical probability-based methods. One such facet is that of lexical elasticity, which relates to the fuzziness of words in natural languages. As a case in point, even a simple relation X, Y, and Z, expressed as if X is small and Y is very large then between Z is not very small, does not lend itself to a simple interpretation within the framework of probability theory by reason of the lexical elasticity of the predicates small and large.

Using the Kolmogorov model, this intermediate-level text discusses random variables, probability distributions, mathematical expectation, random processes, more. For advanced undergraduates students of science, engineering, or math. Includes problems with answers and six appendixes. 1965 edition.

This practical guidebook describes the basic concepts, the mathematical developments, and the engineering methodologies for exploiting possibility theory for the computer-based design of an information fusion system where the goal is decision support for industries in smart ICT (information and communications technologies). This exploitation of possibility theory improves upon probability theory, complements Dempster-Shafer theory, and fills an important gap in this era of Big Data and Internet of Things. The book discusses fundamental possibilistic concepts: distribution, necessity measure, possibility measure, joint distribution, conditioning, distances, similarity measures, possibilistic decisions, fuzzy sets, fuzzy measures and integrals, and finally, the interrelated theories of uncertainty..uncertainty. These topics form an essential tour of the mathematical tools needed for the latter chapters of the book. These chapters present applications related to decision-making and pattern recognition schemes, and finally, a concluding chapter on the use of possibility theory in the overall challenging design of an information fusion system. This book will appeal to researchers and professionals in the field of information fusion and analytics, information and knowledge processing, smart ICT, and decision support systems.

The book deals with some of the fundamental issues of risk assessment in grid computing environments. The book describes the development of a hybrid probabilistic and possibilistic model for assessing the success of a computing task in a grid environment

This classic introduction to probability theory for beginning graduate students covers laws of large numbers, central limit theorems, random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theorems, and Brownian motion. It is a comprehensive treatment concentrating on the results that are the most useful for applications. Its philosophy is that the best way to learn probability is to see it in action, so there are 200 examples and 450 problems. The fourth edition begins with a short chapter on measure theory to orient readers new to the subject.

Since its inception by Professor Lotfi Zadeh about 18 years ago, the theory of fuzzy sets has evolved in many directions, and is finding applications in a wide variety of fields in which the phenomena under study are too complex or too ill-defined to be analyzed by conventional techniques. Thus, by providing a basis for a systematic approach to approximate reasoning and inexact inference, the theory of fuzzy sets may well have a substantial impact on scientific methodology in the years ahead, particularly in the realms of psychology, economics, engineering, law, medicine, decision-analysis, information retrieval, and artificial intelli gence. This volume consists of 24 selected papers invited by the editor, Professor Paul P. Wang. These papers cover the theory and applications of fuzzy sets, almost equal in number. We are very fortunate to have Professor A. Kaufmann to contribute an overview paper of the advances in fuzzy sets. One special feature of this volume is the strong participation of Chinese researchers in this area. The fact is that Chinese mathematicians, scientists and engineers have made important contributions to the theory and applications of fuzzy sets through the past decade. However, not until the visit of Professor A. Kaufmann to China in 1974 and again in 1980, did the Western World become fully aware of the important work of Chinese researchers. Now, Professor Paul Wang has initiated the effort to document these important contributions in this volume to expose them to the western researchers.

This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.

Preface Part I. Non-Naturalist Theories of Possibility: 1. Causal argument 2. Non-Naturalist theories of possibility Part II. A Combinatorial and Naturalist Account of Possibility: 3. Possibility in a simple world 4. Expanding and contracting the world 5. Relative atoms 6. Are there de re incompatibilities and necessities? 7. Higher-order entities, negation and causation 8. Supervenience 9. Mathematics 10. Final questions: logic Works cited Appendix: Tractarian Nominalism Brian Skyrms Index.

Events are a kind of abstraction achieved through mathematical process. This abstraction is done on the base of non-deterministic events. Measured quantities can also be used for such abstraction. Measured quantities can be single occurrence or also follow random fashion for time evolving multiple occurrences. Making predictions about the outcome of random events is not always easy or even impossible sometimes. However, if influences are made on sequence of individual events, they will tend to follow certain patterns that are much easy to study, practice and predict. For instance, if outcome of coin flipping or roll of dice is influenced by outer factors such as friction, they will follow a specific pattern when proving outcome. Once this certain pattern is figured out and understood properly, it becomes much easier to predict the outcome with maximum accuracy. It means that it is hard to understand future outcome of subsequent random events that makes it hard to predict them. However, it is easy to predict pattern exhibited by these group of events that makes it easy to predict them and their corresponding events also. To describe such patterns certain mathematical results or concepts are used. Law of large numbers and central limit theorem are two main concepts that are used to study and describe such patterns followed by sequential random events.

Probability theory