Citizens’ aspirations for the future are politically important; they are linked to welfare and whether citizens engage in forward-looking political and economic behavior. How do natural disasters affect aspirations, and can governments’ social protection policies successfully mitigate any damaging effects? If natural disasters threaten aspirations, there is strong policy interest in understanding these threats and what government can do to protect aspirations. This article uses Pakistan’s 2010 floods to identify the effects of a natural disaster on citizens’ aspirations. Aspirations were significantly reduced—especially among the poorest and most vulnerable. However, by exploiting exogenous variation in access to targeted government social protection, the authors show that social protection following natural disasters can significantly reduce their negative aspirational effects. This offers a new understanding of government social protection. It not only raises social welfare in the short term by restoring livelihoods and replacing damaged assets; it also has an enduring effect by raising citizens’ aspirations for the future. The authors show not only that the aspirations of citizens matter for citizens’ behaviors, but also that government policies can effectively protect and increase those aspirations. This implies that the value and efficacy of government disaster relief programs are underestimated when aspirations are not taken into account.

Historically, agriculture has been crucial to Pakistan's economic growth and development and remains so even today. The sector employs almost half of the country's labor force, supplies key inputs to the country's manufacturing sector, generates a significant share of export earnings, and nourishes a rapidly growing population. Further, beyond agriculture is the wider rural economy, including nonfarm economic activities such as small enterprises, transport services, village retail shops, local schools, and clinics, all of which account for an estimated 40 to 57 percent of total rural household income. Given the importance of these rural activities, the slow growth of agriculture in recent years—averaging just 2.8 percent during the period 2010-2014—should be a source of concern for Pakistan. Can the country's agricultural sector and rural economy once again play a significant role in growth and development? Can it contribute to poverty reduction? Agriculture and the Rural Economy in Pakistan: Issues, Outlooks, and Policy Priorities seeks to answer these questions by examining the performance of both agriculture and the rural economy. The authors identify several measures that can promote agricultural productivity growth as well as wider economic and social development. These include increasing the efficiency of water use in the Indus river basin irrigation system, especially in the face of climate change; reforming policies and regulations that govern markets for agricultural inputs and commodities; and improving the provision of rural public services for health, education, women's empowerment, and community development. The analyses and conclusions in Agriculture and the Rural Economy in Pakistan will be of use to policy makers, development specialists, and others concerned with Pakistan's development. Contributors: Madiha Afzal, Nuzhat Ahmad, Faryal Ahmed, Mubarik Ali, Shujat Ali, Elena Briones Alonso, Hira Channa, Stephen Davies, Paul Dorosh, Gisselle Gajate Garrido, Arthur Gueneau, Madeeha Hameed, Brian Holtemeyer, Huma Khan, Katrina Kosec, Mehrab Malek, Sohail J. Malik, Shuaib Malik, Amina Mehmood, Dawit Mekonnen, Hina Nazli, Sara Rafi, Muhammad Ahsan Rana, Abdul Wajid Rana, Danielle Resnick, Khalid Riaz, Abdul Salam, Emily Schmidt, Asma Shahzad, David J. Spielman, James Thurlow, Ahmad Waqas, Edward Whitney, Fatima Zaidi.