Malaysia’s economy is showing signs of a gradual yet steady recovery thanks to the authorities’ impressive vaccine rollout, swift and coordinated implementation of multi-pronged support measures. The recovery nevertheless remains uneven and the output gap sizeable, with significant downside risks. Going forward, the authorities should calibrate macroeconomic policies to the pace of the recovery, while preserving policy space given pandemic-related uncertainties, and simultaneously accelerate structural reforms.

The global energy transition is affecting fossil fuel exporters from multiple angles. It is adding to longstanding uncertainties on relative movements of fossil fuel demand and supply—which impact fossil fuel-related exports, fiscal flows, investment and subsequently external and fiscal accounts, economic growth, and employment. While policymakers are very familiar with these challenges, they now also face expectations of a permanent decline in the long-run global demand for fossil fuels. Key factors that could determine country-level impacts include (i) the type of fossil fuel a country exports (ii) extraction costs and (iii) country characteristics. The monitoring and mitigation of fiscal risks will need to be stepped up. Fiscal policy also has a role in reducing domestic emissions, encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies, and helping those most vulnerable to changes from the transition. Broader macroeconomic risks can be reduced by accelerating ongoing structural reforms that support alternative engines of growth. Low- or zero-carbon emission energy industries could offer new avenues that build on existing fossil fuel knowledge and infrastructure. Concurrently, improved financial regulation and supervision could reduce financial sector exposures. Finally, international coordination on the design and implementation of climate policy as well as international transfer schemes (financing and capacity development) could reduce uncertainties surrounding the transition path and associated adverse economic consequences.

After being hit very hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of health and economic outcomes, Peru experienced an equally strong economic rebound in 2021. A new administration was inaugurated in July 2021 with a program focused on reducing inequality and improving social conditions, but limited support from Congress and lack of cohesion heightened political uncertainty. While real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 2021, labor force participation and total employment have not fully recovered yet. Poverty increased significantly in 2020 and, despite some improvement in 2021, remains higher than in 2019. On May 27, 2021, the IMF Executive Board completed the mid-term review of Peru’s continued qualification under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement.

Colombia’s economy rebounded strongly in 2021 with 10.6 percent growth led by pent-up domestic demand, notably private consumption. Around 66 percent of the population is fully vaccinated against Covid-19 as of end-February and the economy continues to reopen more fully. While GDP has already reached pre-pandemic levels, employment has trailed in its recovery and macroeconomic imbalances have emerged. Amid strong demand, supply constraints, and rising commodity prices, rising inflation exceeded the upper limit of the central bank’s tolerance range in 2021. With demand-led growth and higher import prices, the current account deficit widened to 53⁄4 percent of GDP. Under staff’s assumptions for the evolution of the pandemic, above-potential growth around 51⁄2 percent is expected in 2022, led by robust household consumption and a continued recovery of investment and exports. External vulnerabilities remain elevated with high external financing needs and tighter financial conditions. External risks remain elevated and an intensification of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine may impart considerable volatility in financial and commodity markets. Domestic risks are also tilted to the downside—including uncertainty around the evolution of the pandemic, political uncertainty with national elections this year, and slower implementation of the infrastructure agenda and peace accords.

A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.

This paper outlines key changes in the global trade landscape in recent years, reviews the role of the Fund in this area, and outlines a trade strategy for the Fund going forward. The analysis points to three key messages. First, while trade has been resilient vis-à-vis recent global shocks, the deteriorating trade policy environment poses risks to the current levels of prosperity. Second, the Fund has responded quickly to key trade developments in its multilateral surveillance, but attention to trade policy has declined pointing to the need of improved expertise. Third, a reinvigorated trade strategy for the Fund would help country authorities to address key challenges, including adjusting to structural changes associated with climate change and new technologies; promoting policy coherence between trade and non-trade objectives such as climate, inequality, and security; and managing rising geopolitical tensions and risks of geo-economic fragmentation.

Malaysia’s growth momentum has slowed but remains resilient to external headwinds. While monetary policy has paused its tightening cycle, fiscal policy is consolidating, and the ringgit had been under pressure through most of 2023. The government’s commitment to the reform priorities outlined in its national strategic plans is yet to fully materialize, with the economy’s path to high-income status hanging in the balance.

The economy is recovering from a historic downturn thanks to policy support, rebounding oil prices and international financial assistance. Benefiting from the authorities’ pro-active approach, COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities have been contained. With higher oil prices and the country entering into the 2023 Presidential election cycle, there are risks of delays in much needed fiscal and exchange rate reforms. Macroeconomic and structural policies should build confidence and ensure a robust exit from the crisis.

The pandemic interrupted ten years of growth, but El Salvador is rebounding quickly. Robust external demand, resilient remittances, and a sound management of the pandemic—with the help of a disbursement under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) (SDR287.2 million or US$389 million) approved in April 2020—are supporting a strong recovery. Persistent fiscal deficits and high debt service are leading to large and increasing gross fiscal financing needs.

South Africa’s subpar economic performance over the last decade has weakened its macroeconomic fundamentals and social indicators. In response to formidable COVID-19-related challenges, government expenditure surged, and, amid declining revenue, the budget deficit widened significantly. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the Prudential Authority (PA) preserved adequate liquidity conditions and financial-sector stability. The cyclical recovery from the deep contraction has been faster than expected but its strength is unlikely to be sustained. Benign global market conditions have supported asset performance, although term premia are elevated due to fiscal risks. Bank soundness indicators remain solid, but a deepening bank-sovereign nexus raises some concerns.