China’s military development has become a key focus of US security policy as well as that of virtually all Asia-Pacific states. This report from the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy examines trends in Chinese strategy, military spending, and military forces based on Chinese defense white papers and other official Chinese sources; US reporting by the Department of Defense and other defense agencies; and other government sources, including Japanese and Korean defense white papers and the International Monetary Fund. The analysis also draws on the work of experts outside of government, various research centers, and nongovernmental organizations.

China’s emergence as a global economic superpower, and as a major regional military power in Asia and the Pacific, has had a major impact on its relations with the United States and its neighbors. China was the driving factor in the new strategy the United States announced in 2012 that called for a “rebalance” of U.S. forces to the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, China’s actions on its borders, in the East China Sea, and in the South China Sea have shown that it is steadily expanding its geopolitical role in the Pacific and having a steadily increasing impact on the strategy and military developments in other Asian powers.

This report udates the analysis of the trends in Chinese military strategy and forces. This is the final draft before publication, and any comments will be gratefully received. The goal behind this report is not to present the authors' view of the balance, but rather to provide the basis for an unclassified dialogue on the military developments in China, including the size and structure of the country's current and planned military forces. It draws on official US, Chinese, and other Asian official reporting, as well as the work of other scholars and the data bases developed by the IISS and Jane's in an effort to compare different views of Chinese strategy and military developments, and is meant to provide US, Chinese, and other analysts with a better basis for understanding Western estimates of the changes in Chinese force strength and force quality.

Examining Chinese intentions and the means they have to achieve those intentions, this volume begins with Roger Ames's essay analyzing the Chinese military through from the earliest times

Through extensive primary source analysis and independent analysis, this report seeks to answer a number of important questions regarding the state of China’s armed forces. The authors found that the PLA is keenly aware of its many weaknesses and is vigorously striving to correct them. Although it is only natural to focus on the PLA’s growing capabilities, understanding the PLA’s weaknesses—and its self-assessments—is no less important.

China is modernizing her military very rapidly and as her economy strengthens, the pace of military modernization is going to touch higher trajectories. This modernization would impact and alter the existing strategic environment in the world. In the region the impact will be more profound and will force her neighbors to rework their own military modernization programs, war fighting doctrines and their present position on relations with China and other regional powers and the US. Today, in addition to issues relating to human resource development, the biggest impediment is the availability of technology to develop new modern weapon systems and equipment. Will the drivers and trends of Chinese military modernization continue to be same or will there be changes? How will the modernization impact the PLA behavior, especially in its neighborhood? How will the neighbors react to this stupendous pace of militarization in the East Asia? What will be the role of Japan, Vietnam, India, Russia and US? How will china's restive periphery and PLA respond to the spread of Islamic fundamentalism? To correctly appreciate these changes, an in-depth understanding of Chinese military modernization is essential. This book is an effort in this direction and attempts to find some answers to the questions posed. The trends of modernization of the four services of the PLA have been analyzed and a capability suggested that the PLA is likely to have by 2025.

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has embarked on its most wide-ranging and ambitious restructuring since 1949, including major changes to most of its key organizations. The restructuring reflects the desire to strengthen PLA joint operation capabilities- on land, sea, in the air, and in the space and cyber domains. The reforms could result in a more adept joint warfighting force, though the PLA will continue to face a number of key hurdles to effective joint operations, Several potential actions would indicate that the PLA is overcoming obstacles to a stronger joint operations capability. The reforms are also intended to increase Chairman Xi Jinping's control over the PLA and to reinvigorate Chinese Communist Party (CCP) organs within the military. Xi Jinping's ability to push through reforms indicates that he has more authority over the PLA than his recent predecessors. The restructuring could create new opportunities for U.S.-China military contacts.

Annotation The most thorough overview of the Chinese defense programs and Sino-American military relations by a leading authority.