Though we commonly make them the butt of our jokes, weather forecasters are in fact exceptionally good at managing uncertainty. They consistently do a better job calibrating their performance than stockbrokers, physicians, or other decision-making experts precisely because they receive feedback on their decisions in near real time. Following forecasters in their quest for truth and accuracy, therefore, holds the key to the analytically elusive process of decision making as it actually happens. In Masters of Uncertainty, Phaedra Daipha develops a new conceptual framework for the process of decision making, after spending years immersed in the life of a northeastern office of the National Weather Service. Arguing that predicting the weather will always be more craft than science, Daipha shows how forecasters have made a virtue of the unpredictability of the weather. Impressive data infrastructures and powerful computer models are still only a substitute for the real thing outside, and so forecasters also enlist improvisational collage techniques and an omnivorous appetite for information to create a locally meaningful forecast on their computer screens. Intent on capturing decision making in action, Daipha takes the reader through engrossing firsthand accounts of several forecasting episodes (hits and misses) and offers a rare fly-on-the-wall insight into the process and challenges of producing meteorological predictions come rain or come shine. Combining rich detail with lucid argument, Masters of Uncertainty advances a theory of decision making that foregrounds the pragmatic and situated nature of expert cognition and casts into new light how we make decisions in the digital age.

List of members in v. 1, 8.

Weather radar is a vital instrument for observing the atmosphere to help provide weather forecasts and issue weather warnings to the public. The current Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) system provides Doppler radar coverage to most regions of the United States (NRC, 1995). This network was designed in the mid 1980s and deployed in the 1990s as part of the National Weather Service (NWS) modernization (NRC, 1999). Since the initial design phase of the NEXRAD program, considerable advances have been made in radar technologies and in the use of weather radar for monitoring and prediction. The development of new technologies provides the motivation for appraising the status of the current weather radar system and identifying the most promising approaches for the development of its eventual replacement. The charge to the committee was to determine the state of knowledge regarding ground-based weather surveillance radar technology and identify the most promising approaches for the design of the replacement for the present Doppler Weather Radar. This report presents a first look at potential approaches for future upgrades to or replacements of the current weather radar system. The need, and schedule, for replacing the current system has not been established, but the committee used the briefings and deliberations to assess how the current system satisfies the current and emerging needs of the operational and research communities and identified potential system upgrades for providing improved weather forecasts and warnings. The time scale for any total replacement of the system (20- to 30-year time horizon) precluded detailed investigation of the designs and cost structures associated with any new weather radar system. The committee instead noted technologies that could provide improvements over the capabilities of the evolving NEXRAD system and recommends more detailed investigation and evaluation of several of these technologies. In the course of its deliberations, the committee developed a sense that the processes by which the eventual replacement radar system is developed and deployed could be as significant as the specific technologies adopted. Consequently, some of the committee's recommendations deal with such procedural issues.

One of the driving forces behind much of modern science and technology is the desire to foresee and thereby control the future. In recent years, however, it has become clear that, even in a deterministic world, there is alimit to the accuracy with which we can predict the future. This book details, in a largely nontechnical style, the extent to which we can predict the future development of various physical, biological and socio-economic processes.

This Topical Volume focuses on aviation meteorology for operations and research, covering important topics related to wind and turbulence, visibility, fog and precipitation, convection and lightning, icing, blowing snow, and ice cloud microphysics and dynamics. In addition to forecasting issues, the impact of climate on aviation operations is also highlighted, as temperature and moisture changes can affect aircraft aerodynamic conditions, such as lift and drag forces. This work uses measurements from state of art in-situ instruments and simulation results from numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. New technologies related to satellites, radars, lidars, and UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) are described, as well as new analysis methods related to artificial intelligence (AI) and neural network systems. Use of remote sensing platforms, including satellites, radars, radiometers, ceilometers, sodars, and lidars, as well as knowledge of the in-situ observations for the monitoring and short-term forecasting of wind, turbulence, gust, clear air turbulence (CAT), low visibility due to fog and clouds, and precipitation types are required for aviation operations at the airports and high level flying conditions. This book provides extensive knowledge for aviation-related meteorological processes and events that include short and long term prediction of high impact weather systems. Aviation experts, weather offices, pilots, university students, postgraduates, and researchers interested in aviation and meteorology, including new instruments for measurements applicable to forecasting and nowcasting, can benefit from consulting and reading this book. This book provides a comprehensive overview of our existing knowledge and the numerous remaining difficulties in predicting and measuring issues related to wind and turbulence, convection, fog and visibility, various cloud types, icing, and ice clouds at various time and space scales. Previously published in Pure and Applied Geophysics, Volume 176, Issue 5, 2019

"Covers a wide range of topics. Should be both interesting and challenging to the novice. ...a handy guide for those in the field". -- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

A detailed study of research on the psychology of expertise in weather forecasting, drawing on findings in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science. This book argues that the human cognition system is the least understood, yet probably most important, component of forecasting accuracy. Minding the Weather investigates how people acquire massive and highly organized knowledge and develop the reasoning skills and strategies that enable them to achieve the highest levels of performance. The authors consider such topics as the forecasting workplace; atmospheric scientists' descriptions of their reasoning strategies; the nature of expertise; forecaster knowledge, perceptual skills, and reasoning; and expert systems designed to imitate forecaster reasoning. Drawing on research in cognitive science, meteorology, and computer science, the authors argue that forecasting involves an interdependence of humans and technologies. Human expertise will always be necessary.

The Cambridge Aerospace Dictionary is an authoritative and accessible reference useful to scholars and enthusiasts alike. This dictionary is an essential tool for professionals involved in the aerospace industry and flight, and for anyone who must read and understand the technical literature of the aerospace industry and about specific air and space craft. It is also an ideal reference for engineering and physics students encountering a subject replete with technical jargon and acronyms. Bill Gunston, one of the most widely read and respected aviation writers, has added more than 5,000 new terms and acronyms to this carefully updated volume. Terms used in the dictionary reflect the diverse and international nature of the aerospace industry and include brief explanations of aerospace materials and organizations. Gunston has scrupulously avoided terms specific to manufacturers, airlines, and armed forces in an effort to encourage clear communication and understanding among professionals.