Everly is a runner. In his case it’s a necessity, since he’s a griffin shifter, and selling him on the black market could earn someone a pretty penny. But Everly doesn’t fancy being sold, so he heads to Rosewood when someone tries to catch him again. Kyle is a protector, not a lawyer or a doctor like his mother wants him to be. That’s why he signed up for the new security team his alpha put together. It’s just his luck that he’s the one who finds Everly when the man walks into pack territory. It’s not until later that they realize they’re mates. Everly wants Rosewood to become his home, but he’s never had one, and there are still people after him. He’s been dealing with this for the past ten years, and he doesn’t need anyone to protect him. Or maybe he does. Kyle wants Everly to stay, and Everly wants the same. Will they be able to make Rosewood safe for Everly and all the other rare shifters out there, or will they fail and lose each other?

How statistical data is used, misused, and abused every day to fool us: “A very entertaining book about a very serious problem.” —Robert J. Shiller, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Irrational Exuberance Did you know that baseball players whose names begin with “D” are more likely to die young? That Asian Americans are most susceptible to heart attacks on the fourth day of the month? That drinking a full pot of coffee every morning adds years to your life, but one cup a day increases your pancreatic cancer risk? These “facts” have been argued with a straight face by credentialed researchers and backed up with reams of data and convincing statistics. As Nobel Prize–winning economist Ronald Coase cynically observed, “If you torture data long enough, it will confess.” Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics and using clear examples, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around us. “An entertaining primer . . . packed with figures, tables, graphs and ludicrous examples from people who know better (academics, scientists) and those who don’t (political candidates, advertisers).” —Kirkus Reviews (starred review)

In April 2007, a report produced by the International Monetary Fund concluded that the world economy was in great shape only for the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression to hit just months later. How could economists have got it so wrong? When engineers try to understand complex systems, they are forced to make simplifying assumptions. Sadly if these are flawed, no amount of mathematical wizardry will repair the damage. This book examines the possibility that the problem with economics stems from flawed assumptions. It appears that mainstream economics set off on the wrong foot.This book uncovers many such flaws and shows how the resulting bad economic theories have devastating consequences.Dr Michael Reiss shows how, with more realistic assumptions, economics, and our economic system, can be rescued.

Assumptions made to anticipate problems and solutions can be helpful but they require calibration over time. Checking their assumptions allows project managers to become more resilient to comments and reactions. Contributing editor Sheilina Somani, PMP, reviews strategies project managers can use to empathize, predict and anticipate with teams.

Can a nation accept limits in an arms competition? James H. Lebovic explores the logic of seeking peace in an arms race. Flawed Logics offers a compelling intellectual history of U.S.-Russian strategic nuclear arms control. Lebovic thoroughly reviews the critical role of ideas and assumptions in U.S. arms control debates, tying them to controversies over U.S. nuclear strategy from the birth of the atomic age to the present. Each nuclear arms treaty—from the Truman to the Obama administration—is assessed in depth and the positions of proponents and opponents are systematically presented, discussed, and critiqued. Lebovic concludes that the terms of these treaties with the Russians were never as good as U.S. proponents claimed nor as bad as opponents feared. The comprehensive analysis in Flawed Logics is objective and balanced, challenging the logic of hawks and doves, Democrats and Republicans, and theorists of all schools with equal vigor. Lebovic’s controversial argument will promote debate as to the very plausibility of arms control.

"The most comprehensive book available for the Logic Reasoning section of the LSAT. This book will provide you with an advanced system for attacking any Logical Reasoning question that you may encounter on the LSAT."--

A timely and accessible guide to 100 of the most infamous logical fallacies in Western philosophy, helping readers avoid and detect false assumptions and faulty reasoning You’ll love this book or you’ll hate it. So, you’re either with us or against us. And if you’re against us then you hate books. No true intellectual would hate this book. Ever decide to avoid a restaurant because of one bad meal? Choose a product because a celebrity endorsed it? Or ignore what a politician says because she’s not a member of your party? For as long as people have been discussing, conversing, persuading, advocating, proselytizing, pontificating, or otherwise stating their case, their arguments have been vulnerable to false assumptions and faulty reasoning. Drawing upon a long history of logical falsehoods and philosophical flubs, Bad Arguments demonstrates how misguided arguments come to be, and what we can do to detect them in the rhetoric of others and avoid using them ourselves. Fallacies—or conclusions that don’t follow from their premise—are at the root of most bad arguments, but it can be easy to stumble into a fallacy without realizing it. In this clear and concise guide to good arguments gone bad, Robert Arp, Steven Barbone, and Michael Bruce take readers through 100 of the most infamous fallacies in Western philosophy, identifying the most common missteps, pitfalls, and dead-ends of arguments gone awry. Whether an instance of sunk costs, is ought, affirming the consequent, moving the goal post, begging the question, or the ever-popular slippery slope, each fallacy engages with examples drawn from contemporary politics, economics, media, and popular culture. Further diagrams and tables supplement entries and contextualize common errors in logical reasoning. At a time in our world when it is crucial to be able to identify and challenge rhetorical half-truths, this bookhelps readers to better understand flawed argumentation and develop logical literacy. Unrivaled in its breadth of coverage and a worthy companion to its sister volume Just the Arguments (2011), Bad Arguments is an essential tool for undergraduate students and general readers looking to hone their critical thinking and rhetorical skills.

“Profound, beautifully written, and inspiring. It proves that Nussbaum deserves her reputation as one of the greatest modern philosophers.” —Globe and Mail “At a time of growing national chauvinism, Martha Nussbaum’s excellent restatement of the cosmopolitan tradition is a welcome and much-needed contribution...Illuminating and thought-provoking.” —Times Higher Education The cosmopolitan political tradition in Western thought begins with the Greek Cynic Diogenes, who, when asked where he came from, said he was a citizen of the world. Rather than declare his lineage, social class, or gender, he defined himself as a human being, implicitly asserting the equal worth of all human beings. Martha Nussbaum pursues this “noble but flawed” vision and confronts its inherent tensions. The insight that politics ought to treat human beings both as equal and as having a worth beyond price is responsible for much that is fine in the modern Western political imagination. Yet given the global prevalence of material want, the conflicting beliefs of a pluralistic society, and the challenge of mass migration and asylum seekers, what political principles should we endorse? The Cosmopolitan Tradition urges us to focus on the humanity we share rather than on what divides us. “Lucid and accessible...In an age of resurgent nationalism, a study of the idea and ideals of cosmopolitanism is remarkably timely.” —Ryan Patrick Hanley, Journal of the History of Philosophy

The history of high consequence accidents is rich with events wherein the actions, or inaction, of humans was critical to the sequence of events preceding the accident. Moreover, it has been reported that human error may contribute to 80% of accidents, if not more (dougherty and Fragola, 1988). Within the safety community, this reality is widely recognized and there is a substantially greater awareness of the human contribution to system safety today than has ever existed in the past. Despite these facts, and some measurable reduction in accident rates, when accidents do occur, there is a common lament. No matter how hard we try, we continue to have accidents. Accompanying this lament, there is often bewilderment expressed in statements such as, ''There's no explanation for why he/she did what they did''. It is believed that these statements are a symptom of inadequacies in how they think about humans and their role within technological systems. In particular, while there has never been a greater awareness of human factors, conceptual models of human involvement in engineered systems are often incomplete and in some cases, inaccurate.