The Newtonian mindset has dominated the entire human world for more than three centuries. It has provided the necessary knowledge, theories and conceptual foundation that supported the industrial revolution, hierarchical leadership and governance, deliberate planning and strategy, and operational control of all organizations. However, over the last few decades, constraints and incoherency are emerging due to new accelerants and elevating complexity density. The new situation and dynamics, and the multi-dimensional changes require a fresh thinking and deeper comprehension that is beyond the boundaries of the exact sciences. As the continuality of human existence requires a new global order to be established, a paradigmatic shift is essential. This book provides the foundation for nurturing the new intelligence mindset that is critical in the present context. Fundamentally, the intelligence mindset encompasses intelligence/consciousness-centricity, complexity-centricity, network-centricity and stability-centricity, and constructionist thinking as its foundation pillars. The conceptual foundation of this new paradigmatic shift is presented as the intelligent organization theory, and the theory of relativistic complexity. The intelligent organization theory (encompassing iCAS, iCAD, self-centricity, stability-centricity, organizing around intelligence, localized order,..., mental cohesion) also provides a conceptual foundation to certain thinking and dynamics associated with Brexit and the current US under President Donald Trump.

This book offers a vast conceptual and theoretical exploration of the ways intelligence analysis must change in order to succeed against today's most dangerous combatants and most complex irregular theatres of conflict. Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments fills a void in the existing literature on contemporary warfare by examining the theoretical and conceptual foundations of effective modern intelligence analysis—the type of analysis needed to support military operations in modern, complex operational environments. This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace. Intelligence Analysis proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system interprets intelligence, drawing on the groundbreaking work of theorists ranging from Carl von Clauswitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, Richards Heuer, Jr., Orson Scott Card, and others. The new ideas presented here will help the nation to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, with distinct advantages over any and all adversaries of the future regardless of the level of war or type of operational environment.

Melanie Mitchell separates science fact from science fiction in this sweeping examination of the current state of AI and how it is remaking our world No recent scientific enterprise has proved as alluring, terrifying, and filled with extravagant promise and frustrating setbacks as artificial intelligence. The award-winning author Melanie Mitchell, a leading computer scientist, now reveals AI’s turbulent history and the recent spate of apparent successes, grand hopes, and emerging fears surrounding it. In Artificial Intelligence, Mitchell turns to the most urgent questions concerning AI today: How intelligent—really—are the best AI programs? How do they work? What can they actually do, and when do they fail? How humanlike do we expect them to become, and how soon do we need to worry about them surpassing us? Along the way, she introduces the dominant models of modern AI and machine learning, describing cutting-edge AI programs, their human inventors, and the historical lines of thought underpinning recent achievements. She meets with fellow experts such as Douglas Hofstadter, the cognitive scientist and Pulitzer Prize–winning author of the modern classic Gödel, Escher, Bach, who explains why he is “terrified” about the future of AI. She explores the profound disconnect between the hype and the actual achievements in AI, providing a clear sense of what the field has accomplished and how much further it has to go. Interweaving stories about the science of AI and the people behind it, Artificial Intelligence brims with clear-sighted, captivating, and accessible accounts of the most interesting and provocative modern work in the field, flavored with Mitchell’s humor and personal observations. This frank, lively book is an indispensable guide to understanding today’s AI, its quest for “human-level” intelligence, and its impact on the future for us all.

This book examines the theoretical and conceptual foundation of effective modern intelligence collection—the strategies required to support intelligence analysis of the modern, complex operational environments of today's military conflicts or competitive civilian situations such as business. Just as the old rules of conventional warfare and intelligence analysis do not apply fully in the 21st-century environment, neither does the traditional methodology of collecting intelligence on these elusive, adapting foes operating as complex adaptive systems (CAS)—adversaries that excel in today's complex contexts. Intelligence Collection: How To Plan and Execute Intelligence Collection In Complex Environments proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system collects intelligence and supports intelligence analysis. The work draws on the groundbreaking work of a diverge group of theorists ranging from Carl von Clausewitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, and Orson Scott Card, communicating a unifying theory and ontology of thought for how America's intelligence collection professionals must learn to collect data as our country faces elusive, determined, and smart adversaries in nonlinear, dynamic environments. The new ideas presented will help the nation's intelligence collection specialists to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, regardless of the level of war or the type of operational environment.

