The northward migration of the African monsoon rains in summer, associated with the seasonal march of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the plains south of the Sahara, is the most critical asset for the livelihoods of indigenous peoples and local economies of the Sahel. It is essential that climate science (and its publicly available database) play a key role in characterizing the variabilities of these rainfall patterns in space and time if sustainable life styles are to accommodate the expanding populations of the region. This study turns to the East Sahel of Sudan by analyzing over 100 years of historical rainfall data from three of the few long term standard WMO rain gauge stations in substantially different rainfall settings. From north to south, transecting the Sahel, the stations with their annual rainfall are Khartoum (130 mm); Kassala (280 mm); and Gedaref (600 mm). The conclusions challenge a popular notion that changing climate, drought and desertification in the East Sahel may have already accelerated the deterioration of its water resources. However, any evidence of a persistent and coherent regional trend of diminishing rainfall is obscure. Quite the contrary, the evidence demonstrates that the fluctuations of climate and weather patterns over the ensuing decades of the past century - at all temporal scales from days to years to decades - profoundly overwhelm any suggestion of a large-scale, coherent decrease (or increase) in rainfall. The implication is that, it is not long term change, but the highly localized interseasonal, interannual and multiannual variability of rainfall that poses the greatest and most immediate societal threat from naturally-induced causes; a process constantly destabilizing an agrarian economy struggling to survive in a climate that irregularly vacillates between years of drought and years of flooding. While this report may have some interest for climate scientists, it is primarily directed to a general readership (including students in public policy and anthropology) concerned with the availability of water in the Sahel, particularly the long term sustainability of local small-scale farms and transhumant pastoralism.

This volume offers a comprehensive survey and a close analysis of efforts to develop actionable climate information in support of vital decisions for climate adaptation, risk management and policy. Arising from submissions and discussion at the 2011 Open Science Conference (OSC) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), the book addresses research and intellectual challenges which span the full range of Program activities.

East Africa is one of the most diverse and interesting tropical area on the planet. It is home not only to the last great megafaunal assemblage, but also to human populations with the highest growth rates. This book draws on the expertise of leading ecologists, each intimately familiar with a particular set of East African ecosystems, to provide the first in-depth and integrated account of the ecology, management, threats, and conservation of these diverse ecosystems. Summarizing the tremendous wealth of scientific research that has come out of East Africa in the last few decades, each chapter analyzes a given ecosystem type, taking the reader through the basics of its ecology, its historical use (and misuse) by humans, and its prospects for conservation. Throughout the book, linkages and similarities among ecosystems are emphasized, the historical and contemporary role of humans in shaping these ecosystems is considered, fundamental principles of ecology are considered, and interesting case studies are highlighted. Students and researchers in ecology, conservation biology, and environmental sciences will find this book useful in their work.

Meteorology of tropical West Africa: the Forecasters’ Handbook presents the science and practice of weather forecasting for an important region of the tropics. Connecting basic theory with forecasting practice, the book provides a unique training volume for operational weather forecasters, and is also suitable for students of tropical meteorology. The West African region contains a number of archetypal climatic zones, meaning that the science of its weather and climate applies to many other tropical regions. West Africa also exhibits some of the world’s most remarkable weather systems, making it an inspiring region for students to investigate. The weather of West Africa affects human livelihoods on a daily basis, and can contribute to hardship, poverty and mortality. Therefore, the ability to understand and predict the weather has the potential to deliver significant benefits to both society and economies. The book includes comprehensive background material alongside documentation of weather forecasting methods. Many examples taken from observations of West African weather systems are included and online case-studies are referenced widely.

Combining studies of demography, climate change, technology and innovation, political development, new actors in international development, and global governance frameworks, this book highlights the major underlying determinants of change in the African context and key uncertainties about the continent's future development prospects.

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic. Other chapters have also been revised and cover exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, and time series analysis. There is now an expanded treatment of resampling tests and key analysis techniques, an updated discussion on ensemble forecasting, and a detailed chapter on forecast verification. In addition, the book includes new sections on maximum likelihood and on statistical simulation and contains current references to original research. Students will benefit from pedagogical features including worked examples, end-of-chapter exercises with separate solutions, and numerous illustrations and equations. This book will be of interest to researchers and students in the atmospheric sciences, including meteorology, climatology, and other geophysical disciplines. - Accessible presentation and explanation of techniques for atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing and forecasting - Many worked examples - End-of-chapter exercises, with answers provided

This book focuses on two complementary time-scales, the Holocene (approximately the last 11,500 years) and the last glacial-interglacial cycle (approximately the last 130,000 years) to synthesize evidence of climate variability at the regional and continental scale across Europe and Africa. This is the first examination of historical climate variations at such a scale, and thus sets a benchmark for future research.

Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.

This latest Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will again form the standard reference for all those concerned with climate change and its consequences, including students, researchers and policy makers in environmental science, meteorology, climatology, biology, ecology, atmospheric chemistry and environmental policy.

Drought draws together contributions from over 75 leading international researchers in the field to present the most comprehensive body of research on the physical and social dimensions of drought to date. Including an extensive range of case-studies covering the most drought-prone and most affected countries, the contributors examine new technology, planning methodologies and mitigation actions from recent drought experiences worldwide. Following a discussion of the critical concepts of drought, the work is divided into the following additional parts: · causes and predictability · monitoring and early warning techniques · impacts and assessment methodologies · links between drought and other global issues · conclusions and future challenges