Raising interest rates is clearly essential to the success of any stabilization and adjustment programs that Egypt undertakes. But to reduce the risks of higher interest rates to its distorted economy, and to increase the benefits, increases in interest rates need to be accompanied by other adjustment measures.

This book studies the impact of Egypt's Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Programme (ERSAP), the effects of which have been of great interest to the international community. Organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF uphold the programme as a success story and example for other countries to follow. ERSAP also has its critics, however, who resent its tendency to downsize government and fear possible negative effects on growth and development. The author discusses these concerns along with those regarding the possible negative social effects of ERSAP.

This paper analyzes the successful Egyptian stabilization experience during the 1990s, focusing on its distinctive features and contrasting them with the recent experiences of other developing countries. The key policy elements were a large fiscal adjustment, use of an exchange rate anchor that has endured for over six years, supported by prudent monetary policies, and early moves to liberalize interest and exchange markets. The outcomes included the avoidance of an output collapse despite the magnitude of fiscal adjustment; avoidance of stresses on the financial system; reversal of endemic dollarization; financial deepening at the expense of the banking system; and maintenance of external viability despite a lackluster export performance.

Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

This paper documents the main themes covered in two seminars (December 2011 and September 2012) on monetary policy and implementation at the IMF—Middle East Center for Economics and Finance, and includes country case studies. Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis and swings in cross-border capital flows, operational frameworks have become more flexible, and liquidity management has impacted the relationship between the policy rate corridor and market rates. The balance sheet structure of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) shows differences between oil exporters and others, while a few countries have exhibited notable changes since early 2011. Collateral now has a significant financial stability function. Although only one MENA country is part of the G20, implementation of the Basel III bank capital adequacy and liquidity rules will most likely impact banks’ way of doing business in MENA countries, even if indirectly.

The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.

This paper investigates the degree of inflation inertia in Egypt and its determinants using the cross country data consisting of over 100 countries. Medium-unbiased estimator of inflation inertia in Egypt is high compared to other countries, as indicated by its location around the upper quartile among the sample. The cross country analysis indicates that counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy and fiscal consolidation are a key to reduce inflation inertia and the costs of disinflation.

Heterodox stabilization programs are more successful in chronic high inflation countries because only there can the benefits from achieving a rapid initial reduction in inflation outweigh the costs of tampering with price and wage controls. While the heterodox phase is effective in blocking inflation initially, success depends on a long- term commitment to the orthodox part of the program and the readiness to accept the unavoidable costs of disinflation.

Macroeconomic crises in the 1980s made it more difficult to design policies to alleviate poverty because of the need to stabilize the economy and promote restructuring that would ensure long- term growth.

Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.