This book presents a comprehensive study of multivariate time series with linear state space structure. The emphasis is put on both the clarity of the theoretical concepts and on efficient algorithms for implementing the theory. In particular, it investigates the relationship between VARMA and state space models, including canonical forms. It also highlights the relationship between Wiener-Kolmogorov and Kalman filtering both with an infinite and a finite sample. The strength of the book also lies in the numerous algorithms included for state space models that take advantage of the recursive nature of the models. Many of these algorithms can be made robust, fast, reliable and efficient. The book is accompanied by a MATLAB package called SSMMATLAB and a webpage presenting implemented algorithms with many examples and case studies. Though it lays a solid theoretical foundation, the book also focuses on practical application, and includes exercises in each chapter. It is intended for researchers and students working with linear state space models, and who are familiar with linear algebra and possess some knowledge of statistics.

Offering a broad overview of the state-of-the-art developments in the theory and applications of state space modeling, fourteen chapters from twenty-three contributors present a unique synthesis of state space methods and unobserved component models important in a wide range of subjects. They include economics, finance, environmental science, medicine and engineering. A useful reference for all researchers and students who use state space methodology, this accessible volume makes a significant contribution to the advancement of the discipline.

A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.

State space time series analysis emerged in the 1960s in engineering, but its applications have spread to other fields. Durbin (statistics, London School of Economics and Political Science) and Koopman (econometrics, Free U., Amsterdam) extol the virtues of such models over the main analytical system currently used for time series data, Box-Jenkins' ARIMA. What distinguishes state space time models is that they separately model components such as trend, seasonal, regression elements and disturbance terms. Part I focuses on traditional and new techniques based on the linear Gaussian model. Part II presents new material extending the state space model to non-Gaussian observations. c. Book News Inc.

This new edition updates Durbin & Koopman's important text on the state space approach to time series analysis. The distinguishing feature of state space time series models is that observations are regarded as made up of distinct components such as trend, seasonal, regression elements and disturbance terms, each of which is modelled separately. The techniques that emerge from this approach are very flexible and are capable of handling a much wider range of problems than the main analytical system currently in use for time series analysis, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA system. Additions to this second edition include the filtering of nonlinear and non-Gaussian series. Part I of the book obtains the mean and variance of the state, of a variable intended to measure the effect of an interaction and of regression coefficients, in terms of the observations. Part II extends the treatment to nonlinear and non-normal models. For these, analytical solutions are not available so methods are based on simulation.

The use of methods of time series analysis in the study of multivariate time series has become of increased interest in recent years. Although the methods are rather well developed and understood for univarjate time series analysis, the situation is not so complete for the multivariate case. This book is designed to introduce the basic concepts and methods that are useful in the analysis and modeling of multivariate time series, with illustrations of these basic ideas. The development includes both traditional topics such as autocovariance and auto correlation matrices of stationary processes, properties of vector ARMA models, forecasting ARMA processes, least squares and maximum likelihood estimation techniques for vector AR and ARMA models, and model checking diagnostics for residuals, as well as topics of more recent interest for vector ARMA models such as reduced rank structure, structural indices, scalar component models, canonical correlation analyses for vector time series, multivariate unit-root models and cointegration structure, and state-space models and Kalman filtering techniques and applications. This book concentrates on the time-domain analysis of multivariate time series, and the important subject of spectral analysis is not considered here. For that topic, the reader is referred to the excellent books by Jenkins and Watts (1968), Hannan (1970), Priestley (1981), and others.

State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.

This book presents the entire body of thought of Norbert Wiener (1894–1964), knowledge of which is essential if one wishes to understand and correctly interpret the age in which we live. The focus is in particular on the philosophical and sociological aspects of Wiener’s thought, but these aspects are carefully framed within the context of his scientific journey. Important biographical events, including some that were previously unknown, are also highlighted, but while the book has a biographical structure, it is not only a biography. The book is divided into four chronological sections, the first two of which explore Wiener’s development as a philosopher and logician and his brilliant interwar career as a mathematician, supported by his philosophical background. The third section considers his research during World War II, which drew upon his previous scientific work and reflections and led to the birth of cybernetics. Finally, the radical post-war shift in Wiener’s intellectual path is considered, examining how he came to abandon computer science projects and commenced ceaseless public reflections on the new sciences and technologies of information, their social effects, and the need for responsibility in science.

Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series addresses some of the problems of modeling stationary and nonstationary time series primarily from a Bayesian stochastic regression "smoothness priors" state space point of view. Prior distributions on model coefficients are parametrized by hyperparameters. Maximizing the likelihood of a small number of hyperparameters permits the robust modeling of a time series with relatively complex structure and a very large number of implicitly inferred parameters. The critical statistical ideas in smoothness priors are the likelihood of the Bayesian model and the use of likelihood as a measure of the goodness of fit of the model. The emphasis is on a general state space approach in which the recursive conditional distributions for prediction, filtering, and smoothing are realized using a variety of nonstandard methods including numerical integration, a Gaussian mixture distribution-two filter smoothing formula, and a Monte Carlo "particle-path tracing" method in which the distributions are approximated by many realizations. The methods are applicable for modeling time series with complex structures.

This authoritative work provides an in-depth treatment of state space methods, with a range of applications in neural and clinical data. Advanced and state-of-the-art research topics are detailed, including topics in state space analyses, maximum likelihood methods, variational Bayes, sequential Monte Carlo, Markov chain Monte Carlo, nonparametric Bayesian, and deep learning methods. Details are provided on practical applications in neural and clinical data, whether this is characterising time series data from neural spike trains recorded from the rat hippocampus, the primate motor cortex, or the human EEG, MEG or fMRI, or physiological measurements of heartbeats or blood pressures. With real-world case studies of neuroscience experiments and clinical data sets, and written by expert authors from across the field, this is an ideal resource for anyone working in neuroscience and physiological data analysis.