Whether you are a student or a working professional, you can benefit from being better at solving the complex problems that come up in your life. Strategic Thinking in Complex Problem Solving provides a general framework and the necessary tools to help you do so. Based on his groundbreaking course at Rice University, engineer and former strategy consultant Arnaud Chevallier provides practical ways to develop problem solving skills, such as investigating complex questions with issue maps, using logic to promote creativity, leveraging analogical thinking to approach unfamiliar problems, and managing diverse groups to foster innovation. This book breaks down the resolution process into four steps: 1) frame the problem (identifying what needs to be done), 2) diagnose it (identifying why there is a problem, or why it hasn't been solved yet), 3) identify and select potential solutions (identifying how to solve the problem), and 4) implement and monitor the solution (resolving the problem, the 'do'). For each of these four steps - the what, why, how, and do - this book explains techniques that promotes success and demonstrates how to apply them on a case study and in additional examples. The featured case study guides you through the resolution process, illustrates how these concepts apply, and creates a concrete image to facilitate recollection. Strategic Thinking in Complex Problem Solving is a tool kit that integrates knowledge based on both theoretical and empirical evidence from many disciplines, and explains it in accessible terms. As the book guides you through the various stages of solving complex problems, it also provides useful templates so that you can easily apply these approaches to your own personal projects. With this book, you don't just learn about problem solving, but how to actually do it.

With Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson have updated their highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques. This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis, including: How do I get started? Where is the information I need? What is my argument? How do I convey my message effectively? The Third Edition includes suggested best practices for dealing with digital disinformation, politicization, and AI. Drawing upon their years of teaching and analytic experience, Pherson and Pherson provide a useful introduction to skills that are essential within the intelligence community.

"a provocative new book" — The New York Times AI-centric organizations exhibit a new operating architecture, redefining how they create, capture, share, and deliver value. Now with a new preface that explores how the coronavirus crisis compelled organizations such as Massachusetts General Hospital, Verizon, and IKEA to transform themselves with remarkable speed, Marco Iansiti and Karim R. Lakhani show how reinventing the firm around data, analytics, and AI removes traditional constraints on scale, scope, and learning that have restricted business growth for hundreds of years. From Airbnb to Ant Financial, Microsoft to Amazon, research shows how AI-driven processes are vastly more scalable than traditional processes, allow massive scope increase, enabling companies to straddle industry boundaries, and create powerful opportunities for learning—to drive ever more accurate, complex, and sophisticated predictions. When traditional operating constraints are removed, strategy becomes a whole new game, one whose rules and likely outcomes this book will make clear. Iansiti and Lakhani: Present a framework for rethinking business and operating models Explain how "collisions" between AI-driven/digital and traditional/analog firms are reshaping competition, altering the structure of our economy, and forcing traditional companies to rearchitect their operating models Explain the opportunities and risks created by digital firms Describe the new challenges and responsibilities for the leaders of both digital and traditional firms Packed with examples—including many from the most powerful and innovative global, AI-driven competitors—and based on research in hundreds of firms across many sectors, this is your essential guide for rethinking how your firm competes and operates in the era of AI.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

This book offers a structured framework for critical thinking and decision making that shows how to use hindsight, insight, and foresight to navigate through complexity. Every organization and every person faces rapid change and complexity. Contextual intelligence – understanding fully the context in which one is operating – teaches the reader how to navigate that complexity and respond appropriately in the face of change (expected and unexpected). The Three-Dimensional (3D) ThinkingTM framework helps structure critical thinking by showing how to appropriately bring past experience, present intuition, and future ambiguity– in other words: hindsight, insight, and foresight – to bear on any given problem. Kutz offers a way to rationally organize difficult concepts such as complexity, tacit knowledge, and synchronicity into usable and understandable language, but more importantly teaches the reader how to apply these concepts in a very practical and meaningful way with measurable and tangible outcomes. The book also describes in detail 12 behaviors associated with contextual intelligence. Four behaviors are associated with hindsight, four behaviors are associated with insight, and four behaviors are associated with foresight. The book takes the reader through the 12 behaviors and how they relate to 3D Thinking. Cases and anecdotes are used generously to provide examples. Chapters are followed by critical thinking questions and questions related to the cases in the chapters. Furthermore, questions and practical tools are introduced that help the reader assess and determine their level of contextual intelligence.

This is the eBook of the printed book and may not include any media, website access codes, or print supplements that may come packaged with the bound book. Artificial Intelligence: Structures and Strategies for Complex Problem Solving is ideal for a one- or two-semester undergraduate course on AI. In this accessible, comprehensive text, George Luger captures the essence of artificial intelligence–solving the complex problems that arise wherever computer technology is applied. Ideal for an undergraduate course in AI, the Sixth Edition presents the fundamental concepts of the discipline first then goes into detail with the practical information necessary to implement the algorithms and strategies discussed. Readers learn how to use a number of different software tools and techniques to address the many challenges faced by today’s computer scientists.