The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for securing and managing the nation's borders. Over the past decade, DHS has dramatically stepped up its enforcement efforts at the U.S.-Mexico border, increasing the number of U.S. Border patrol (USBP) agents, expanding the deployment of technological assets, and implementing a variety of "consequence programs" intended to deter illegal immigration. During this same period, there has also been a sharp decline in the number of unauthorized migrants apprehended at the border. Trends in total apprehensions do not, however, by themselves speak to the effectiveness of DHS's investments in immigration enforcement. In particular, to evaluate whether heightened enforcement efforts have contributed to reducing the flow of undocumented migrants, it is critical to estimate the number of border-crossing attempts during the same period for which apprehensions data are available. With these issues in mind, DHS charged the National Research Council (NRC) with providing guidance on the use of surveys and other methodologies to estimate the number of unauthorized crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border, preferably by geographic region and on a quarterly basis. Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-Mexico Border focuses on Mexican migrants since Mexican nationals account for the vast majority (around 90 percent) of attempted unauthorized border crossings across the U.S.-Mexico border.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for securing and managing the nation's borders. Over the past decade, DHS has dramatically stepped up its enforcement efforts at the U.S.-Mexico border, increasing the number of U.S. Border patrol (USBP) agents, expanding the deployment of technological assets, and implementing a variety of "consequence programs" intended to deter illegal immigration. During this same period, there has also been a sharp decline in the number of unauthorized migrants apprehended at the border. Trends in total apprehensions do not, however, by themselves speak to the effectiveness of DHS's investments in immigration enforcement. In particular, to evaluate whether heightened enforcement efforts have contributed to reducing the flow of undocumented migrants, it is critical to estimate the number of border-crossing attempts during the same period for which apprehensions data are available. With these issues in mind, DHS charged the National Research Council (NRC) with providing guidance on the use of surveys and other methodologies to estimate the number of unauthorized crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border, preferably by geographic region and on a quarterly basis. Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-Mexico Border focuses on Mexican migrants since Mexican nationals account for the vast majority (around 90 percent) of attempted unauthorized border crossings across the U.S.-Mexico border.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is responsible for controlling the flow of goods and people across the U.S. border, but compelling methods for producing estimates of the total flow of illicit goods or border crossings do not yet exist. This paper describes four innovative approaches to estimating the total flow of illicit border crossings between ports of entry. Each approach is sufficiently promising to warrant further attention.

The authors examine U.S. efforts to prevent illegal immigration to the United States. Although the United States has witnessed a sharp drop in illegal border crossings in the past decade alongside an enormous increase in government activities to prevent illegal immigration, there remains little understanding of the role enforcement has played. Better data and analyses to assist lawmakers in crafting more successful policies and to support administration officials in implementing these policies are long overdue.

Controlling illegal immigration into the United States has become a major issue in U.S. politics. A February 1997 report released by the INS estimates that there are currently 5 million illegal aliens in the United States. In 1986, when the estimated number of illegal aliens was also 5 million nationally, the U.S. Congress passed an immigration reform that allowed for many of the undocumented workers in the United States to become legal residents. Approximately, 3 million illegal immigrants have become legal residents since the passage of the 1986 legislation. The latest estimate confirms the claims of some U.S. lawmakers and immigration activists that U.S. immigration policy is largely ineffective. In 1995 two bills were introduced into the U.S. House of Representatives that called for the use of U.S. military forces to assist the INS in controlling the flow of illegal immigration. Both bills were killed in committee. With the most recent INS estimate, it is possible that similar legislation will again be introduced. This thesis examines the military option for border control. The findings are that the use of the military to control illegal immigration would result in lowered military readiness, and that the militarization of the border will produce tensions in U.S.-Mexico and U.S.-Latin American relations. Therefore, it is recommended that the military not be used to supplement the Border Patrol.

This report presents initial findings from a scoping study titled “Economic Value of Human Smuggling to Transnational Criminal Organizations.” A primary goal of this study, which was completed in less than two months, was to develop a preliminary estimate of transnational criminal organizations’ (TCOs’) revenues from smuggling migrants from the Northern Triangle region of Central America—consisting of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador—to the United States. In addition, we sought to establish what is known or knowable about the characteristics, including the structure, operations, and financing, of TCOs that engage in human smuggling along those routes.

This important new book reveals how the stricter US border-control activities of the past decade have affected the behavior of migrants and potential migrants in rural Mexico. The authors establish direct links between changes in immigration-control policies and changes in the decision to migrate, choice of destination, mode of entry, and inclination to participate in a temporary worker program. They also point to the unintended consequences of new control measures, such as the increasing rate of settlement among illegal migrants, higher fees paid to professional people - smugglers, increased injury and fatality rates due to clandestine entry, and changing composition of migrant flows. Collectively, they present detailed and direct evidence of the failure of post-1993 US strategy to deter unauthorized entry across the US-Mexico border, and the reasons for this failure.