Economic policies, not initial conditions, determine whether countries stagnate. The black market premium on foreign exchange is an important factor in stagnation.

Efficient and equitable policies for managing disaster risks and adapting to global environmental change are critically dependent on development of robust options supported by integrated modeling. The book is based on research and state-of-the art models developed at IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and within its cooperation network. It addresses the methodological complexities of assessing disaster risks, which call for stochastic simulation, optimization methods and economic modeling. Furthermore, it describes policy frameworks for integrated disaster risk management, including stakeholder participation facilitated by user-interactive decision-support tools. Applications and results are presented for a number of case studies at different problem scales and in different socio-economic contexts, and their implications for loss sharing policies and economic development are discussed. Among others, the book presents studies for insurance policies for earthquakes in the Tuscany region in Italy and flood risk in the Tisza river basin in Hungary. Further, it investigates the economic impact of natural disasters on development and possible financial coping strategies; and applications are shown for selected South Asian countries. The book is addressed both to researchers and to organizations involved with catastrophe risk management and risk mitigation policies.

Why economists' attempts to help poorer countries improve their economic well-being have failed. Since the end of World War II, economists have tried to figure out how poor countries in the tropics could attain standards of living approaching those of countries in Europe and North America. Attempted remedies have included providing foreign aid, investing in machines, fostering education, controlling population growth, and making aid loans as well as forgiving those loans on condition of reforms. None of these solutions has delivered as promised. The problem is not the failure of economics, William Easterly argues, but the failure to apply economic principles to practical policy work. In this book Easterly shows how these solutions all violate the basic principle of economics, that people—private individuals and businesses, government officials, even aid donors—respond to incentives. Easterly first discusses the importance of growth. He then analyzes the development solutions that have failed. Finally, he suggests alternative approaches to the problem. Written in an accessible, at times irreverent, style, Easterly's book combines modern growth theory with anecdotes from his fieldwork for the World Bank.

In the domain of science concerned with systems structure and behavior, the issue of the relationship between the micro and the macro level is of key importance. This book concentrates on the interplay between these levels and has a special focus on the level OC in betweenOCO OCo the meso level. An investigation of those links is made through a number of cases from different domains of science, including physics, chemistry, ecology, social science, economics and technology. What is evident is that there are facets regarding meso-level issues that are similar between cases, but also that the domains differ in various ways. This is particularly exemplified by the differences in perspectives from which the natural and social sciences deal with scaling issues. The various examples provided in this book mirror its overriding theme: systems complexity."

Adjustment programs will fail when they do not recognize the interdependence of the three criteria of efficiency, welfare, and political feasibility. These programs must be tailored to both the political and economic environments of each country.

The costs of the present system of price stabilization of raw jute by Bangladesh's public sector do not yield the expected benefits. Price stabilization could be better handled by the private sector. In any case, the loss of welfare to jute growers from price fluctuations is small.

Measuring bank efficiency is difficult because there is no satisfactory definition of bank output. International comparisons based on operating costs and margins are fraught with problems. These stem from substantial differences in capital structure (leverage), business or product mix, range and quality of services, inflation rates, and accounting conventions (especially about the valuation of assets, the level of loan loss provisioning, and the use of hidden reserves). Facile and uncritical use of ratios cannot substitute for detailed knowledge and understanding of banking structure and practice.

Economic initiative has passed from the center to the republics, some of which have already moved from legislation to implementation of their own republic divestiture policies. In an optimistic scenario, this trend will continue. But even under the most pessimistic scenario, it is unlikely that privatization processes identified in this study will be stopped.

These recommendations for the nineties focus on changing Bank strategies, not Bank policy.

Correlations across openness measures are sometimes weak, but openness does seem to be positively associated with GDP growth - the more open the economy, the higher the growth.