Direction of Trade Statistics, September 2018

This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.

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This paper discusses that shipments to and from free-trade zones and bonded warehouses, exclusion of military and other confidential items and government goods, value thresholds for customs registration of shipments, returned goods, and other goods missed by customs (or surveys) are examples of coverage differences that can result in inconsistencies. As a result of reporting and processing lags, trade data for a given period are often released before all customs documents for the period have been processed. These data are sometimes not revised, or, if data are revised, errors are nevertheless made in assigning the date on which goods are shipped or received and the late data are assigned to the wrong month, quarter, and/or year. Errors can also be made in assigning a destination to exports and an origin to imports during customs clearances, or in cases when the ultimate destination is changed after the initial consignment during transshipment, the change is not incorporated into published statistics via the release of revised data.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

How the smartphone can become a personal concierge (not a stalker) in the mobile marketing revolution of smarter companies, value-seeking consumers, and curated offers. Consumers create a data trail by tapping their phones; businesses can tap into this trail to harness the power of the more than three trillion dollar mobile economy. According to Anindya Ghose, a global authority on the mobile economy, this two-way exchange can benefit both customers and businesses. In Tap, Ghose welcomes us to the mobile economy of smartphones, smarter companies, and value-seeking consumers. Drawing on his extensive research in the United States, Europe, and Asia, and on a variety of real-world examples from companies including Alibaba, China Mobile, Coke, Facebook, SK Telecom, Telefónica, and Travelocity, Ghose describes some intriguingly contradictory consumer behavior: people seek spontaneity, but they are predictable; they find advertising annoying, but they fear missing out; they value their privacy, but they increasingly use personal data as currency. When mobile advertising is done well, Ghose argues, the smartphone plays the role of a personal concierge—a butler, not a stalker. Ghose identifies nine forces that shape consumer behavior, including time, crowdedness, trajectory, and weather, and he examines these how these forces operate, separately and in combination. With Tap, he highlights the true influence mobile wields over shoppers, the behavioral and economic motivations behind that influence, and the lucrative opportunities it represents. In a world of artificial intelligence, augmented and virtual reality, wearable technologies, smart homes, and the Internet of Things, the future of the mobile economy seems limitless.

The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Growth prospects in the region are upbeat, buoyed by favorable demand at home and abroad. A strong performance in 2017 reflected a surge in exports, which will likely abate this year and next, and rapidly expanding domestic demand. While the outlook is for steady growth, risks to it are decidedly on the downside: Trade friction could weaken recently deepened trade links, tightening US monetary policy could diminish investment in developing Asia, and rising domestic private debt may hamper growth. New technologies drive higher productivity, the foundation for economic growth, better-paid jobs, and poverty reduction. The latest technologies in robotics and artificial intelligence may threaten some jobs, however, and leave less-skilled workers behind. To maximize gains in productivity while safeguarding social welfare, governments in developing Asia should protect workers but not preserve particular jobs. Meanwhile, they should facilitate the countervailing forces in new technologies that generate new jobs. Dealing with the downsides of new technology requires synchronized effort on skills development, labor regulation, social protection, and income redistribution.