Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.

Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.

Bringing together prominent scholars, this authoritative volume considers the development of personality at multiple levels--from the neuroscience of dispositional traits to the cultural shaping of life stories. Illustrated with case studies and concrete examples, the Handbook integrates areas of research that have often remained disparate. It offers a lifespan perspective on the many factors that influence each individual's psychological makeup and examines the interface of personality development with health, psychopathology, relationships, and the family. Contributors provide broad-based, up-to-date reviews of theories, empirical findings, methodological innovations, and emerging trends. See also the authored volume The Art and Science of Personality Development, by Dan P. McAdams.

Stress: Concepts, Cognition, Emotion, and Behavior: Handbook in Stress Series, Volume 1, examines stress and its management in the workplace and is targeted at scientific and clinical researchers in biomedicine, psychology, and some aspects of the social sciences. The audience is appropriate faculty and graduate and undergraduate students interested in stress and its consequences. The format allows access to specific self-contained stress subsections without the need to purchase the whole nine volume Stress handbook series. This makes the publication much more affordable than the previously published four volume Encyclopedia of Stress (Elsevier 2007) in which stress subsections were arranged alphabetically and therefore required purchase of the whole work. This feature will be of special significance for individual scientists and clinicians, as well as laboratories. In this first volume of the series, the primary focus will be on general stress concepts as well as the areas of cognition, emotion, and behavior. - Offers chapters with impressive scope, covering topics including the interactions between stress, cognition, emotion and behaviour - Features articles carefully selected by eminent stress researchers and prepared by contributors representing outstanding scholarship in the field - Includes rich illustrations with explanatory figures and tables - Includes boxed call out sections that serve to explain key concepts and methods - Allows access to specific self-contained stress subsections without the need to purchase the whole nine volume Stress handbook series

Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives.

Capital market liberalization has been a key battle in the debate on globalization for much of the previous two decades. Many developing countries, often at the behest of international financial institutions such as the IMF, opened their capital accounts and liberalized their domestic financial markets as part of the wave of liberalization that characterized the 1980s and 1990s and in doing so exposed their economies to increased risk and volatility. Now with even the IMF acknowledging the risks inherent in capital market liberalization, the central intellectual battle over the effects of capital market liberalization has for the most part ended. Though this new understanding of the consequences of capital market liberalization is reshaping many policy discussions among academics and international institutions, ideological and vested interests remain. Critical policy debates also remain, such as how much government should intervene and what tools are available. Although capital market liberalization might not produce the promised benefits, many economists and policymakers still worry about the costs of intervention. Do these costs exceed the benefits? What are the best kinds of interventions, under what circumstances? To answer these questions, we have to understand why capital market liberalization has failed to enhance growth, why it has resulted in greater instability, why the poor appear to have borne the greatest burden, and why the advocates of capital market liberalization were so wrong. Bringing together some of the leading researchers and practitioners in the field, this volume provides an analysis of both the risks associated with capital market liberalization and the alternative policy options available to enhance macroeconomic management.

Proven techniques for leading-instead of following-fast-changing markets Investors, no matter what strategy they are using, can be placed into two categories. Single-minded, inflexible hedgehogs lock into one strategy and stick with it through thick and thin. Dynamic, adaptable foxes, on the other hand, are alert for changes, learn from experience, embrace new ideas, and make the most of new trends and technologies. The key lies in being flexible and realizing that markets are dynamic. Invest Like a Fox . . . Not Like a Hedgehog shows investors how being a hedgehog can reduce returns while increasing the risk of a portfolio, and how acquiring the cunning and adaptability of the fox will improve returns while reducing risk. It reveals the shortcomings of popular but hedgehog-like investment strategies and shows how a fox-like investor adjusts to new market realities. Readers learn how to use the renowned Bayesian Theory of Probability and other guideposts from outside the world of finance to adjust their strategies and react to new information.

The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.

This book presents a thorough overview of a model of human functioning based on the idea that behavior is goal-directed and regulated by feedback control processes. It describes feedback processes and their application to behavior, considers goals and the idea that goals are organized hierarchically, examines affect as deriving from a different kind of feedback process, and analyzes how success expectancies influence whether people keep trying to attain goals or disengage. Later sections consider a series of emerging themes, including dynamic systems as a model for shifting among goals, catastrophe theory as a model for persistence, and the question of whether behavior is controlled or instead 'emerges'. Three chapters consider the implications of these various ideas for understanding maladaptive behavior, and the closing chapter asks whether goals are a necessity of life. Throughout, theory is presented in the context of diverse issues that link the theory to other literatures.

Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian and real business cycle traditions into a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that serves as a foundation for thinking about macro policy. That new synthesis has opened up the door to a new antithesis, which is being driven by advances in computing power and analytic techniques. This new synthesis is coalescing around developments in complexity theory, automated general to specific econometric modeling, agent-based models, and non-linear and statistical dynamical models. This book thus provides the reader with an introduction to what might be called a Post Walrasian research program that is developing as the antithesis of the Walrasian DSGE synthesis.