China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.

China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.

China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.

This paper examines gender inequality in the context of structural transformation and rebalancing in China. We document declining women's relative wages and labor force participation in China during the last two decades, despite rapid growth and expansion of the service sector. Using household data, we provide evidence consistent with a U-shaped relationship between economic development and women's labor market outcomes. Using a model of structural transformation, we show that labor market barriers for women have increased over time. Model counterfactuals suggest that removing these barriers and increasing service sector productivity can boost both gender equality and economic growth in China.

Prior to the initiation of economic reforms and trade liberalization 36 years ago, China maintained policies that kept the economy very poor, stagnant, centrally-controlled, vastly inefficient, and relatively isolated from the global economy. Since opening up to foreign trade and investment and implementing free market reforms in 1979, China has been among the world's fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging nearly 10% through 2016. In recent years, China has emerged as a major global economic power. It is now the world's largest economy (on a purchasing power parity basis), manufacturer, merchandise trader, and holder of foreign exchange reserves.The global economic crisis that began in 2008 greatly affected China's economy. China's exports, imports, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows declined, GDP growth slowed, and millions of Chinese workers reportedly lost their jobs. The Chinese government responded by implementing a $586 billion economic stimulus package and loosening monetary policies to increase bank lending. Such policies enabled China to effectively weather the effects of the sharp global fall in demand for Chinese products, but may have contributed to overcapacity in several industries and increased debt by Chinese firms and local government. China's economy has slowed in recent years. Real GDP growth has slowed in each of the past six years, dropping from 10.6% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2016, and is projected to slow to 5.7% by 2022.The Chinese government has attempted to steer the economy to a "new normal" of slower, but more stable and sustainable, economic growth. Yet, concerns have deepened in recent years over the health of the Chinese economy. On August 11, 2015, the Chinese government announced that the daily reference rate of the renminbi (RMB) would become more "market-oriented." Over the next three days, the RMB depreciated against the dollar and led to charges that China's goal was to boost exports to help stimulate the economy (which some suspect is in worse shape than indicated by official Chinese economic statistics). Concerns over the state of the Chinese economy appear to have often contributed to volatility in global stock indexes in recent years.The ability of China to maintain a rapidly growing economy in the long run will likely depend largely on the ability of the Chinese government to implement comprehensive economic reforms that more quickly hasten China's transition to a free market economy; rebalance the Chinese economy by making consumer demand, rather than exporting and fixed investment, the main engine of economic growth; boost productivity and innovation; address growing income disparities; and enhance environmental protection. The Chinese government has acknowledged that its current economic growth model needs to be altered and has announced several initiatives to address various economic challenges. In November 2013, the Communist Party of China held the Third Plenum of its 18th Party Congress, which outlined a number of broad policy reforms to boost competition and economic efficiency. For example, the communique stated that the market would now play a "decisive" role in allocating resources in the economy. At the same time, however, the communique emphasized the continued important role of the state sector in China's economy. In addition, many foreign firms have complained that the business climate in China has worsened in recent years. Thus, it remains unclear how committed the Chinese government is to implementing new comprehensive economic reforms.China's economic rise has significant implications for the United States and hence is of major interest to Congress. This report provides background on China's economic rise; describes its current economic structure; identifies the challenges China faces to maintain economic growth; and discusses the challenges, opportunities, and implications of China's economic rise.

People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues

People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues

Financial crime in Canada remains a mystery: omnipresent, but we know little about its operation. Transactions are cloaked with apparent legality, which makes tracking criminal activity through economic or financial statistics a complex undertaking. This distinctive volume aims to stem in-, out-, and through-flows of vast sums of dirty money by enhancing Canada’s capacity to detect, disrupt, deter, investigate, and prosecute domestic financial criminals and transnational organized criminal organizations. It brings together leading scholars and practitioners from the public and private sectors to identify and explore deficiencies in federal and provincial policy, regulation, legislation, politics, institutions, and enforcement, as well as the international financial crime regime. Together contributors pinpoint weaknesses that have turned the Canadian federation into a destination of choice for global financial crime, where its perpetrators can operate with impunity. Dirty Money reveals how globalization and technology have spun an extensive web of clandestine processes that disguises how financial criminals operate, the channels they use, and how they suborn banks and institutions. In the process, the extent of financial crime in Canada and its corrosive effects on communities, democratic institutions, and prosperity becomes apparent. Contributors: Sanaa Ahmed, John Cassara, Garry Clement, Arthur J. Cockfield, Caroline Dugas, Jamie Ferrill, Cameron Field, Michelle Gallant, Peter German, Rhianna Hamilton, Todd Hataley, Caitlyn Jenkins, Christian Leuprecht, David Maimon, Katarzyna (Kasia) Mcnaughton, Denis Meunier, Pierre-Luc Pomerleau, Stephen Schneider, Jeffrey Simser.

In eleven chapters this book addresses the issue of the re-emergence of China and a new global order on the world stage, with implications for the existing US hegemonic liberal international order. The Re-Emergence of China reviews the history of China's astounding economic growth and geopolitical development over the past 30 years. It explores the economic, technological, and global development of China during this period; explores the political philosophy and praxis from imperial neo-Confucian times to the present socialist regime; the cultural and social development of China and the role of the Chinese diaspora; and examines the prospects for a new international order with a major role for China.This book will fit comfortably into the required reading schedule for graduate class modules in Chinese and East Asian studies, political theory, economic development, and contemporary political history. Of particular interest will be the exploration of the role of the Chinese diaspora in modern China's development. The authors' focus on the contemporary conflict between the US and China will also be of wider interest to political commentators as well as academic researchers in Chinese studies.The Re-Emergence of China can provide a guiding narrative for academics, researchers, policymakers, industry leaders and many other relevant professionals on how global society can be reshaped in the wake of China's re-emergence in the new global era. By focusing on China's integration with the economic and political world order, in terms of both its advances and setbacks, in addition to the historical contexts, readers can navigate the book's succinct coverage and conclusions on the development of a China polity which has become increasingly connected to the world in some ways, yet more disconnected in others.Related Link(s)

In this unique book, Sten Söderman explores the prospect of China reaching its goal of hosting the 2050 World Cup. Söderman takes into consideration China’s size, resources, traditions and political system to ask what needs to be done and how.